October 2nd, New York Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

The Financial Source Podcast

Show Notes — FX, Commodities & Geopolitics Briefing (Oct 2, 2025)

Episode summary:
The U.S. government shutdown narrows the data signal and weighs on sentiment. The dollar eases for a fifth straight session as the yen firms on cautious-hawkish BOJ guidance. Gold hovers near record highs, oil softens, and copper stays supported. In trade policy, Brussels moves toward a steep steel-tariff hike while Washington’s Asia travel planning stalls amid the shutdown. On geopolitics, the U.S. will provide Ukraine with intelligence for long-range strikes; the G7 leans further on trade measures to curb Russian revenue.

Top takeaways

• FX: DXY lower again; JPY leads after BOJ’s Uchida said rate hikes will continue if the outlook holds. EUR steady above 1.17; GBP modestly firmer; AUD/NZD inch higher with China still on holiday.
• Commodities: Oil gives back early gains on light newsflow; gold pauses just below fresh ATHs; copper extends above ~$10.5k/t; a major bank reiterates higher multi-year gold targets.
• Trade & tariffs: EU drafts a hike to ~50% steel import tariffs; U.S. shutdown slows planning for the President’s late-October Asia visit; Japan–U.S. date taking shape; South Korea–U.S. signal broader security alignment.
• Geopolitics: U.S. intel support to Ukraine for strikes inside Russia; G7 underscores tariffs and export bans to squeeze Russian revenues.
• Macro backdrop: S&P estimates the shutdown could shave 0.1–0.2pp off U.S. GDP per week, complicating near-term policy read-throughs.

FX

• Dollar softer for a fifth session as the shutdown trims the data calendar and raises headline sensitivity.
• USD/JPY dipped toward the mid-146s before rebounding around 147 after BOJ Uchida said the Bank would keep hiking if its outlook is realized.
• EUR/USD holds a tight 1.171–1.178 range on a light Eurozone docket; GBP/USD recovers above 1.35 with UK price-expectation surveys nudging higher.
• AUD/NZD firmer, though ranges remain contained with China’s on-shore markets closed for Golden Week.

Commodities

• Crude oil slips back from early strength despite scant fresh catalysts; earlier geopolitical pop faded.
• Gold consolidates just below new records as policy uncertainty and a softer dollar sustain haven demand.
• Base metals: Copper extends gains above ~$10.5k/t despite China’s holiday lull; Kazakhstan signals crude output near 90mt in 2026.
• A major bank reiterates gold as highest-conviction long, flagging upside risks to 2026 targets.

Trade & Tariffs

• EU prepares to raise steel import tariffs to ~50% in a draft aligned with North American levels.
• Washington’s Asia travel logistics slow amid the shutdown; Japan–U.S. tentatively set Oct 27; Brazil–U.S. working toward a leaders’ meeting.
• South Korea–U.S. note broad security agreement; a BoK official says the fuller impact of U.S. tariffs on exports likely shows up next year.

Geopolitics

• Ukraine: The U.S. will provide intelligence for strikes deep inside Russia and is urging NATO allies to offer similar support.
• G7 reaffirms the use of tariffs and export/import bans to limit Russian revenue streams.

What to watch next

• U.S. shutdown timeline and any workaround data proxies (e.g., private labor indicators).
• BOJ signaling into the October meeting and yen sensitivity to rate-differential headlines.
• EU steel tariff decision path and any reciprocal trade responses.
• Gold momentum near ATHs and copper resilience without China’s on-shore participation.