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Almost There - Nigeria's Dangote Refinery Likely Facing A Long, Slow Ramp-up
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The new 650-Mb/d Dangote refinery in Nigeria instantly became Africa’s largest and the world’s seventh-largest by capacity when it finally began processing crude into diesel and aviation fuels in January after years of delays and cost overruns. Long touted as Nigeria’s ticket to ending refined fuels imports by supplying its own markets — with plent…
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Thinking Out Loud - What Might Be the Timing and Scope of the Ramp Up of Gas into LNG Canada?
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LNG Canada, under construction for nearly six years on Canada’s West Coast, is rapidly approaching the time when first gas will be entering the plant for testing and calibration of equipment, marking an important transformation for the Western Canadian natural gas market. This will kick off what will likely be about a yearlong testing process befor…
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When Worlds Collide - U.S. Gulf Coast Refiners Face Challenges to Accessing Heavier Crude Oil
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The prospect of decreased crude oil supplies from Mexico, the top international supplier to the U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC), is creating uncertainty among heavy crude-focused refineries. Mexico’s state-owned energy company, Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), instructed its trading unit to cancel up to 436 Mb/d of crude exports for April to supposedly focus on…
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Glimpse of the Future - Upcoming W2W Maintenance Will Tighten Permian Oil Takeaway, Wreak Havoc on Prices
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The largest crude oil pipeline exiting the Permian Basin by volume — Wink to Webster (W2W) — is planned to be offline for maintenance for the first 10 days of June. This is inclusive of Enterprise’s Midland-to-ECHO III (ME III), which reflects the company’s 29% undivided joint interest in W2W. Although the outage has not been publicly confirmed, it…
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You Light Up My Life - Long-Duration Energy Storage to Play Critical Role in Renewables Buildout, Grid Reliability
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The intermittent nature of renewable energy is a well-documented thorn in the side of efforts to decarbonize the power grid, especially with more wind and solar generation coming online every year. But while those sources of clean energy are not available all the time, it’s also true that they can sometimes produce more power than transmission line…
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China In Your Hand - Evolving LNG Market Could Mean Major Changes for China's Big Three
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China regained its place as the world’s largest LNG importer in 2023, a title it lost in 2022 due to COVID-related shutdowns. Given that China only started importing LNG in 2006, the country’s demand growth — imports last year totaled 71.3 million metric tons (~9.5 Bcf/d), just under 18% of globally traded demand — can only be described as spectacu…
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Dark Horse - Sentinel Midstream's Texas GulfLink Emerges as Serious Contender in Export Terminal Race
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In the race to build the next deepwater crude oil export terminal in the Gulf of Mexico, Sentinel Midstream’s proposed Texas GulfLink (TGL) is currently in second place in the regulatory race, behind only Enterprise’s Sea Port Oil Terminal (SPOT) — and seems to be emerging as a serious contender. The plan offers some compelling attributes, includin…
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Oceanfront Property - Gauging the Promise of the Newly Announced DeLa Pipeline
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Moss Lake Partners has announced plans to build a massive 42-inch pipeline known as the DeLa Express to take up to 2 Bcf/d of wet gas 690 miles from the Permian across the Texas state line into Louisiana. It’s an audacious plan, and there’s little doubt that a new natural gas pipeline from the Permian to the Gulf Coast is needed to facilitate conti…
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This Must Be the Place - Enbridge Expands Corpus Christi Assets to Bolster Crude Exports
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Enbridge’s recent $200 million deal to buy two marine docks and land in Ingleside, TX, from Flint Hills Resources (FHR) may not be much of a surprise, as expanding its role in U.S. crude exports has been part of Enbridge’s strategy since it bought Moda Midstream’s big marine terminal next door nearly three years ago. The former Moda terminal, now k…
