October 3rd, London Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

The Financial Source Podcast

Show Notes — Market & News Briefing (FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics)

Today’s focus: Data blackout from the U.S. government shutdown shifts attention to ISM Services and central-bank remarks; OPEC+ weekend meeting in view; fresh geopolitical headlines around Ukraine and European airspace.

FX

• USD: Sideways inside yesterday’s range as traders lean on surveys in lieu of the missing jobs report.
• JPY: Weaker after BoJ Governor Ueda reaffirmed an accommodative stance to support growth; USD/JPY firmer on the day.
• EUR/GBP: Euro steady above 1.17 with a light euro-area docket; sterling holds around mid-1.34s ahead of final PMIs and BoE commentary.
• AUD/NZD: Quiet with China still shut for Golden Week; Aussie PMIs benign, kiwi awaiting next week’s RBNZ decision.
• Central-bank color: Fed’s Goolsbee urges caution against front-loading cuts during the shutdown; BoC’s Mendes outlines work on improved core-inflation gauges.

Commodities

• Oil: Modestly firmer after Thursday’s slide; markets position for OPEC+ this weekend amid chatter of a faster unwind of supply cuts (talk of a potential November increase in the ~275–400kbpd range). A separate survey pointed to ~330kbpd OPEC output growth in September.
• Gold: Eases off recent highs as traders wait for ISM and Fed speak in the absence of payrolls.
• Copper: Holds near USD 10.5k/t on the LME despite thin liquidity with China offline.

Trade & Tariffs

• U.S. policy ideas: White House considering taxpayer rebates of USD 1,000–2,000 funded by tariff revenue; separate plans in motion for cash support to farmers via existing USDA resources, with additional tariff-linked aid under discussion.
• Shutdown impacts: Normal labor-data releases disrupted, pushing markets to rely more on surveys and policymaker guidance.

Geopolitics

• Ukraine/Russia: U.S. to provide Kyiv with intelligence to support strikes deeper inside Russia; reports suggest Tomahawk missile supply could be constrained by current inventories.
• European airspace: Munich Airport briefly closed overnight after drone sightings before reopening.
• Russia messaging: President Putin criticizes Nordic NATO accessions, says Russia doesn’t intend to attack NATO, underscores ongoing importance of Russian energy and uranium exports, and warns escalation risks would rise with any maritime seizures.

What to watch next

• Data: ISM Services (U.S.) takes center stage given the NFP blackout.
• Speakers: ECB President Lagarde; ECB’s Schnabel; Fed’s Williams and Jefferson; BoE Governor Bailey.
• Energy: OPEC+ weekend meeting and any guidance on the cadence of supply restoration.
• Politics: Duration of the U.S. shutdown and any fiscal headlines that could alter the data calendar or policy tone.