September 26th, London Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

The Financial Source Podcast

Show Notes — FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics Briefing (26 Sep 2025)

FX

• Dollar pauses ahead of PCE; Powell flagged headline PCE at 2.7% y/y and core at 2.9%.
• EUR/USD found support just below 1.1650, then edged back toward its 50-DMA near 1.1679.
• GBP/USD held a tight ~1.3350 range on a quiet U.K. docket.
• USD/JPY stayed firm after nearly 150.00; Tokyo CPI 2.5% y/y, softer than expected but unchanged from prior.
• AUD/NZD subdued; softer copper helped cap AUD rebounds.
• PBoC delivered a stronger-than-expected fix as U.S.–China trade/tech signals stayed in focus.

Commodities

• Crude modestly firmer; traders eye Russia’s partial diesel export ban and extended gasoline export ban, plus NATO-adjacent headlines.
• Gold a touch softer but within recent ranges as markets wait for PCE after this month’s run toward USD 3,800/oz.
• Copper retraced part of the Freeport-driven spike; tariff overhang and data caution tempered follow-through.

Tariffs & Trade

• U.S. unveils broad measures effective Oct 1, 2025: 100% tariff on branded/patented pharmaceuticals unless made in the U.S.; 50% on kitchen cabinets/bathroom vanities; 30% on upholstered furniture; 25% on all heavy trucks made abroad.
• U.S. floating a chip plan tying domestic vs. overseas output to tariff exposure; opened a Section 232 probe into robotics, machinery, and medical devices.
• EU preparing 25–50% tariffs on Chinese steel and related products.
• TikTok: executive order signed; U.S. investors to take control; Oracle cited as a key participant; VP said valuation around USD 14bn and Americans to control the algorithm.
• U.S.–China staff-level talks at Treasury were technical (not a negotiation round).
• Japan–U.S. understanding: Japan won’t face harsher U.S. semiconductor/pharma tariffs than other countries.

Geopolitics

• Denmark reported unidentified drones over multiple airports (one briefly closed); later said no drones in Aalborg airspace; incidents also noted near military facilities.
• European officials privately warned Russia they’re prepared to shoot down jets amid airspace concerns; the Dutch PM issued a public warning on further incursions.
• Ukraine: IAEA said a drone was downed and detonated ~800 meters from the South Ukraine nuclear plant perimeter; 22 UAVs observed overnight into morning.
• Middle East: U.S. president teased a “major announcement on Syria”; said “good talks” with Israel’s PM on Gaza and a hostage deal could happen soon; stated he will not allow an Israeli West Bank annexation. He also pressed Turkey to stop buying Russian oil, suggesting Ankara could influence Moscow.

What to Watch Next

• U.S. PCE (Aug) for confirmation of 2.7%/2.9% headline/core.
• Implementation details and potential retaliatory measures tied to the new U.S. tariffs and the EU’s steel plan.
• Any follow-up on NATO airspace activity and IAEA safety updates in Ukraine.
• Signals from Middle East diplomacy, especially any U.S. statement on Syria or progress on a Gaza hostage deal.