September 29th, New York Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

The Financial Source Podcast

Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (29 Sep 2025)

Focus: FX, commodities, trade, and geopolitics.
Backdrop: Dollar eases into a data-heavy U.S. labor week amid U.S. shutdown risk; commodities diverge as oil softens and gold prints fresh highs.

FX

• USD: Softer, slipping below its 50-day average as focus shifts to U.S. jobs data later this week.
• EUR & GBP: Firmer on dollar weakness; limited fresh domestic catalysts early in the session.
• JPY: Leads G10 after BoJ’s Noguchi flagged rising upside risks and a heightened need to adjust policy; USD/JPY tested below 149 ahead of Tankan, the LDP leadership vote, and NFP.
• AUD/NZD: Mild rebound into Tuesday’s RBA meeting (low odds of a cut).
• CNY: Supported by a stronger-than-expected PBoC daily fix.

Commodities

• Crude oil: Lower on reports OPEC+ may lift October quotas by ≥137k bpd; added pressure from potential Iraq–Türkiye (Ceyhan) pipeline restart (~180–190k bpd), with Baghdad signaling capacity to raise exports once flows resume.
• Gold: Hits a new all-time high near $3,820/oz, supported by a weaker dollar, geopolitical tension, and U.S. fiscal uncertainty.
• Copper: Modestly firmer on the softer dollar; gains capped by caution into U.S. data.

Trade & Tariffs

• Pharma: White House indicates a 15% cap on pharma tariffs under EU/Japan trade deals; reports suggest the UK could face 100% tariffs absent an agreement. The UK is prepared to pay more for drugs to ease tensions.
• Agriculture: China halts U.S. soybean purchases, highlighting ongoing trade strain.
• Metals: EU considering tougher measures on UK steel—halving tariff-free quotas and doubling duties to 50%.
• Asia: South Korea rejected a U.S. request for $350bn in cash tied to a tariff-reduction deal.
• US–China: Beijing is expected to press Washington to restate opposition to Taiwan independence.

Geopolitics

• NATO/Northern Europe: Denmark reports unknown drones over multiple military sites; EU to draft plans for interlinked drone defenses; NATO to increase presence in the Baltics.
• Russia–Ukraine: Russia launched extended missile/drone strikes; Kyiv reports UAVs hit a Russian oil pumping station in Chuvashia; Poland briefly closed airspace during the overnight barrage. Zelensky expects new EU sanctions; Lavrov said there will be no return to 2022 borders.
• Middle East: U.S. 21-point Gaza plan reported near final (permanent ceasefire, staged Israeli withdrawal, new governance without Hamas, regional funding); Israeli officials note progress but say significant gaps remain.
• Iran: Bid to delay UN sanctions snapback failed at the Security Council; Tehran says nuclear energy remains a national need and it has not left the NPT; Europe warns against escalation.
• Korean Peninsula: South Korea fired warning shots at a North Korean commercial vessel crossing the maritime boundary.

What to Watch Next

• U.S. labor data all week culminating in NFP (Fri); potential U.S. government shutdown headlines.
• BoJ Tankan and LDP leadership vote (Japan).
• RBA decision (Tue).
• Heavy ECB/BoE/Fed speaker slate for guidance nuance.