Eleven Years?

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The stakes feel heavier when the numbers are this far apart. We break down why prosecutors are pushing for 135 months while the defense argues for 14, and we do it without the legal fog. Step by step, we explain the guidelines math—how a “threats or fear” cross-reference drives the base level up, how vulnerable victim, leadership, bodily injury, and obstruction enhancements stack, and why probation’s 70–87 month calculation diverges so sharply. Then we go beyond the spreadsheet to the human side: the victim letters asking the court to weigh lasting harm, and the question of remorse, denial, and what accountability should look like for someone with power.
We share what similar federal cases suggest, how Section 3553(a) factors guide a judge’s discretion, and where a realistic sentence might land if the court accepts some, but not all, of the government’s theory. You’ll hear how media reports frame the moment, why the gap between 14 months and 11 years is more than rhetoric, and how sentencing explanations matter for public trust and potential appeals. Along the way, our live chat wrestles with fairness—some calling for the book, others warning against guideline overreach—reminding us that justice has to make sense both in law and to people.
By the end, you’ll understand the moving parts: offense levels, grouping, enhancements, victim impact, and the practical reasons a judge might go high, low, or split the difference. We’re also going live Friday to watch the decision unfold together. If you value clear, candid analysis of high-profile cases, follow the show, share this episode with a friend, and drop your prediction for the final number in the comments.

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1. Cold Open, Disclaimers, Roll Call (00:00:00)

2. Prosecutors Seek 11 Years (00:03:20)

3. Sentencing Letter: Guidelines & Cross-Reference (00:05:00)

4. Probation vs Prosecution: Range Gap (00:07:10)

5. Enhancements: Vulnerable Victims, Obstruction, Leadership (00:10:45)

6. Community Reactions: What’s A Fair Number (00:15:30)

7. Victim Letters and Media Reports (00:18:50)

8. Judge’s Discretion and Likely Outcomes (00:23:20)

9. Off-Track Banter: Chat Chaos & Dating (00:27:30)

10. Re-focus: What Will The Judge Do (00:33:40)

11. Live Friday Announcement & Wrap (00:36:30)