October 15th, New York Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

The Financial Source Podcast

Show Notes — October 15, 2025

Focus: FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics

FX

• The USD weakened for a second session, weighed by dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who cited rising downside risks to jobs and hinted that balance-sheet runoff may be nearing its end.
• The EUR remains firm above 1.16, supported by political stability in France after PM Lecornu suspended pension reform and the Socialist Party confirmed it will not support a no-confidence motion.
• The JPY extended gains as safe-haven demand persisted amid renewed U.S.–China trade tensions; USD/JPY briefly dipped below 151.
• The GBP stabilized after Tuesday’s dip, with BoE’s Bailey saying labour data confirms a softening jobs market, while Chancellor Reeves noted plans for possible tax rises and spending cuts in the upcoming budget.
• AUD and NZD strengthened modestly, helped by a stronger yuan fixing from the PBoC and hawkish remarks from RBA Assistant Governor Hunter, who said Q3 inflation may come in higher than expected.

Commodities

• Gold extended its record-breaking rally, surpassing USD 4,200/oz, driven by expectations of further Fed rate cuts and ongoing trade frictions.
• Oil remained rangebound, with WTI trading below USD 59/bbl and Brent under USD 62.50/bbl, as traders balanced global trade tensions with the delayed U.S. inventory data.
• Russia’s Deputy PM Novak said current oil prices reflect an equilibrium in the global energy market and confirmed that Russia could increase output if needed, while global oil demand continues to rise.
• Base metals traded mixed; copper briefly touched USD 10.75k/t before easing as traders digested Fed commentary and a weaker dollar.

Tariffs & Trade

• China’s Foreign Ministry urged the U.S. to return to dialogue and cooperation, saying both sides should “engage in talks.”
• Beijing filed a WTO complaint against India over electric-vehicle and battery subsidies, arguing the policy discriminates against Chinese producers and threatens domestic industry.
• ASML’s CFO said the company is well-prepared for rare-earth export controls and that customer uncertainty around tariffs has eased since July, although steel and aluminium tariffs are still impacting costs slightly.
• USTR’s Greer reiterated that recent discussions with China on rare-earth measures have been constructive but warned that 100% tariffs could still be imposed depending on China’s next actions.

Europe & Central Banks

• ECB’s Villeroy reaffirmed that the next policy move is more likely to be a rate cut, and that the impact of U.S. tariffs on Eurozone inflation should remain limited.
• ECB’s de Guindos, Lane, and Lagarde are all due to speak later in the day, with markets watching for further guidance on timing and magnitude of any future easing.
• In the UK, Chancellor Reeves said both tax rises and spending cuts are under consideration for the November budget, aiming to restore fiscal discipline.
• In France, Socialist leader Olivier Faure confirmed support for the government’s fiscal plan, saying the proposed “Zucman tax” on wealthy property holdings will be reintroduced.

Geopolitics

• Middle East:
  • Israeli officials said the Rafah crossing will remain closed for logistical reasons as investigations continue into one of the four bodies returned during the latest hostage handover.
  • Markets viewed the developments as signs of fragile but sustained de-escalation, trimming crude’s geopolitical risk premium.
• Russia & Energy:
  • Novak confirmed Russia’s gas exports account for 19% of European imports and that Moscow remains open to further discussions on supply with Europe.
• Asia-Pacific:
  • Japan’s Parliamentary Committee failed to agree on a date for the next prime ministerial vote after the collapse of the ruling coalition.
  • RBA and RBNZ officials reiterated their data-dependent stance, with both central banks suggesting policy tightening cycles are complete for now.

Key Data & Developments

• Eurozone Industrial Production (Aug) beat expectations at +1.1% Y/Y versus -0.2% expected, easing concerns about regional manufacturing slowdown.
• China CPI (Sep) fell 0.3% Y/Y, remaining in deflationary territory; PPI also declined 2.3% Y/Y, underscoring weak domestic demand.

Outlook

• Watch for the Fed Beige Book, which may reveal early evidence of slowing U.S. labour-market momentum and business sentiment.
• ECB speakers and BoE’s Breeden may refine the tone around the next policy steps in Europe.
• U.S.–China trade rhetoric remains the key macro swing factor for FX and commodities in the near term.
• Gold and oil are likely to remain sensitive to Fed easing expectations and geopolitical headlines, particularly around the Middle East.