September 15th, New York Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

The Financial Source Podcast

Show Notes – Market & News Briefing (15 Sept 2025)

Theme: FX steady into a central-bank-heavy week; crude bid on Russia sanction talk; US–China trade/tech tensions intensify; multiple flashpoints on the geopolitical tape.

FX & Policy

• USD steady ahead of FOMC mid-week; ~25bp cut widely expected; tone/dots key for FX path.
• ECB officials (Kocher, Nagel) signal cuts are done or nearly done; euro underpinned at the edges.
• BOE eyed for a hold; UK watching QT guidance and energy-VAT relief talk.
• USD/JPY softer in thin Tokyo trade; LDP leadership race adds political layer.
• PBoC sets stronger-than-expected USD/CNY fix (7.1056 vs 7.1213) to stabilize CNY.
• South Korea discussing US cooperation to limit FX spillovers; swap framework chatter persists.
• Canada flags a “substantial” deficit linked in part to tariff impacts; launches CAD 13bn housing agency.

Commodities

• Crude oil: Firmer on softer USD and US readiness to toughen Russia sanctions contingent on allied alignment and curbs on Russian oil purchases.
• Upstream/supply: Iraq inks joint operations pact with TotalEnergies & QatarEnergy LNG; Egypt signs >USD 121mn in new oil & gas exploration deals; Ecuador to remove diesel subsidy and redirect funds to social programs.
• Metals: Gold choppy ahead of central banks; base metals capped by weak China data; copper holds above USD 10k/t.
• Other: France power sector faces mid-week strike notice; Indonesia aims to lift stake in Freeport Indonesia; Thailand mulls tax on gold trades to cool THB strength.

Tariffs & Trade

• US–China talks in Madrid: mixed signals—technical progress claimed, but FT notes limited headway on tariffs/fentanyl; odds of a Beijing summit fade, APEC South Korea mooted for a lower-profile leaders’ meet.
• TikTok remains a lever: potential operating extension as 17 Sept deadline looms; US stresses national-security priority.
• China launches antidumping probe on US analogue chips and an anti-discrimination investigation into US IC measures.
• US adds 32 entities to the restricted list (23 China; others in India, Iran, Turkey, UAE).
• India–EU schedule next trade round for 6–10 Oct (Brussels).

Geopolitics

• Russia–Ukraine: Kremlin says NATO is “de facto” involved; G7 explores using immobilised Russian assets and further sanctions/tariffs; Ukraine reports thwarting Sumy offensive and a strike on Russia’s Kirishi refinery; Poland & Romania scramble jets over drone threats/incursion.
• Middle East: Israeli strike in Qatar heightens tensions; Hamas suspends prisoner-swap talks; Qatar pledges to continue mediation; Iran warns EU snapback could jeopardize nuclear monitoring.
• Indo-Pacific: US–Japan–Philippines complete South China Sea drills; China runs “routine” patrols and warns Manila against “provocations.”
• Americas/Caribbean: Venezuela protests US Navy boarding of a tuna vessel in its EEZ.

Europe – Ratings & Policy Signals

• Fitch downgrades France to A+ (Stable); Portugal and Spain upgraded by major agencies.
• Germany’s NRW exit polls: CDU leads; AfD support triples—political tilt to watch for EU policy risk.
• UK announces >GBP 1.25bn US FDI and >GBP 1.1bn maritime investment; considering energy VAT relief.

China Macro

• August miss across activity: industrial output 5.2% y/y (vs 5.7% exp), retail sales 3.4% (vs 3.9% exp), FAI 0.5% YTD; jobless 5.3%; house prices still falling.
• Beijing pledges support for demand, jobs, and property; MIIT targets ~3% vehicle-sales growth; HK in talks with Chinese EV makers on local manufacturing.

What to Watch Next

• FOMC messaging and dots for USD direction; BOE tone/QT for GBP; US–China Madrid talks headlines (TikTok, chips); crude’s response to sanction rhetoric; China policy follow-through for metals and Asia FX.