September 30th, New York Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

The Financial Source Podcast

Show notes — FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics (Tue, Sept 30, 2025)

FX

• Dollar eases; euro and sterling firmer.
• Yen extends a three-day bid after a hawkish-leaning BoJ Summary of Opinions; USD/JPY dipped below its 200-DMA.
• RBA delivers a unanimous hold with a firmer tone on inflation risks; AUD supported.
• PBoC sets a stronger-than-expected fix, lending support to CNY.
• South Korea’s top security adviser says a U.S. dollar swap remains challenging.

Commodities

• Oil: Continues to slide on reports of increased OPEC+ supply and the expected restart of Iraq’s Ceyhan pipeline.
• Gold: Tagged another all-time high before profit-taking cooled gains.
• Metals: Copper rangebound; China reportedly bans all BHP iron ore cargoes amid a pricing dispute.

Trade & Tariffs

• White House signs a proclamation imposing a 10% tariff on softwood, timber and lumber imports from Oct 14; caps for EU/Japan wood products intended at 15%.
• New 25% tariffs on vanities and kitchen cabinets effective Oct 14; cabinet tariffs to 50% and certain upholstered furniture to 30% on Jan 1 unless deals are reached.
• EU Trade Commissioner says the EU and U.S. will “very soon” propose post-2026 steel safeguards using tariff-rate quotas to address overcapacity.

Geopolitics

• Washington shutdown talks show no breakthrough; major airlines warn a lapse could strain aviation and cause delays.
• Middle East: No certainty Hamas will accept a proposed deal despite backing from key Arab states.
• Russia-Ukraine: Putin vows Russia will prevail; Kyiv reports overnight missile and drone strikes and ongoing cross-border hits on energy infrastructure.

What’s next

• U.S. Consumer Confidence and JOLTS job openings.
• Central-bank speakers: RBA’s Bullock, ECB’s Cipollone/Elderson, Fed’s Goolsbee, BoE’s Lombardelli/Mann/Breeden.