September 25th, London Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

The Financial Source Podcast

Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (25 Sep 2025)

Episode focus
A concise, market-first rundown of FX, commodities, trade policy, and geopolitics shaping risk and cross-border flows today.

FX & central banks

• USD: Eases after Wednesday’s jump that peaked at DXY 97.92; traders eye a heavy U.S. data slate.
• EUR: Tracks the dollar and gravitates back toward 1.1750 ahead of German GfK and EZ loans data.
• GBP: Holds a tight ~1.3550 band with a light domestic calendar.
• JPY: USD/JPY firm and choppy, pushing back toward highs around 148 after BoJ minutes showed some members favor rate hikes “when possible,” while others prefer patience.
• CHF: Quiet into the SNB decision; markets look for a hold at 0.00%, with focus on any FX or tiering language.
• CNY: PBoC fix at 7.1118 vs. 7.1293 expected.
• Fed:
  • Mary Daly backs the 25bp “insurance” cut; says more “policy adjustments will likely be needed,” and that inflation excluding tariffs is roughly 2.4%–2.5%.
  • Austan Goolsbee warns against “overly frontloading” cuts; flags uncertainty around trade policy’s inflation effects.
• BoE: Megan Greene argues policymakers may need to offset supply shocks; says trade risks persist and inflation risks have shifted to the upside.

Commodities

• Crude oil: Pauses after two strong sessions driven by heightened Mideast tension and Russian supply disruptions; headlines on drones in Denmark didn’t move prices, but markets remain headline-sensitive.
• Gold: Consolidates in a tight range after pulling back from near USD 3,800/oz as quarter-end profit taking tempers bids.
• Copper: LME prices retrace part of Wednesday’s rally post-Grasberg Block Cave force majeure. One bank now sees a 250–260kt 2025 loss at Grasberg (down from 700kt prior), trims 2025/2026 mine-supply growth to +0.2%/+1.9% y/y, and says risks to its Dec-2025 LME price forecast of USD 9,700/t are skewed up, expecting USD 10,200–10,500/t, with a USD 10,750/t by 2027 long-term view.
• Russia energy: Rosneft’s Novokuibyshevsk refinery halted processing on Sept 20 after a drone attack.

Trade, tariffs & policy

• TikTok: White House expected to sign the deal Thursday; reports say China and all parties agreed to terms.
• U.S.–China: Staff-level Chinese delegation visits U.S. Treasury for technical discussions on trade/economy (not a negotiation round; TikTok not on the agenda).
• Section 232: U.S. opens a national-security probe into robotics, machinery, and medical devices imports.
• Rare earths: U.S. discussing broader G7/EU measures (tariffs, price floors, or other actions) to curb price dumping.
• EU–China: von der Leyen cites a “good and frank” exchange with Li Qiang; says she appreciates willingness to engage on trade.
• Aviation: U.S. warns European countries not to restrict air travel in violation of bilateral agreements.
• U.S.–Korea: Treasury Sec. Bessent says the alliance “remains strong”; Seoul’s Finance Ministry notes FX swap discussions.
• U.S.–Japan: Planning for a late-October presidential visit.
• U.S. shutdown prep: OMB instructs agencies to prepare workforce-reduction plans in case of a shutdown.

Geopolitics & security

• Northern Europe: Danish police report unidentified drones over four airports, briefly closing one; later said drones were no longer present over Aalborg.
• Gaza diplomacy: Axios reports regional support for a U.S.-presented plan covering release of hostages, a permanent cease-fire, phased Israeli withdrawal, a post-war governance and security mechanism (Palestinians with Arab/Muslim troops), and funding for reconstruction.
• Iran: France, Germany, U.K. move to activate UN snapback sanctions; Macron says Iran must never obtain a nuclear weapon and must allow inspectors back; U.S. envoy says talks with Iran are ongoing.
• EU–U.S. alignment: FT cites officials saying some EU leaders increasingly see Washington as less reliable, and worry rhetoric on Ukraine could shift blame if Kyiv falters.

Today’s data & event cues (FX/commodities-relevant)

• Europe: German GfK consumer sentiment (Oct).
• U.S.: Durable Goods (Aug), GDP Final (Q2), PCE Final (Q2), Jobless Claims, Advance Goods Trade Balance (Aug); numerous Fed speakers.
• Switzerland: SNB policy decision—watch the FX and tiering phrasing.

Soundbites to remember

• Daly: “Inflation excluding tariffs is roughly 2.4%–2.5%.”
• Goolsbee: Cautions against a series of cuts and overly frontloading easing.
• Greene: Monetary policy may need to offset supply shocks rather than look through them.

Levels & markers (context)

• DXY peak Wednesday: 97.92
• EUR/USD: around 1.1750
• GBP/USD: around 1.3550
• USD/JPY: testing ~148
• PBoC fix: 7.1118
• Gold: near USD 3,800/oz recent highs