Inside the Data: What Shapes Startup Deal Sizes in Africa

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Data-driven study uses machine learning to reveal the key factors influencing African startup deal amounts and investment outcomes.
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This study analyzes over 2,500 publicly disclosed African startup deals to uncover what drives investment sizes. By cleaning, merging, and engineering data from africathebigdeal.com, features were grouped into founding-team, company, and investment categories. Exploratory Data Analysis and four machine learning models — Linear Regression, SVR, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosting — were used to predict deal amounts. The best-performing model, validated via cross-validation, forms the basis for data-backed insights and policy recommendations aimed at strengthening Africa’s startup funding ecosystem.