The Wire - August 21, 2024

S2 Underground

//The Wire//2230Z August 21, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: MIDDLE EAST PEACE TALKS CONTINUE TENUOUSLY. U.K. UNREST REMAINS AMID CRACKDOWNS. HOUTHI ATTACKS CONTINUE IN RED SEA.//

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-International Events-

United Kingdom: Overnight a man murdered a woman and three children by burning them alive in their home in Bradford. The man was arrested at the scene.

Yesterday, a delivery driver was stabbed to death in Leeds after trying to stop his van from being stolen. His body was found beside the road by a passerby, and he later died at a local hospital.

Around the nation demonstrations against the regime continue despite heavy-handed responses by authorities.

Ireland: Another migrant center in Dublin was burned down by local Irishmen overnight. No arrests have been made regarding this arson incident.

Germany: Yesterday a man was executed in the central train station in Frankfurt, with the assailant approaching the victim and shooting him in the back of the head with a pistol in the main hall of the station. Local reports indicate both the victim and perpetrator are of Turkish descent/nationality.

Red Sea/HOA: Houthi attacks continue as before. Yesterday two ships were attacked in typical fashion by Houthi forces, with varying success. The M/V SUNION was reportedly struck by two Houthi missiles, with the crew abandoning ship due to uncontrolled fires onboard the vessel.

Middle East: Iranian statements and actions over the past few days have indicated that Iran’s much-awaited response to Israel’s attack weeks ago likely has been postponed. Low-level exercises and routine Iranian military activity has been observed, along with Iranian statements that indicate that no major military action will take place for the time being, at least while the peace talks are ongoing.

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Analyst Comments: Iranian officials, like much of the Middle East, tend to use extremely passive language, never speaking directly about anything. As such, Iranian officials at varying levels have made small statements over the past few days suggesting that “patience” is needed, that the response may take “a long time”, or other extremely passive statements. This language is probably the most direct way that Iran will communicate that they don’t intend to do anything for now.

Regarding the peace talks, very little information has leaked out so far to indicate how the situation is developing. Various American statements have suggested the talks remain positive and hopeful. However, these statements remain dubious considering the reality of the situation. Yesterday US SECSTATE Blinken left Egypt abruptly, suggesting that things are not going so well. This is exemplified by a continuation of routine combat actions by Hamas, Hezbollah, and Israel (mostly comprising of limited strikes or harassing rocket attacks), further indicating that no side is as serious about peace as the United States would have everyone believe.

In the United Kingdom, the arrest, conviction, and sentencing of anti-migration demonstrators has already gone beyond the pale of civilized society, into the utterly absurd. Yesterday, a man was sentenced in Bristol to almost two years in prison for shouting at a police dog and making allegedly racist remarks. Others have been arrested, convicted, and sentenced in quick succession to many years in prison for ridiculously low-level offenses that would not even be a crime in traditionally western societies. As such, British authorities would do well to observe the stakes that they themselves are raising; when low-level crimes are treated more seriously than capital crimes, common sense would dictate that the latter will become more preferrable to the former.

Analyst: S2A1

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