Understanding Market Cycles and Macroeconomic Themes: Insights from Franklin Templeton's Experts | Tao of Chao 18

The Tao of Chao Podcast

If you are a student of the market and interested in gaining insights into the cyclical and secular landscape, topics that are highly relevant in today's economic climate, please tune in to this episode of Tao of Chao.

The world is always uncertain, and Dr. Onsel Gulbiten offers her view on inflation, interest rate risks, and geopolitical challenges. Michael Salm provides his perspective on separating sovereign, private, corporate, and banking balance sheets to understand the marketplace and the general economic driver first and then, through relative value, make investment decisions.

Philip Chao addresses several macroeconomic themes with Dr. Onsel Gulbiten and how this macro view impacts Michael Salm's view on the market. Both Michael and Onsel are on the Franklin Templeton fixed income team, where Michael is the Head of Multi-Sector Strategy and Onsel specializes in analyzing macroeconomic, political, financial, and other policy developments in global markets.

DISCLOSURE: Views expressed in the Tao of Chao podcasts are individual opinions and they do not represent the employers of each guest or the firm with which each guest is associated. Our podcasts are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be deemed or viewed as investment advice or recommendations. Please consult your personal financial advisor, investment expert, or investment fiduciary before taking any actions about your plan and investments.

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1. Cold Open (00:00:00)

2. Introducing Michael Salm & Onsel Gulbiten (00:00:43)

3. Economic events every decade (00:03:07)

4. How is now different than downturns of the past? (00:04:37)

5. Metrics to look at when analyzing uncertainty (00:06:35)

6. Conflicting signals — are markets speeding up or slowing down? (00:07:08)

7. The impact of inflation (00:09:49)

8. Inflation in a post-pandemic economic environment (00:10:23)

9. Michael Salm's framework for uncertainty post GFC (00:14:40)

10. Liquidity and its impact on current markets (00:22:34)

11. Onsel's take on liquidity in today's economic environment (00:30:35)

12. Global liquidity vs US liquidity (00:32:18)

13. Divergence of cental banks (00:33:46)

14. Favorable investment paths in today's market (00:39:41)

15. Anticipating rates — higher or lower? (00:46:55)

16. Fact or fiction: the golden era for fixed income? (00:48:26)

17. Signals from US Budget and Defense Spending (00:50:44)

18. Hypothesis on where rates are headed (00:51:36)

19. Wrapping up (00:53:03)

20. EoS (00:54:31)

21. Legal Disclosure (00:54:53)