September 16th, London Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

The Financial Source Podcast

Show Notes – Market & News Briefing (16 Sept 2025)

Theme: USD softer into FOMC; crude and gold supported; US–China trade talks continue; Middle East and Eastern Europe remain flashpoints.

FX & Central Banks

• USD extends yesterday’s downside; DXY under pressure ahead of US Retail Sales and start of FOMC two-day meeting.
• Fed Gov. Cook confirmed to attend FOMC after appeals court ruling; Senate narrowly confirms nominee Miran (48–47).
• EUR holds mild gains as ECB officials say rates are “in a good place.”
• GBP steady near 1.36 with focus on UK jobs data and Trump’s UK visit.
• USD/JPY trades lower after US tariffs on Japan were cut; yen benefits.
• AUD/NZD rangebound; RBA notes inflation near target and risks balanced.
• PBoC sets USD/CNY midpoint at 7.1027 vs 7.1159 expected, another sign of currency support.

Commodities

• Crude: Extends gains as Ukrainian strikes hit Russian oil facilities; supply disruption fears support prices.
• Policy: California passes bill allowing thousands of new oil wells annually.
• Gold: Pauses after record high; market focused on FOMC outcome.
• Copper: Slight pullback after Monday’s rally, still tracking global risk tone.

Trade & Tariffs

• Trump undecided on TikTok stake, will speak with Xi this week on a “significant agreement.”
• US opens inclusion window for additional steel and aluminium products under Section 232 tariffs.
• US not expected to reduce tariffs on Scotch whisky ahead of Trump’s UK visit.

Geopolitics

• Middle East:
  • Gulf leaders call urgent defence council meeting in Doha after Israeli strike on Qatar; draft communiqué calls for reviewing ties with Israel.
  • Trump warns Hamas against using hostages as human shields; urges immediate release.
  • US, Canada, France, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar, UK leaders coordinate response via phone call.
  • US Secretary of State Rubio heads to Qatar seeking to salvage Gaza talks.
• Russia–Ukraine / Europe:
  • UK RAF Typhoons to fly air defence missions over Poland under NATO’s eastern sentry mission.
  • Poland neutralizes drone over government buildings, detains two Belarusians; boosts cyber budget to EUR 1bn after Russian sabotage attempts.
  • Japan pledges to coordinate with G7 on measures to pressure Russia.
• Americas:
  • US military conducts second strike against narcoterrorists in SOUTHCOM region.
  • Venezuelan President Maduro calls recent US actions “aggression.”
  • US reportedly looking to boost its strategic uranium stockpile.

Key Watchpoints Ahead

• UK jobs report, German ZEW survey, US retail sales and industrial production, Canadian CPI.
• Outcome of Trump–Xi discussion on TikTok and trade framework.
• FOMC policy decision and press conference tomorrow — main catalyst for FX and gold.