September 29th, London Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

The Financial Source Podcast

Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics)

Summary:
A softer dollar into a data-heavy week, oil eases on potential OPEC+ quota hike and Iraq pipeline restart, gold tests record highs on policy and geopolitical risk, and trade tensions re-intensify from Washington to Brussels.

FX

• Dollar index dips below 98 ahead of ISM and Friday’s U.S. jobs report; positioning cautious.
• EUR edges higher on USD softness; GBP steadies above 1.34 with light domestic drivers.
• JPY firms as markets eye BoJ Tankan, U.S. NFP, and Japan’s leadership vote; USD/JPY slips through 149.
• AUD/NZD modestly firmer into the RBA decision; CNY supported by a stronger PBoC fix.

Commodities

• Oil: Pullback on reports OPEC+ may lift October quotas by ≥137k bpd; Iraq signals Ceyhan pipeline flows near 180–190k bpd and scope to raise exports thereafter.
• Gold: Pushes to fresh all-time highs above $3,800/oz on dollar drift, geopolitical tension, and U.S. fiscal uncertainty.
• Copper: Slight bid on weaker USD, capped by broader risk caution.
• Gas/LNG: Force majeure at several French LNG terminals limits ship reception.

Trade & Tariffs

• U.S. mulling device tariffs linked to the number of chips per product.
• Pharma duties clarified: capped for the EU/Japan under deals; UK faces 100% without an accord; London exploring higher drug payments to defuse dispute.
• U.S.–India talks “positive” but hinge on market access and Russian oil purchases; South Korea rejects large cash request tied to tariff reductions.
• China reportedly halts U.S. soybean purchases amid tensions; EU weighs tougher measures on UK steel quotas and duties.

Geopolitics

• NATO/Northern Europe: Drone incursions over Danish military sites prompt plans for an EU-wide networked drone defense; NATO to bolster Baltic presence.
• Russia–Ukraine: Russia conducts extended missile/drone barrage; Ukraine targets a Russian oil pumping station; Poland briefly closes airspace; Kyiv expects new EU sanctions.
• Middle East/Gaza: White House says a 21-point ceasefire/transition plan is near final; ongoing gaps reported with Israel over end-state terms.
• Iran: UN sanctions to snap back after delay effort fails; Tehran says it won’t abandon nuclear energy or the NPT.
• Asia: Beijing expected to press Washington to restate opposition to Taiwan independence; Korea tensions flare after warning shots at a North Korean vessel.

What to Watch

• U.S. ISM data and Friday’s jobs report for the dollar’s next leg.
• OPEC+ meeting (Oct 5) and Iraq pipeline headlines for oil.
• Gold near records on any risk flare-ups.
• Escalation or resolutions in tariff disputes (electronics, pharma, steel) and their FX/commodity spillovers.

One-line takeaway:
This week’s tone hinges on U.S. labor data while energy supply shifts, record-high gold, and a busy tariff and geopolitical slate keep FX and commodities on alert.