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If You've Got the Money, Honey - Investors Rewarded with Strong Returns Despite Dip in E&P Cash Flows
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As we’ve frequently chronicled, 2022 was a golden year for U.S. exploration and production (E&P) companies and their investors, as soaring commodity prices triggered record cash generation to fund the highest levels of shareholder returns of any American industry. But Camelot didn’t last forever, and the twin impacts of lower hydrocarbon prices and…
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Upside Down - Renewable Diesel Boom Sets Off Aftershocks in Soybean Oil, Used Cooking Oil Markets
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The boom in renewable diesel (RD) production has triggered a race to secure the dozen different bio-feedstocks suitable for refining into diesel fuel. It’s an interesting story that impacts both the oil and agriculture industries, with twists and turns that will take years to play out. In today's RBN blog, we describe the current state of the marke…
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Here I Go Again - Pemex's Dos Bocas Refinery Still Facing the Startup Blues
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One of the most anticipated and potentially impactful refinery startups in North America in years is the Dos Bocas project (officially the Olmeca Refinery), a 340 Mb/d plant under development by Mexico’s state-owned Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) in the southeastern state of Tabasco. The project was seen as the cornerstone of Pemex’s plans to reduce M…
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Texas Hold 'Em - Permian Pipeline Takeaway Constraints Loom As Basin's Oil Output Grows
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Crude oil output in the Permian Basin is now averaging 6.3 MMb/d, up about 400 Mb/d from year-ago levels and 800 Mb/d from April 2022. The gains — and related increases in associated gas — have spurred a new round of concerns about pipeline exit capacity, complicating drillers’ hopes to boost crude production. In today’s RBN blog, we will discuss t…
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Take Me to the Water - New JV's Focus Is Moving Permian Natural Gas to LNG Export Terminals
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The U.S. may be in a monthslong pause in approving new LNG exports but that doesn’t change the fact that U.S. LNG export capacity will nearly double over the next four years, that most of the new liquefaction plants are being built along the Texas coast, and that their primary source of natural gas will be the Permian Basin. That helps to explain w…
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(The EPA) Drives Me Crazy - New U.S. Rule on Tailpipe Emissions Conflicts With Energy Reality
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The Biden administration recently announced a very ambitious — to say the least — rule on tailpipe emissions. But while the rule’s legal and political standing might be a bit uncertain — it’s seen by many as a de facto ban on conventionally fueled cars and trucks and is likely to face several court challenges — doubts also remain about whether it m…
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Unintended Consequences - Plan to Boost E15 Gasoline Will Have Big Impact on Refiners, Retailers, Drivers
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The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has approved a request by governors from eight Corn Belt states to remove a summertime waiver for Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) included in the Clean Air Act (CAA) for E10 gasoline, a 90/10 blend of petroleum-derived gasoline blendstock and ethanol. The motive for the governors’ request was a desire to increase…
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Leader of the Pack - Deepwater Port License in Hand, Enterprise's SPOT at Front of Export Terminal Race
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In the race to build the next deepwater crude oil export terminal along the U.S. Gulf Coast, there’s a lot of competition but one project now has a clear advantage: Enterprise Product Partners’ planned Sea Port Oil Terminal (SPOT), which has made the most progress in moving through the regulatory morass and announced that it had received its deepwa…
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Johnny B. Goode - Capital Discipline Resurrected E&Ps; Could Producers Now Backslide to 'Drill Baby Drill'?
