September 17th, New York Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

The Financial Source Podcast

Show Notes – Market & News Briefing (17 Sept 2025)

Theme: Dollar steadies ahead of FOMC; gold softens from record highs; crude pressured by China tech restrictions; TikTok deadline extended; geopolitical risk stays elevated.

FX & Central Banks

• USD slightly firmer as traders position for FOMC decision (25bps cut expected, dot plot & Powell presser key).
• EUR/USD retreats from multi-year highs after EZ HICP revised to 2.0% Y/Y.
• JPY strengthens for a third session after smaller-than-expected Japanese trade deficit.
• GBP steady after August CPI holds at 3.8%, core eases to 3.6%; BoE seen holding rates this week.
• CAD slightly weaker ahead of BoC decision (92% chance of 25bps cut priced).
• PBoC sets USD/CNY midpoint stronger at 7.1013.

Commodities

• Crude lower, WTI ~$63, Brent ~$67 after China tells tech giants to stop buying NVIDIA’s RTX Pro 6000D chips, dampening risk sentiment.
• Gold consolidates near $3,680/oz after Tuesday’s ATH of $3,703; silver down ~1%.
• Copper slips back below $10k/t; base metals broadly weaker.
• Deutsche Bank raises 2025 gold forecast to $4,000/oz and silver to $45/oz.
• China August data: iron ore +8.8% Y/Y, refined copper +14.8% Y/Y, zinc +22.8% Y/Y.

Trade & Tariffs

• TikTok enforcement deadline extended to Dec 16; deal would create a US entity with ByteDance retaining 20% stake.
• US–China reportedly finalizing details of Trump’s Beijing state visit with bulk US goods purchases part of deliverables.
• EU discussions on 19th Russia sanctions package expected Friday, may include blacklisting Chinese firms.
• USTR Greer to meet South African Trade Minister Tau Thursday.

Geopolitics

• Russia–Ukraine: IAEA reports shelling near Zaporizhia NPP, no damage; EU plans new sanctions; Russia says talks with US ongoing, ready to deepen energy cooperation.
• Middle East: Japan will not recognize Palestinian state at UNGA; Palestinian sources signal willingness to discuss ceasefire under new framework.
• Asia: Hong Kong CE John Lee reaffirms 2–3% growth target, pledges more housing and development land, launches AI task force, aims to attract SE Asia listings and bank HQs.
• Tech policy: China advances domestic chipmaking push with SMIC testing locally produced machinery.

Key Watchpoints

• FOMC rate decision, Powell presser – major driver for USD, gold, and global risk.
• Bank of Canada decision (expected 25bps cut).
• Friday EU ambassador meeting on sanctions package.
• Trump–Xi state visit announcement timeline and TikTok approval steps.