October 14th, London Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

The Financial Source Podcast

Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (14 Oct 2025)

Overview: A current market and news briefing focused on FX, commodities, trade, and geopolitics. Risk tone wobbles after Beijing signals fresh countermeasures while Washington’s weekend rhetoric softens. Gold holds record highs; oil steadies.

FX:

• USD eases slightly; EUR edges higher, GBP range-bound.
• JPY firms on softer risk appetite and renewed official focus on orderly moves.
• AUD/NZD lag as RBA minutes keep a cautious, data-dependent stance; MAS leaves SGD policy unchanged.
• Fed’s Paulson backs a gradual, data-led easing path through this year and next.

Commodities:

• Gold extends record run above $4,150/oz on lingering headline risk.
• Crude steady; OPEC keeps 2025–26 demand growth unchanged; Aramco reiterates demand resilience and states 12mb/d max capacity can be sustained for up to a year.
• Base metals cool from Monday’s pop; China demand/supply headlines remain the swing factor.

Trade & Tariffs:

• China’s MOFCOM says the U.S. can’t seek talks while threatening new curbs; announces countermeasures against five U.S.-linked firms.
• Beijing implements special port fees on U.S. vessels; launches a probe into the impact of U.S. Section 301 tariffs on shipping.
• China reiterates rare-earth curbs are license-based (not a blanket ban), keeping strategic-materials risk elevated.

Geopolitics:

• Gaza framework moves into implementation phases; sequencing and enforcement remain the near-term swing risks for energy sentiment.
• France to present a budget targeting a deficit cut to 4.7% by end-2026—fiscal backdrop in focus for the euro.
• Ukraine reports further strikes on energy assets; Kyiv to press allies on air defense and long-range munitions.

What to watch:

• UK labor data; Germany ZEW.
• IEA Oil Market Report.
• Fed/ECB/BoE speakers and U.S. discount-rate minutes.
• Any incremental U.S.–China steps on export controls, port fees, or firm-specific measures.