September 23rd, New York Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

The Financial Source Podcast

Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics) — 23 Sep 2025

FX & Central Banks

• USD (DXY): Firmer vs. Monday but range-bound; overnight low 97.19, back above Monday’s 97.29 low ahead of U.S. Flash PMIs and Fed Chair remarks.
• EUR: Weaker after soft French PMIs; Germany mixed (services > manufacturing). EUR/USD back on a 1.17 handle.
• GBP: Underperforms after disappointing U.K. Flash PMIs; overnight high 1.3528 faded to a 1.34 handle (session low 1.3488).
• JPY: USD/JPY briefly below the 50-DMA 147.68 and under Monday’s 147.66 low during Japan holiday trade, then steadied; LDP leadership race floats targeted tax measures alongside fiscal-discipline signals.
• AUD/NZD: Softer on weaker Australia PMIs (still expansion) and China sentiment; chatter that New Zealand may name its first female RBNZ Governor as soon as Wednesday.
• CNY/INR: PBoC fix USD/CNY 7.1057 (vs 7.1066 exp). RBI reportedly sold USD via state banks to support the rupee at record lows.
• SEK: Riksbank cut 25bp to 1.75% (one hawkish dissent), guiding the rate to “remain at this level for some time”; two-way EUR/SEK flow around the release.

Commodities

• Crude oil: Recovered from a soft start; intraday ranges WTI USD 61.85–62.53/bbl, Brent USD 66.10–66.75/bbl as markets weigh sanctions/policy rhetoric and lack of fresh supply shocks.
• Gold: New all-time high at USD 3,780/oz after reports China aims to become a custodian of foreign sovereign gold reserves; strength also underpinned by geopolitics and easing expectations.
• Copper/Metals: 3M LME copper slipped back below USD 10,000/t on China weakness; Corfo filed contract changes enabling the Codelco–SQM lithium deal.

Trade & Tariffs

• A major U.S. bank chief said tariffs could be modestly inflationary, with uncertain duration.
• Senior U.S. lawmaker flagged intention to improve U.S.–China communication channels, reinforcing stabilization efforts despite strategic competition.

Geopolitics

• Scandinavia airspace: Oslo closed overnight on drone sightings (reopened); Copenhagen briefly shut then resumed. Sweden reiterated the right to defend its airspace “with force if necessary.”
• Arms control: Kremlin said time is short on the U.S.–Russia nuclear treaty and expiry would be risky for international security.
• Iran/Middle East: EU & E3 meet Iran’s FM 10:00 ET / 15:00 BST at UNGA; Iran’s FM also meeting IAEA chief. U.S. to present principles to Arab leaders for ending the Gaza war, including a multinational deployment to enable Israeli withdrawal and a funded transition.
• Maritime security: UKMTO reported an incident 120 nm east of Aden; crew and vessel safe.
• Indo-Pacific: U.S.–South Korea–Japan foreign ministers jointly opposed unlawful maritime claims in the South China Sea, highlighting trade-lane and shipping risk awareness.

Today’s Market-Relevant Times

• UNGA: U.S. President 09:50 ET / 14:50 BST.
• Central banks: Fed Chair Powell (scheduled remarks later today), plus Bostic, Bowman; ECB’s Cipollone; BoC’s Macklem; BoE’s Pill.
• Data: U.S. Flash PMIs (Sep); US Richmond Fed Index.