#44 - Dean Spears - Population Decline Is Worse Than You Think

Win-Win with Liv Boeree

The world is having fewer babies than ever. But how bad is this, really? What's causing it? Is there a win-win solution out there that can help people have more babies, if they want them?

In this special "Win-Win Live" event, I speak to Professor Dean Spears - a demographer and economist whose research examines the impact of population decline. He's the author of the book "After The Spike" which explores why people are choosing to have fewer babies, and the stark realities it would mean if the population continues on its current path.

As you'll see, the latter half of this conversation opens up into a group discussion with many previous Win-Win guests who I invited to join because such a complex and sensitive topic requires as many perspectives as possible! What do you think is the solution? Let me know in the comments below.

Chapters:

0:22 - Introduction to the Fertility Crisis

4:12 - Why Over-Population Isn’t A Thing

11:17 - What’s Causing It?

16:03 - Role of Social Trends

18:20 - Role of Biological Infertility & Toxins

23:10 - Wouldn’t Fewer People Take Pressure Off The Environment?

28:56 - Climate, Ocean and Other Planetary Boundaries

32:28 - Paul Erlich and Dangers of Zero-Sum Thinking

36:25 - Can’t AI & Robots Fill The Economic Gap?

42:58 - Historical Strategies That Increased Birth Rates?48:40 - Impact of Contraception

52:57 - Which Sub-Populations Are Bucking The Trend?

57:37 - How To Help Women Have Careers And Babies?

59:56 - The Issues of A Heavily Elderly Population

1:05:13 - Examples of Successful Incentives

1:09:07 - More AI Stuff

1:17:47 - Opportunity Cost Hypothesis

1:22:28 - Won’t People Just Adapt?

1:27:55 - COVID-19 And Fertility Rate

1:29:17 - Family Size Distributions

1:34:31 - Research on Declining Intimacy

Links:

♾️ Dean's Website: https://deanspears.net/

♾️ After The Spike Book - https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/After-the-Spike/Dean-Spears/9781668057339

♾️ Dean's NYTimes article: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/29/opinion/population-climate-progress.html♾️ Population Projections: https://ourworldindata.org/un-population-2024-revision

Credits:

♾️ Hosted by Liv Boeree

♾️ Produced by Luca de Vico

The Win-Win Podcast:Poker champion Liv Boeree takes to the interview chair to tease apart the complexities of one of the most fundamental parts of human nature: competition. Liv is joined by top philosophers, gamers, artists, technologists, CEOs, scientists, athletes and more to understand how competition manifests in their world, and how to change seemingly win-lose games into Win-Wins.

Podcast links:

♾️ Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLWgq0OZMtwtOIyMsVM_vksqdfWcM-b68S♾️ Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/03bGVUaFZmJUmEvSHNDPdI?si=64379cc23696454f

♾️ Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/win-win-with-liv-boeree/id1724791350

♾️ Pocketcast: https://play.pocketcasts.com/podcasts/7f708340-d17c-013b-f46e-0acc26574db2 #winwinpodcast #populationdecline #fertilitycrisis