153: Patrick McKenzie: Navigating Complex Systems: From Software Engineering to Real Estate

Narratives w/Will Jarvis

### Podcast Title
"Navigating Complex Systems: From Software Engineering to Real Estate"

### Summary
In this episode of Narratives, host William Jarvis is joined by co-host Lars Doucet and special guest Patrick McKenzie. Patrick shares his journey from moving to Japan due to a misleading Wall Street Journal article to becoming a notable figure in the software engineering world, eventually working at Stripe and now advising and writing about financial infrastructure.

The conversation delves into the state of the software engineering job market, the impact of large language models, and why Patrick believes the market is healthier than many think. Patrick discusses his method for arriving at contrarian viewpoints and the importance of revisiting past predictions to learn from them.

Patrick also shares fascinating insights into how his father, a real estate acquisition specialist, taught him to "read the street" and understand the factors influencing business locations, particularly for companies like Walgreens. This leads to a broader discussion on the complexities of regulatory environments and how to navigate them, especially in highly regulated industries like property tax assessment and healthcare.

The episode wraps up with advice for startups working in regulated industries, emphasizing the need to balance understanding the regulatory landscape while maintaining the drive to create value. Patrick's experience with the vaccinateCA initiative during the COVID-19 pandemic showcases how quickly adding state capacity can lead to significant improvements in public services.

### Podcast Notes

**Introduction:**
- Host: William Jarvis
- Co-host: Lars Doucet
- Guest: Patrick McKenzie

**Key Topics Covered:**
1. **Patrick’s Background:**
- Moving to Japan based on a Wall Street Journal article.
- Professional journey: Japanese salaryman, startup experience, joining Stripe, and current advisory and newsletter work.

2. **State of the Software Engineering Market:**
- Misconceptions from the past and present.
- Impact of large language models on the job market.
- The ongoing need for skilled engineers despite technological advancements.

3. **Methodology for Arriving at Contrarian Views:**
- Importance of reviewing past predictions.
- Learning from mistakes and maintaining an evidence-based approach.

4. **Real Estate Insights from Patrick’s Father:**
- Understanding why certain locations are chosen for businesses.
- The difference between destination and non-destination locations.
- Sociological and logistical factors influencing real estate decisions.

5. **Navigating Regulatory Environments:**
- Balancing empathy and effectiveness in highly regulated industries.
- Avoiding regulatory capture while striving for positive change.
- Lessons from working at Stripe and the vaccinateCA initiative.

6. **Advice for Startups in Regulated Industries:**
- Understanding the incentive structures and constraints of participants.
- Maintaining focus on creating value.
- The importance of adding state capacity and being adaptable.

**Conclusion:**
- Patrick’s contact information and where to find his work.

**Sponsor Acknowledgment:**
- Special thanks to Bismarck Analysis for their support.
- Mention of the Bismarck Brief newsletter.

This episode provides valuable insights into the software engineering market, real estate dynamics, and practical advice for navigating regulatory environments, making it a must-listen for anyone interested in these fields.