Lessons from a drama-filled week in Trumpland, China upends the EM development model and more

The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics

It’s been a drama-filled week in Trumpland and Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to take stock of what happened, what didn’t happen, and the implications for macro and markets.

As well as discussing the lessons learned from Donald Trump’s trade actions so far, Neil reviews the latest US labour market data and talks about why Europe and the US appear to be on such divergent economic paths.

Also on the episode, China Economist Leah Fahy talks to Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah about her striking new analysis which shows how China is taking market share from low-end EM manufacturers, upending a long-standing theory about how these economies industrialise in the process.

Events and analysis referenced in this episode:

EMs and the suspension of US aid
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/emerging-markets-economics-update/ems-and-suspension-us-aid

Drop In: Global Inflation Watch - How US and EU inflation paths are diverging
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-global-inflation-watch-how-us-and-eu-inflation-paths-are-diverging

Commodities Drop-In: Trump tariffs and global commodities markets
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/commodities-drop-trump-tariffs-and-global-commodities-markets