GLED014 - FOMC Decision Day - Global Central Bank Divergence & Cross-Border Capital Flows

GLOBAL REAL ESTATE DAILY

Tuesday morning FOMC decision day analysis for global institutional real estate capital positioning ahead of central bank divergence opportunities. **Global Central Bank Divergence:** Federal Reserve 93% probability 25bp cut to 4.00%-4.25% while ECB holds at 4.50% and BOJ maintains ultra-low rates. Currency-driven acquisition windows emerging for international capital with USD positioning creating cross-border opportunities. **Cross-Border Capital Acceleration:** Asia-Pacific investment doubled 116.7% YoY to $9.5B. International investors 28.4% of regional activity. North America projected 38% increase to $575B. Central/Eastern Europe surging 51% YoY with Slovakia up 315%. **Sovereign Wealth Fund Reallocation:** Real estate allocations declining to 7.3% from 9.2% in 2022. Infrastructure surpassing real estate at 8.1% for first time. Total SWF assets $13-14T. Middle Eastern funds controlling 54% of global deployment. **Global CMBS Intelligence:** Private-label issuance $59.55B H1 2025 (35% YoY increase, highest in 15+ years). SASB deals 75% of market. Delinquency 7.9% with $150.9B maturing 2025 creating refinancing opportunities. **Regional Performance:** EMEA moderate 6% growth with UK top cross-border destination. Asia-Pacific 13% increase excluding Greater China. Data centers 83% investment spike globally. **Sector Positioning:** Multifamily and industrial benefiting from lower financing costs globally. Office sector bifurcation with prime assets outperforming. Retail maintaining strength across regions. **Global Institutional Advantage:** Central bank divergence creating institutional arbitrage opportunities for pension funds and sovereign wealth funds positioning for cross-border deployment acceleration. Contact: [email protected]