Navigating Complexity: Timothy Clancy on Modeling and Policy-Making

The Flux by Epistemix

In this episode of The Flux, hosted by John Cordier, CEO of Epistemix, we hear from Timothy Clancy, a researcher from the University of Maryland's START program. Recorded at the Complex Social Systems Society of the Americas Conference in Santa Fe, New Mexico, Clancy shares insights from his career, which spans government work and applied studies on national security. They discuss the evolution of modeling in policy-making, the challenges of visualizing complex data, and the importance of building trust with policy-makers. Clancy emphasizes the need for simplicity in communication, the enduring nature of integrating soft skills with technical models, and the crucial role of understanding organizational dynamics to drive impactful decisions. The conversation also touches on specific models he has worked on, including those related to countering ISIS and studying violence and instability, illustrating the importance of robust, scenario-driven simulations in informing policy.

00:00 Introduction to The Flux

00:47 Meet Timothy Clancy

01:03 Timothy's Background and Work

01:45 Challenges in Policy Making with Data

02:58 Visualization and Communication in Modeling

05:29 Timothy's Career Shift and Focus

07:00 Emerging State Actor Model

12:40 Modeling Sentiment and Radicalization

20:35 Counterfactuals and Policy Making

23:08 Navigating Policy Making Institutions

31:41 Conference Insights and Conclusion