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Growth for growth’s sake. In the early years of the Shale Revolution, that’s what it was all about. Backed by billions of dollars in Wall Street borrowings, E&Ps plowed vast piles of cash into increasing production. It was the era of “Drill baby drill!” And we all know what happened next. Rabid production growth contributed to oversupply and crude …
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Patience - Navigating the Permitting Hurdles in a Race to Build the Next Deepwater Crude Oil Export Project
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The deepwater crude oil export projects under development along the U.S. Gulf Coast offer a number of potential benefits to shippers and customers alike. These include the ability to fully load a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) and the economies of scale that come with that, the elimination of reverse lightering and the corresponding decrease in em…
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Sisters Are Doin' It For Themselves - Short-Side Portfolio Players Seek to Turn the Tables on LNG Trade
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LNG commerce is composed of two primary models. One is the traditional point-to-point model, on which the industry was founded and still accounts for more than 60% of LNG trade. More recently, the portfolio model has emerged, pursued by upstream oil and gas majors, that would allow them to monetize their gas reserves by converting them to LNG and s…
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Good Enough - Most E&P 2023 Profits Dip To Solid Levels After Record 2022 But Gas Producers Struggle
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U.S. E&Ps have just concluded discussions of their Q4 and full-year 2023 results and, as usual, the view of analysts and investors can be summed up by one question: What have you done for me lately? But while the collective results of the 44 producers we track were off from the previous quarter and a record 2022, there’s a lot to be said for how we…
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Bringing Waxy Back - Uinta Basin Waxy Crude on a Roll as Gas Takeaway Constraints Are Dealt With
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The Uinta Basin in northeastern Utah, which may be the quirkiest production area in the Lower 48, is firing on all cylinders. Production of the basin’s unique waxy crude is at an all-time high, the natural gas takeaway constraints that had threatened to limit growth are being resolved, and demand for waxy crude is on the rise. In today’s RBN blog, …
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The Weight - Explaining the Bump in Heavier Crude Oil Production in Texas, New Mexico and North Dakota
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The Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently raised a few eyebrows across the energy industry with a report that producers in three key shale states — including Texas, the nation’s #1 oil producer — seem to be extracting larger amounts of “heavier” crude oil. Of course, the oil is only heavier relative to the light and superlight grades tha…
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Wasting Away Again in Butane Blendingville - Making the Most of Butane in the Gasoline Pool
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Normal butane is an important gasoline blendstock, with a great combination of high octane and relatively low cost. It also has a high Reid vapor pressure, or RVP, which is a good news/bad news kind of thing because while regulators allow higher-RVP gasoline — that is, gasoline with higher levels of butane — to be sold during the colder months of t…
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Don't Blame Me - What's Causing Negative Gas Prices in the Permian and How Long Will They Last?
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Natural gas prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas have been below zero for going on two weeks — that’s outright negative cash prices, not basis, which means Permian producers are literally paying to have their gas taken away. Ample supply along with weak demand have prompted an early start to the injection season this year and are putting downward p…
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Fear and Loathing, Encore Edition - With Brutally Bearish Fundamentals, How Low Could Natural Gas Prices Go?
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It’s been a devastating few weeks for the natural gas market. Sure, Shale Era abundance was supposed to keep gas prices from skyrocketing — and it generally has. But seriously? Henry Hub gas sinking below $2/MMBtu — and staying there, in the depths of the winter heating season? Prices have stabilized a little as a few E&Ps announced cutbacks in cap…
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I Don't Care if the Sun Don't Shine - From Texas to the Northeast, Power Grids Prep for Total Eclipse
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The uncertainties around solar power are well understood — when the sun doesn’t shine as much as expected, power grids that rely heavily on that generation must turn elsewhere to meet consumer demand. And while a shortfall in solar generation can be challenging to navigate, the difference between actual and forecast levels is typically only a few p…
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Are You Gonna Go My Way - U.S. LNG Projects Face Steep Challenges in Replacing Coal Abroad
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Many have argued that U.S.-sourced LNG can be instrumental in combating climate change by helping countries around the world replace coal-fired generation with natural gas-fired power. While this argument carries a lot of force in the eyes of many politicians and LNG marketers, the questions of exactly how — and to what extent — LNG can replace coa…
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Walls - U.S. Sees 45V Tax Credit Clearing the Way for Clean Hydrogen, But Barriers Remain
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The Biden administration has placed some big bets on clean hydrogen, seeing it as a replacement fuel for some hard-to-abate industries and putting it at the heart of its long-term decarbonization efforts. But while clean hydrogen has significant long-term potential — backed by major subsidies, including the 45V production tax credit (PTC) — figurin…
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For Whom the Pipeline Tolls - Approval of Enbridge Mainline Tolls Locks In Years of Shipping Cost Certainty
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The Enbridge Mainline, by far the largest transportation network for growing Western Canadian crude oil supplies to the U.S. Midwest, Gulf Coast and Eastern Canada, recently received regulatory approval for the tolls that it charges shippers for using the massive pipeline system. As we discuss in today’s RBN blog, the Canada Energy Regulator’s (CER…
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Hello Darkness, My Old Friend - Is the Global LNG Market Headed for Oversupply and Lower Prices?
