September 26th, New York Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

The Financial Source Podcast

Show notes — FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics (26 Sep 2025)

FX

• USD rally pauses ahead of U.S. PCE; EUR little changed despite ECB Survey showing higher 1-yr and 5-yr inflation expectations.
• USD/JPY stays firm after softer-than-expected but unchanged Tokyo CPI (2.5% y/y), keeping a test of 150 in view.
• GBP steadies after a choppy week; AUD/NZD broadly flat, with AUD capped by softer copper.
• PBoC sets a firmer-than-expected yuan fix; Japan’s FinMin Kato refrains from FX commentary.

Commodities

• Oil slightly lower in quiet trade.
• Gold rangebound just below recent highs as markets await PCE.
• Copper slips: Indonesia says Freeport’s Grasberg production has not resumed; stoppage affects output/revenue.
• France: force majeure at three LNG terminals due to a power-sector strike; ship reception blocked.
• Iraq in talks with Vitol to handle crude sales ahead of a potential Kurdish pipeline restart.

Trade & Tariffs

• New U.S. tariffs effective Oct 1, 2025:
  • 100% on branded/patented pharmaceuticals unless made in the U.S.
  • 50% on kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and related products.
  • 30% on upholstered furniture.
  • 25% on heavy trucks made outside the U.S.
• U.S. weighing tariff plan to push a 1:1 domestic vs. overseas semiconductor production ratio.
• TikTok: executive order signed; U.S. investors to control the algorithm; Oracle plays a major role.
• Japan says U.S. semiconductor/pharma tariffs on Japan won’t exceed those on others; Ankara says tariff revisions discussed with Washington.
• JBIC facility announced to support the Japan–U.S. USD 550bn investment package.

Geopolitics

• NATO/EU airspace: European officials privately warn Russia they’re prepared to shoot down jets after Estonia incursion; France offers help to Denmark after drone incursions.
• Ukraine: U.S. says Kyiv still has a shot at regaining territory; IAEA reports a drone detonated ~800m from the South Ukraine NPP perimeter amid heavy UAV activity.
• Russia oil flows: U.S. expects Turkey to halt purchases; acknowledges constraints for Hungary/Slovakia.
• Middle East: U.S. reports constructive Gaza talks; hints a hostage deal could be near; says it will not allow Israeli annexation of the West Bank. Iran conditions IAEA cooperation on no “hostile action,” while Iran and Russia agree on a USD 25bn plan to build four nuclear plants in Iran.
• Korea: South Korea fires warning shots at a North Korean commercial vessel that crossed the maritime border.