Evan Silva’s Matchups: Dolphins at Rams

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Editor’s Note: This Matchup was written by John Daigle, with input from Evan Silva.

Monday Night Football

Miami @ L.A. Rams

Team Totals: Dolphins 24.5, Rams 26

It’s the moment you’ve been waiting for if rostering any Dolphins ahead of Monday Night Football: Following in Raheem Morris’ footsteps with a blend of zone coverage (73.9%, ninth) and, in particular, Cover 3 (39.9%, fourth), Rams DC Chris Shula is about to be cornered by Tua Tagovailoa, who’s completed a league-best 79% of his passes for 8.0 yards per attempt against said scheme (per Fantasy Points Data). While Los Angeles’ pass rush has improved in three games out of their bye with a 38.1% pressure rate (fourth), Sam Darnold and Geno Smith combined for 10.2 yards per attempt and five touchdowns the past two weeks. … Boasting target shares of 19.4%, 18.9%, 21%, and 29.6% as the overall RB2 (behind Alvin Kamara) in Tua’s four starts, De’Von Achane’s two carries inside the 10-yard line (including one from the 5) in Week 9 arguably gifts him the highest matchup-proof ceiling of any RB in fantasy moving forward. Further complicating matters behind him, Raheem Mostert’s sixth fumble in his last 16 games during the third quarter against Buffalo forced fourth-round speedster Jaylen Wright onto the field for five touches to Mostert’s one down the stretch. I do not expect Mostert to be boxed out completely, but Wright — 26/155/0 (5.9 yards per carry) over his last four games with a 4.38 forty and the second-longest broad jump (11’2″) of any RB in NFL Combine history — should be stashed in 12-/14-team leagues ahead of any increased usage.

Jury’s out on whether Tyreek Hill (wrist) will actually be available for this game; HC Mike McDaniel ominously said, “If [Hill’s] body lets him, he’ll play.” Similar to Puka Nacua’s status in lineups ahead of his debut, managers should simply start Tyreek if he plays: Enemy WR1s have posted 19.5 (Justin Jefferson) and 37 fantasy points (Jaxon Smith-Njigba) against Los Angeles the last two weeks. Note that Jaylen Waddle registered a 37.1% target share with Hill off the field prior to this season (per Sports Info Solutions), boosting the former to WR1 status if Hill were scratched. Waddle should be acquired for pennies regardless of Hill’s availability given his 22% target share behind Tyreek last year (compared to 2024’s measly 13.7% mark). … Odell Beckham’s availability has directly impacted sixth-rounder Malik Washington (5-foot-9/191) with the latter’s route participation plummeting (37.5% < 22.5% < 13.3%) in three games out of their bye. Beckham’s season-high 30% route rate from Week 9 resulted in 3/30/0. … Jonnu Smith has been fed in four games around Miami’s bye, earning at least 21% of the team’s targets in three of four games and, on the season, a 19.4% share. Brock Bowers (10/93/0), Josh Oliver (2/30/1), and A.J. Barner (4/27/0) have provided usable scores against the Rams post-bye.

Unable to buy a QB1 score before Week 8, Cooper Kupp’s and Nacua’s returns have lifted 36-year-old Matthew Stafford to QB6 and QB14 finishes with six touchdowns (to two picks). Averaging 5.6 yards per play the last two weeks, Los Angeles’ offense will be further improved with starting G/Cs Jonah Jackson and Steve Avila both activated from I.R. Miami had limited QBs (amid their soft schedule) to the league’s fewest points per game until running into Kyler Murray (22.2) and Josh Allen (22.1) of late. … Kyren Williams most recently logged 76 snaps to Blake Corum’s one, keeping a stranglehold of the team’s RB1 role. The Dolphins have been busted open for 2.7 yards after contact per attempt (second), cementing Williams’ top-five outlook.

Kupp has earned 23.5% and 33.3% target shares since returning from injury, seeing 14 targets in his latest game after Nacua got ejected in the second quarter; to that point, Puka had quietly mirrored Kupp in routes run (89%) as a full-time player. The extra rest between kickoffs should help Nacua further recover from his in-practice knee injury as a neck-and-neck WR1 alongside Kupp. I lean Nacua if forced to choose one given his insane 43% target-per-route-run rate from Week 8. … Demarcus Robinson has averaged 15.3 fantasy points (WR14) with a team-high 11 end-zone targets to Kupp’s nine over his last nine games from 3-WR sets behind his superhero teammates. Two touchdowns weekly are not expected, but he’s a viable FLEX option for this elite environment. Tutu Atwell has been phased out completely (four routes) with the team at full strength. … Colby Parkinson has totaled 2/17/0 (on two targets) as an afterthought behind the Rams’ WRs. He’s interesting (albeit slightly) exclusively in showdown for Miami’s performance against TEs (11/135/0 and 5/34/1) the past two games.

Score Prediction: Rams 31, Dolphins 28