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Listen to Paul Simon’s “The Sound of Silence” and you hear the words of a teenager coming to terms with the disconnect between the world his parents promised and the real world yet to come. In the LNG market, there’s a similar generational divide. A business built on long-term contracts, rigid trade patterns, and the promise of substantial growth p…
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Traveler - Supply/Demand Trends That Spurred a Gulf Coast Ethylene-to-Alkylate Project Hold Strong
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There’s always a risk when you take a new approach to doing or making something that your expectations won’t pan out — that something you hadn’t figured on happens and messes things up. But oh, the satisfaction that comes when the stars align exactly as you foresaw. The folks who developed Project Traveler, a recently completed Houston-area plant t…
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Gulf Coast Time - Making the Case for Deepwater Crude Export Projects
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With many years gone by and many millions of dollars spent, the deepwater crude oil export projects under development along the U.S. Gulf Coast are finally getting close to receiving their regulatory green light. These projects have sparked commercial and wider market interest because of the many benefits they may provide — including the ability to…
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Show Me the Way - Methane Intensity and the Sourcing of Natural Gas for LNG Exports
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There’s already so much involved in developing new LNG export capacity: lining up offtakers, securing federal approvals, sourcing natural gas, developing pipelines ... the list goes on. Now, with the increased emphasis on minimizing emissions of methane, the folks involved in LNG exports are also wary of the methane intensity (MI) of their feedgas,…
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Come Dancing - Which Permian Gas Pipeline Projects Have the Best Chance to Cut Down the Nets?
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It’s that time of year, folks! March Madness is upon us — time to reboot the office pool and fill out your brackets. And not just for the NCAA Tournament field announced Sunday night, but for the natural gas pipeline projects out of the Permian you think will make it to the Elite Eight or even the Final Four. Matterhorn Express is like the UConn of…
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Electric Avenue - In Efforts to Bolster Power Grid, ERCOT Seeks to Balance Reliability, System Cost
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In the three years since the deadly electrical outages caused by Winter Storm Uri, the Texas Legislature, the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT), and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) have been working overtime to design and implement changes to ensure a more reliable Texas power grid. But it hasn’t been easy. The state’s ene…
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Call and Answer - Trading Evolves as U.S. Crude Exports Secure Place in Global Marketplace
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As U.S. crude oil expands its foothold across the world, the markets that trade it have undergone some fundamental changes. Since the onset of the pandemic almost four years ago, these changes have included the shortening of the loading-date range for crude oil cargoes marketed along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Price reporting agencies (PRAs) like Argus h…
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Dance With the One That Brought You - E&Ps Trim 2024 Capex, Stalling Growth to Prioritize Free Cash Flow and Returns
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When legendary University of Texas football coach Darrell Royal was asked how he approached important games, he frequently said, “You dance with the one who brung ya,” which meant sticking with the strategy that produced previous success. After struggling through a period of extreme price volatility in 2014-20, U.S. E&Ps finally locked onto a game …
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Tijuana Taxi - New Gas Pipelines From the Permian to Northwest Mexico Are Needed to Meet Demand
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Mexico’s state-owned Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE) and private-sector developers of LNG export terminals have been aggressively advancing new natural gas-consuming projects in Northwest Mexico. But while plans for a number of new pipelines to help bring in gas from the Permian are on the drawing board, it remains to be seen if they can be …
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The Long Way Around - For U.S. Exporters, Avoiding Panama, Suez Canals Comes at a Cost
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Two maritime passages long regarded as essential shortcuts in the complex world of commodity shipping have become a lot more challenging to navigate. Transiting the Red Sea has turned potentially deadly because of geopolitical tensions, while severe drought has critically reduced operations at the Panama Canal. Combined, these issues are being felt…
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A Change Would Do You Good - Industry Groups Pitch Plenty of Alterations to Hydrogen’s 'Three Pillars'
