October 13th, New York Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

The Financial Source Podcast

Show notes — FX, commodities, trade & geopolitics

FX

• USD steadies after Friday’s wobble; support from softer EUR and ebbing haven demand.
• JPY weaker after holiday-gap swings; Japan’s MoF reiterates vigilance against disorderly FX moves.
• EUR constrained as ECB’s Vujčić signals comfort with current stance; French politics still a background drag.
• GBP slightly softer amid UK budget/tax-raid chatter.
• AUD/NZD firmer on risk rebound and stronger base metals; BLS preparing to release Sep CPI despite shutdown—key for near-term USD path.

Commodities

• Oil rebounds as weekend rhetoric softens; market awaits OPEC MOMR for fresh balance cues.
• Iraq’s SOMO sets Nov Basrah OSPs: small Asia premia vs Oman/Dubai; discounts vs Brent to Europe.
• Gold near record highs after Asian session pop; silver supported by shrinking freely available stocks in London.
• Copper firmer on improved risk tone and China trade resilience.

Tariffs & trade

• US President tempers tone after 100%-tariff threat; says US wants to “help” China, but threat not withdrawn.
• China defends Oct 9 rare-earth export controls as license-based, not a blanket ban; imposes special port fees on US-related vessels in response to US measures.
• USTR: outreach to Beijing after export-control move; reports “progress” with Cambodia.
• Canada drafting industrial strategy to diversify markets and favor domestic procurement amid US tariffs.
• Switzerland–China to accelerate FTA upgrade talks; Indian delegation in US this week, signaling more US energy buys.

Geopolitics

• Gaza: Cairo summit today to formalize plan; Israel says framework approved and hostage releases to begin; Hamas says deal includes withdrawal and prisoner swap.
• Iran rules out joining Abraham Accords; says message exchanges with US continue.
• Ukraine: strikes hit energy infrastructure; Kyiv claims drone strike on Russia’s Bashneft refinery; US weighing options, Zelensky pushes air-defense support.
• Pakistan–Afghanistan border clashes prompt mediation;
• South China Sea: Philippines–China vessel collision dispute near Sandy Cay;
• DPRK deepens coordination with Russia; pledges tighter ties with China.

Policy/other market-relevant headlines

• BLS preparing Sep CPI release despite shutdown (timing TBC).
• US Fed extends Fedwire/NSS operating days to Sundays/holidays (payments plumbing).
• Netherlands tightens oversight of Nexperia on governance concerns.
• US FCC: e-commerce platforms removing prohibited Chinese electronics.