SH143: 'Entirely Predictable' vs 'Managing Uncertainty': How many rolls on the dice?

Counter-Errorism in Diving: Applying Human Factors to Diving

In this episode, we delve into the complexities of managing risk and uncertainty in diving, challenging the notion that accidents are "entirely predictable." Unlike measurable risks, diving involves countless variables that create uncertainty, often managed through mental shortcuts and biases. We discuss how hindsight bias, overconfidence, and peer pressure can cloud judgment, leading to poor decisions. Effective feedback, teamwork, and tools like checklists can reduce uncertainty, while debriefs and learning from others’ mistakes are crucial for improvement. Tune in to explore how divers can navigate uncertainty to enhance safety and performance in this high-stakes environment.

Original blog: https://www.thehumandiver.com/blog/uncertainty-vs-predictable

Links: Risk vs Uncertainty: http://www.mindtherisk.com/literature/67-risk-savvy-by-gerd-gigerenzer

Thinking, Fast and Slow: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thinking,_Fast_and_Slow

Blog about the Dunning Kruger effect: https://www.thehumandiver.com/blog/incompetent-and-unaware-you-don-t-know-what-you-don-t-know

Blog about biases: https://www.humaninthesystem.co.uk/blog/i-am-biased-you-are-biased-we-are-all-biased

Tags: English, Decision Making, Gareth Lock, Risk