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When the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was passed into law in August 2022, it earned near-unanimous acclaim from longtime supporters of renewable energy and decarbonization efforts. Industry types also approved of the bill’s focus on incentives to fuel new developments. One of its most ambitious elements was creation of the 45V production tax credi…
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Ordinary Average Guy - EIA's Latest Approach to Weather Modeling Promises Forecast Improvements
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The Energy Information Administration (EIA) recently changed the weather forecast methodology for one of its most important energy models — the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) — and while we talk about the effects of weather on energy markets fairly often (571 times in the past 12 years, or about once a week, but who’s counting?), we rarely take a…
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California Sunset - Scale, Shifting Focus to CCS Drive California Resources/Aera Energy M&A
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The drivers behind most upstream M&A the past couple of years have been consistent — namely, to gain scale (mostly in the Permian) and the economies that come with it, boost free cash flow (and share more with shareholders), and replenish reserves to keep the good times rollin' into the 2030s. There are hints of all that in California Resources’ re…
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Just in Time - Chesapeake Counters Gas-Price Nadir With Output Slash, Innovative Inventory Build
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Faced with sustained sub-$2/MMBtu natural gas prices and dim prospects for significant gas-demand growth until sometime next year, a number of major gas-focused E&Ps have been tapping the brakes on production and trimming their planned 2024 capex. But one company — Chesapeake Energy, slated to become the U.S.’s largest gas producer thanks to a rece…
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Fear and Loathing - With Brutally Bearish Fundamentals, How Low Could Natural Gas Prices Go?
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It’s been a devastating few weeks for the natural gas market. Sure, Shale Era abundance was supposed to keep gas prices from skyrocketing — and it generally has. But seriously? Henry Hub gas sinking below $2/MMBtu — and staying there, in the depths of the winter heating season? Prices have stabilized a little in recent days as a few E&Ps announced …
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Even Flow - How Operational Flow Orders Help the Natural Gas Market Stay in Balance
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Natural gas prices remain at near-record lows, but with so much production being driven by still-favorable crude oil economics there’s a distinct possibility — especially given the warm winter we’re in — that gas inventories may test storage capacity this year, perhaps as early as Labor Day. Of course, there are many market factors that might preve…
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Reelin' in the Years - The Next Decade of the Natural Gas Market Balance
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Observers of the natural gas market over the past 20 years know that the main story has been one of enormous growth. The Shale Revolution gave new life to the U.S. natural gas sector, leading to the record production levels we are seeing in early 2024. The economy has found many uses for this new gas: increased power generation, more pipeline expor…
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He Is Not Yet Dead - Louisiana Court Ruling Gives Formosa Petchem's Sunshine Project a Ray of Hope
10:35
10:35
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10:35
It’s been nine years since Formosa Petrochemical filed its first permit applications for a proposed $9.4 billion petrochemical complex in Louisiana and, while the greenfield project has faced legal setbacks, it recently posted an important win and may — emphasis on may — eventually make it across the finish line. The Sunshine Project would be massi…
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Off To The Races - Sentinel-ExxonMobil JV Could Mean Big Things for Louisiana's Raceland Hub
11:05
11:05
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The Raceland crude oil hub is far from Louisiana’s largest but might be positioned to earn a little more of the spotlight after Sentinel Midstream and ExxonMobil Pipeline formed a joint venture in December to enhance business for a few crude oil pipelines connecting Louisiana hubs, including Raceland. In today’s RBN blog, we examine the infrastruct…
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Kick Out the Jams - The U.S. NGL Production, Fractionation and Export Juggernaut Rolls On
16:32
16:32
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16:32
Way back in 2018-19, U.S. NGL production was rising fast, new ethane-only steam crackers were coming online along the Gulf Coast, and new fractionation capacity wasn’t being added quickly enough — the capacity shortfall sent the NGL market into near-panic. Fast forward to now: NGL production is still rising but domestic demand is flat, resulting in…
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