CropGPT - Cocoa - Week 45

CropGPT - Cocoa

This episode covers key developments in the global cocoa market.

• In the Ivory Coast, the main crop harvest has begun under favorable dry weather, which has improved cocoa bean drying conditions. However, despite a strong start, cocoa exports have declined from 365,072 metric tons to 304,140 metric tons early in the marketing year. This, combined with ICE-monitored inventories hitting a seven-and-a-half-month low, may add upward pressure on prices. The decline in exports could also signal deeper issues related to forestry management or macroeconomic instability.
• Ghana's cocoa sector is experiencing a mix of beneficial and adverse conditions. While strong weather supports pod development and yield potential, the industry is hampered by smuggling, driven by price gaps and delayed farmer payments. The government has introduced informant reward programs and improved pricing strategies to combat these challenges. It is also supporting farmers with subsidies, including free fertilizers and pesticides, to retain agricultural value within the country.
• In Nigeria, cocoa production is forecasted to drop by 11% in the 2025-2026 crop year, down to 305,000 metric tons. This decline is linked to aging plantations and insufficient access to fertilizers, posing a risk to Nigeria’s economy and tightening global supply, which may further influence price trends.
• Cocoa’s inclusion in the Bloomberg Commodity Index is expected to draw inflows from passive investment funds, possibly stabilizing or lifting cocoa futures. However, the market remains vulnerable to softening global demand. Grinding volumes—a proxy for demand—have decreased across Asia, Europe, and North America. Elevated cocoa prices and tariffs have also curbed chocolate consumption in key consumer regions like North America.