Episode 65: Peak fear and the return to normal: Crude markets find their footing

Trade with Conviction

In this episode of Trade with Conviction, Rachel, Neil, and June dissect the current crude oil landscape - from easing sanctions anxiety and shifting Chinese buying patterns to the tug-of-war between term and spot contracts. They dive into the changing dynamics of Russian crude flows, China’s strategic reserve buildout, OPEC’s cautious moves, and a freight market on fire, painting a picture of a market that’s steadying after turbulence but far from dull.

Key Takeaways:

> Have we passed “peak fear” on sanctions?
> Why Chinese refiners should lock in more term barrels.
> Freight rates surge: is the VLCC boom here to stay?
> Refining margins skyrocketing - how long can it last?
Chapters:

(00:39) Peak Fear and the Russian Barrel
Neil argues the market’s past “peak fear” — Russian flows continue, and sanctions are being absorbed rather than biting.

(02:30) India & China: Mixed Signals on Buying
Conflicting headlines, shifting optics, and why oil “always finds a way.”

(09:01) AG Market Cools — Term vs Spot
With ample supply and volatility, Chinese refiners rethink how much crude to lock in for 2026.

(12:14) China’s SPR Buildout
June breaks down China’s storage expansion — what 169 million barrels of new capacity could mean for demand.

(16:37) Freight Firestorm
VLCC rates surge again, shutting East–West arbs and reshaping crude differentials.

(21:00) Saudi OSPs & The Price Sweetener
Saudi price cuts for Asia hint at a push to secure term deals — and pressure on AG spot markets.

(19:03) The Rest of the Barrel: Products & Margins
From naphtha to diesel, Neil and June unpack refining margins, freight, and where cracks might finally weaken.