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المحتوى المقدم من LessWrong. يتم تحميل جميع محتويات البودكاست بما في ذلك الحلقات والرسومات وأوصاف البودكاست وتقديمها مباشرة بواسطة LessWrong أو شريك منصة البودكاست الخاص بهم. إذا كنت تعتقد أن شخصًا ما يستخدم عملك المحمي بحقوق الطبع والنشر دون إذنك، فيمكنك اتباع العملية الموضحة هنا https://ar.player.fm/legal.
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“The Most Common Bad Argument In These Parts” by J Bostock
MP3•منزل الحلقة
Manage episode 513157255 series 3364760
المحتوى المقدم من LessWrong. يتم تحميل جميع محتويات البودكاست بما في ذلك الحلقات والرسومات وأوصاف البودكاست وتقديمها مباشرة بواسطة LessWrong أو شريك منصة البودكاست الخاص بهم. إذا كنت تعتقد أن شخصًا ما يستخدم عملك المحمي بحقوق الطبع والنشر دون إذنك، فيمكنك اتباع العملية الموضحة هنا https://ar.player.fm/legal.
I've noticed an antipattern. It's definitely on the dark pareto-frontier of "bad argument" and "I see it all the time amongst smart people". I'm confident it's the worst, common argument I see amongst rationalists and EAs. I don't normally crosspost to the EA forum, but I'm doing it now. I call it Exhaustive Free Association.
Exhaustive Free Association is a step in a chain of reasoning where the logic goes "It's not A, it's not B, it's not C, it's not D, and I can't think of any more things it could be!"[1] Once you spot it, you notice it all the damn time.
Since I've most commonly encountered this amongst rat/EA types, I'm going to have to talk about people in our community as examples of this.
Examples
Here's a few examples. These are mostly for illustrative purposes, and my case does not rely on me having found [...]
---
Outline:
(00:55) Examples
(01:08) Security Mindset
(01:25) Superforecasters and AI Doom
(02:14) With Apologies to Rethink Priorities
(02:45) The Fatima Sun Miracle
(03:14) Bad Reasoning is Almost Good Reasoning
(05:09) Arguments as Soldiers
(06:29) Conclusion
(07:04) The Counter-Counter Spell
The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.
---
First published:
October 11th, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/arwATwCTscahYwTzD/the-most-common-bad-argument-in-these-parts
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
…
continue reading
Exhaustive Free Association is a step in a chain of reasoning where the logic goes "It's not A, it's not B, it's not C, it's not D, and I can't think of any more things it could be!"[1] Once you spot it, you notice it all the damn time.
Since I've most commonly encountered this amongst rat/EA types, I'm going to have to talk about people in our community as examples of this.
Examples
Here's a few examples. These are mostly for illustrative purposes, and my case does not rely on me having found [...]
---
Outline:
(00:55) Examples
(01:08) Security Mindset
(01:25) Superforecasters and AI Doom
(02:14) With Apologies to Rethink Priorities
(02:45) The Fatima Sun Miracle
(03:14) Bad Reasoning is Almost Good Reasoning
(05:09) Arguments as Soldiers
(06:29) Conclusion
(07:04) The Counter-Counter Spell
The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.
---
First published:
October 11th, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/arwATwCTscahYwTzD/the-most-common-bad-argument-in-these-parts
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
635 حلقات
MP3•منزل الحلقة
Manage episode 513157255 series 3364760
المحتوى المقدم من LessWrong. يتم تحميل جميع محتويات البودكاست بما في ذلك الحلقات والرسومات وأوصاف البودكاست وتقديمها مباشرة بواسطة LessWrong أو شريك منصة البودكاست الخاص بهم. إذا كنت تعتقد أن شخصًا ما يستخدم عملك المحمي بحقوق الطبع والنشر دون إذنك، فيمكنك اتباع العملية الموضحة هنا https://ar.player.fm/legal.
I've noticed an antipattern. It's definitely on the dark pareto-frontier of "bad argument" and "I see it all the time amongst smart people". I'm confident it's the worst, common argument I see amongst rationalists and EAs. I don't normally crosspost to the EA forum, but I'm doing it now. I call it Exhaustive Free Association.
Exhaustive Free Association is a step in a chain of reasoning where the logic goes "It's not A, it's not B, it's not C, it's not D, and I can't think of any more things it could be!"[1] Once you spot it, you notice it all the damn time.
Since I've most commonly encountered this amongst rat/EA types, I'm going to have to talk about people in our community as examples of this.
Examples
Here's a few examples. These are mostly for illustrative purposes, and my case does not rely on me having found [...]
---
Outline:
(00:55) Examples
(01:08) Security Mindset
(01:25) Superforecasters and AI Doom
(02:14) With Apologies to Rethink Priorities
(02:45) The Fatima Sun Miracle
(03:14) Bad Reasoning is Almost Good Reasoning
(05:09) Arguments as Soldiers
(06:29) Conclusion
(07:04) The Counter-Counter Spell
The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.
---
First published:
October 11th, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/arwATwCTscahYwTzD/the-most-common-bad-argument-in-these-parts
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
…
continue reading
Exhaustive Free Association is a step in a chain of reasoning where the logic goes "It's not A, it's not B, it's not C, it's not D, and I can't think of any more things it could be!"[1] Once you spot it, you notice it all the damn time.
Since I've most commonly encountered this amongst rat/EA types, I'm going to have to talk about people in our community as examples of this.
Examples
Here's a few examples. These are mostly for illustrative purposes, and my case does not rely on me having found [...]
---
Outline:
(00:55) Examples
(01:08) Security Mindset
(01:25) Superforecasters and AI Doom
(02:14) With Apologies to Rethink Priorities
(02:45) The Fatima Sun Miracle
(03:14) Bad Reasoning is Almost Good Reasoning
(05:09) Arguments as Soldiers
(06:29) Conclusion
(07:04) The Counter-Counter Spell
The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.
---
First published:
October 11th, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/arwATwCTscahYwTzD/the-most-common-bad-argument-in-these-parts
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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