September 30th, London Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

The Financial Source Podcast

Show Notes – Market & News Briefing (30 Sept 2025)

Overview:
Today’s episode covers fresh FX dynamics, commodity market moves, tariff announcements from Washington, and major geopolitical shifts in Gaza and Ukraine.

Topics Covered:

• FX & Central Banks:
  • Dollar steady around the 98 mark, with shutdown risks and tariff headlines shaping sentiment.
  • Euro flat, sterling held above 1.34 ahead of BoE speakers.
  • USD/JPY steady but nudged by a BoJ Summary of Opinions that carried hawkish undertones.
  • AUD gained after the RBA struck a hawkish tone despite keeping rates unchanged; firmer CNY fixing supported both AUD and NZD.
  • PBoC set yuan midpoint at 7.1055, slightly firmer than expected.
• Commodities:
  • Oil fell as OPEC+ was reported to be considering an output hike and Iraq resumed Kurdish exports to Turkey after more than two years.
  • Gold surged past $3,850/oz, supported by haven demand tied to fiscal and geopolitical uncertainty.
  • Copper slipped modestly on tariff-related sentiment and softer risk appetite.
• Trade & Tariffs:
  • White House confirmed new tariffs:
    • 10% on timber and lumber from Oct 14.
    • 25% on vanities, kitchen cabinets, and upholstered products from Oct 14.
    • Cabinet tariffs rising to 50% and upholstered furniture to 30% on Jan 1, unless deals are reached.
  • Switzerland offered to invest in U.S. gold refining to reduce its 39% tariff burden.
  • South Korea noted challenges in securing a U.S. FX swap arrangement.
• Geopolitics:
  • White House unveiled a 20-point Gaza peace plan, outlining phased Israeli withdrawal, suspension of hostilities, and hostage release within 72 hours of agreement.
  • President Trump said a deal is “beyond very close” but pledged full U.S. backing for Israel if Hamas rejects it.
  • A Dutch-flagged cargo ship was hit by an explosive device in the Gulf of Aden, injuring two crew and highlighting ongoing maritime risks.
  • Russian President Putin reaffirmed commitment to the Ukraine war, calling it a righteous battle Russia will win.

Why It Matters:
Currency moves, tariff policy shifts, and renewed supply-side developments in energy are feeding into broader market volatility, while geopolitics from Gaza to Ukraine continues to frame global risk appetite.