A grimmer 2020, but brighter days ahead in 2021? (Selena Ling)

OCBC Treasury Research and Strategy - Podcast

The latest MAS survey of professional forecasters (SPF) shared some interesting insights, namely the worst is likely over, but the Singapore economy will still see a severe 2020 recession with GDP growth likely to shrink 6% yoy. However, there may be a sharp growth bounce of 5.5% in 2021, notwithstanding the familiar risks of an escalation in the Covid-19 pandemic and US-China tensions. Consequently, the mild disinflationary environment should subside and revert to positive inflation prints next year. The policy implication is that MAS is likely to be static at the upcoming monetary policy review in October.