September 23rd, London Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

The Financial Source Podcast

Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics) — 23 Sep 2025

FX & Central Banks

• USD: DXY in a tight 97.198–97.374 band ahead of Eurozone/U.K./U.S. Flash PMIs and heavy Fed speak.
• EUR: EUR/USD hovered around 1.1800; resistance flagged at last Thursday’s 1.1848 peak.
• GBP: Narrow range into U.K. PMIs; BoE’s Huw Pill to speak later today (text to be published).
• JPY: USD/JPY slipped under the 50-DMA 147.68 and below yesterday’s 147.66 low in holiday-thinned trade (Japan closed for Autumnal Equinox).
• AUD/NZD: Antipodeans modestly softer alongside China weakness; Australia’s Flash PMIs deteriorated but stayed in expansion; chatter that New Zealand could name its first female RBNZ Governor as soon as Wednesday.
• CNY/INR: PBoC fix USD/CNY 7.1057 (vs 7.1066 exp). RBI reportedly sold USD via state-run banks to support the rupee at record lows.

Commodities

• Crude oil: Subdued APAC session; desks cite pressure from recent calls for Europe to cease Russian oil purchases and a wait for UNGA/Iran headlines.
• Gold: Extended to a fresh ATH at USD 3,726/oz; momentum picked up after a breach of the USD 3,750/oz psychological level.
• Copper/Metals: 3M LME copper dipped back below USD 10,000/t before stabilising; China reiterated tighter steel capacity controls and a ban on new capacity. Corfo notified contract changes enabling the Codelco–SQM lithium deal.

Trade & Tariffs

• U.S.–China: White House says the President will sign a TikTok deal later this week; both sides signal intent to improve communications. Senior U.S. lawmaker also emphasized better U.S.–China channels.
• India–U.S.: India’s Foreign Minister met the U.S. Secretary of State in New York; agreement on sustained engagement across priority areas.
• Tariff pulse: Corporate commentary frames tariffs as modestly inflationary with uncertain duration—kept on the radar for goods-price pass-through and policy reaction functions.

Geopolitics

• Scandinavia airspace: Oslo closed airspace overnight on drone sightings (later reopened); Copenhagen briefly closed then resumed. Sweden reiterated the right to defend its airspace “with force if necessary.”
• Strategic arms: White House says the President is aware of Russia’s New START offer.
• Middle East/Iran: EU & E3 meet Iran’s FM today 10:00 ET / 15:00 BST at UNGA; Iran’s FM also meeting IAEA chief. The U.S. plans to present principles to Arab leaders for ending the Gaza war, including a multinational deployment to facilitate Israeli withdrawal and a funded transition.
• Indo-Pacific: U.S.–South Korea–Japan FMs jointly opposed unlawful maritime claims in the South China Sea.

Today’s Market-Relevant Times

• UNGA: U.S. President 09:50 ET / 14:50 BST; multiple bilats with EU, Ukraine, Argentina; multilateral with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Turkey, Pakistan, Egypt, UAE, Jordan.
• Europe/U.K./U.S.: Flash PMIs (Sep) throughout the session.
• Central banks: Fed Chair Powell plus Bostic, Bowman; ECB’s Cipollone; BoC’s Macklem; BoE’s Pill.