September 18th, London Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

The Financial Source Podcast

Show Notes – Market & News Briefing (18 Sept 2025)

Theme: Post-Fed digestion, dollar steadies, gold consolidates, trade negotiations signal selective thaw, geopolitical talks intensify.

FX & Central Banks

• Fed: Cut rates 25bps to 4.00–4.25%, framed as a “risk-management” move. Dot plot shows two additional cuts in 2025 for nine officials, but six see no further easing. Powell emphasized no rush to neutral and a meeting-by-meeting approach.
• Market Reaction: DXY sold off initially but rebounded during Powell’s press conference; December cut still fully priced.
• Today’s Focus: BoE, Norges Bank, SARB decisions and US jobless claims could recalibrate policy divergence trades.

Commodities

• Gold: Briefly spiked on dovish statement, but faded as Powell pushed back on aggressive easing bets. Now consolidating just off highs.
• Oil: Choppy session leaves crude subdued; headlines on Russian energy infrastructure keep a risk premium under prices.
• Copper: Sideways trade as markets weigh softer macro data against supply themes.

Trade & Tariffs

• Beijing reportedly dropped Google antitrust probe during trade talks, signaling goodwill.
• US lawmakers remain concerned about the structure of the TikTok deal, adding political risk to finalization.
• Brazilian President Lula called US tariffs “eminently political” and warned of higher prices for US consumers, while signing tax exemptions for data-center equipment.
• US administration reportedly considering using tariff revenue to fund farmer support programs, linking trade and fiscal policy.

Geopolitics

• Middle East: Israeli and US envoys in London exploring comprehensive hostage-release and ceasefire deal; Qatar also engaged. Syrian president said security talks with Israel could yield results within days, though normalization is not yet on the table.
• Russia–Ukraine: Zelensky reported continued Russian strikes on energy and rail assets. EU expected to intensify sanctions discussions.
• Europe: UK–EU defence fund talks stalled over cost-sharing, delaying potential UK participation.

Key Watchpoints

• FX response to Fed outcome as markets transition to BoE, Norges Bank, SARB.
• Gold tone into US data and European CB speakers (Lagarde, Nagel, Schnabel).
• Any breakthrough in London talks on Gaza or new EU sanctions language on Russia.
• Developments in US–China trade talks and progress toward Trump’s potential Beijing visit.