Tom Kondrat on Regulatory Changes and EV Market Impacts

Inside Automotive with Jim Fitzpatrick, powered by CBT News

Electric vehicle demand has shifted dramatically with the expiration of federal incentives, and on this episode of Inside Automotive, Tom Kondrat, Global Lead for Advanced Analytics at Urban Science, breaks down what these changes mean for dealers and the industry. Kondrat shares insights on sales trends, regional differences, and consumer behavior as dealerships prepare for 2026.

Topics covered in this episode include:

• October EV sales dropped 45% after federal tax incentives expired, following earlier pull-ahead demand
• Plug-in hybrids saw a 50% decline, while traditional hybrids grew 15%
• Regional differences in EV demand, with stronger sales in California and Florida compared to softer Midwest markets
• Larger all-electric SUVs and pickups struggling, while smaller EVs like Tesla Model Y and Mustang Mach-E perform well
• Implications of regulatory shifts, including CAFE rules and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act
• Market trends for U.S.-assembled versus foreign-assembled vehicles and forecasts for Q4 2025 and early 2026

Kondrat emphasizes that while incentives impacted sales timing, overall industry performance remains strong, and dealers should plan strategically for evolving consumer demand.

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1. Setting The Stage For October (00:00:00)

2. EV Spike Before Incentives End (00:00:36)

3. October EV Drop And Inventory Gaps (00:01:02)

4. BEVs vs PHEVs vs Hybrids (00:01:52)

5. Why Big EV Trucks Struggle (00:04:41)

6. Tesla’s Momentum And Policy Shifts (00:05:30)

7. Affordability, Luxury Softness, And Seasonality (00:06:42)

8. Tariffs And The Quiet Shift To U.S. Assembly (00:08:35)

9. Forecast: Q4 Slowdown, Year Finishes Strong (00:10:36)

10. Early 2025 Outlook And EV Rebound Timing (00:12:06)

11. Dealer Realities: Techs, Fixed Ops, Used Supply (00:13:45)