Seeing like an outsider, with Yatharth

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

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157 subscribers

تمت الإضافة منذ thirty-five أسبوع

المحتوى المقدم من Patrick McKenzie. يتم تحميل جميع محتويات البودكاست بما في ذلك الحلقات والرسومات وأوصاف البودكاست وتقديمها مباشرة بواسطة Patrick McKenzie أو شريك منصة البودكاست الخاص بهم. إذا كنت تعتقد أن شخصًا ما يستخدم عملك المحمي بحقوق الطبع والنشر دون إذنك، فيمكنك اتباع العملية الموضحة هنا https://ar.player.fm/legal.

منذ عام واحد 1:19:31

MP3•منزل الحلقة

Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/outside-view-yatharth/

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Sponsor: Check

Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you.

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Links:

Yatharth’s writing https://itsyatharth.substack.com/
Rules for Radicals by Saul Alinsky https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rules_for_Radicals
Dave Kasten on Complex Systems https://open.spotify.com/episode/66SSmxK2Kpyef7WUxXxS6w?si=5EZYfZ7gThG8WV7hSs1aFQ
Lars Doucet on Complex Systems https://open.spotify.com/episode/2XQjSGCfW6XIu1AFB4oZeR?si=n3C28PymT6m7pPqFb2NE8Q
Bits about Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/

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Twitter:
@askyatharth
@patio11

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro
(01:30) Patrick's early interest in credit cards
(03:53) Navigating financial challenges
(05:10) Becoming a financial advisor
(10:35) Cultural and educational insights
(18:57) Sponsor: Check
(22:14) Personal stories and reflections
(25:48) Parenting and cultural integration
(33:26) Writing and storytelling journey
(37:35) Translating financial systems for a new audience
(39:08) The role of AI in writing and style transfer
(40:46) The concept of alpha in writing
(44:48) Legal advice and AI's role
(52:12) The impact of AI on bureaucratic systems
(01:04:22) Reflections on government software and policy
(01:13:49) Sabbatical insights and future interests
(01:18:52) Wrap

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Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.

33 حلقات

#Trading #Business #Patrick McKenzie #Technology #Finance #Government #Software #Incentive #Culture #Tech

Seeing like an outsider, with Yatharth

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

157 subscribers

published منذ عام واحد

MP3•منزل الحلقة

Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/outside-view-yatharth/

–
Sponsor: Check

–

Links:

Yatharth’s writing https://itsyatharth.substack.com/
Rules for Radicals by Saul Alinsky https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rules_for_Radicals
Dave Kasten on Complex Systems https://open.spotify.com/episode/66SSmxK2Kpyef7WUxXxS6w?si=5EZYfZ7gThG8WV7hSs1aFQ
Lars Doucet on Complex Systems https://open.spotify.com/episode/2XQjSGCfW6XIu1AFB4oZeR?si=n3C28PymT6m7pPqFb2NE8Q
Bits about Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/

–

Twitter:
@askyatharth
@patio11

–
Timestamps:

–

Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse.

33 حلقات

#Trading #Business #Patrick McKenzie #Technology #Finance #Government #Software #Incentive #Culture #Tech

كل الحلقات

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

1
A tale of two Americas in one $50K cash withdrawal 40:47

منذ 4 أيام40:47

40:47

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) explains the standard procedure for large withdrawals in bank branches, with particular focus on the viral story published in The Cut about a woman who withdrew $50,000 cash from a bank and handed it to scammers. Certain minor details in the article set off a year-long investigation where he identified the exact physical location of the bank branch in question, researched the context for the transaction using public records, and obtained new details through FOIA requests. His investigation reveals an underlying narrative that accounts for what actually happened , and provides a worked example for fact-checking in journalism. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/two-americas-one-50k-withdrawal/ – Sponsors: Safebase Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast – Recommended in this episode: Two Americas, one bank, and $50,000 cash https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/two-americas-one-bank-branch/ The Cut, The Day I Put $50,000 in a Shoe Box and Handed It to a Stranger https://www.thecut.com/article/amazon-scam-call-ftc-arrest-warrants.html Kelsey Piper on Complex Systems https://open.spotify.com/episode/33rHTZVowaq76tCTaKJfRB Jim McKenzie on Complex Systems https://open.spotify.com/episode/6ocJirzGTStuf0K9ITM21X – Timestamps: (00:55) Suppose you ask a bank to withdraw $50,000 in cash (07:55) Style magazines sometimes publish hard-hitting journalism (12:36) Reaching out to Vox Media (17:09) Sources of doubt (22:30) The physical reality of bank branches (25:53) In which we became acquainted with brisk walks across Brooklyn (34:42) New York’s Finest foil FOIL for a time…

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

1
AI, data centers, and power economics, with Azeem Azhar 1:13:53

منذ 11 يومًا1:13:53

1:13:53

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Azeem Azhar, writer of the Exponential View newsletter, to discuss the massive data center buildout powering AI and its implications for our energy infrastructure. The conversation covers the physical limitations of modern datacenters, the challenges of electricity generation, the societal ripples from historical largescale infrastructure investments like railways and telecommunications, and the future of energy including solar, nuclear and geothermal power. Through their discussion, Patrick and Azeem explain why our mental models for both computing and energy systems need to be updated. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/ai-llm-data-center-power-economics/ – Sponsors: Safebase | Check Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you. – Recommended in this episode: Azeem’s newsletter: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Azeem Azhar’s guest essay: The 19th-Century Technology That Threatens A.I. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/28/opinion/ai-electricity-power-plants.html Electric Twin: https://www.electrictwin.com/ Video of Elon Musk’s Colossus https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tw696JVSxJQ Complex Systems with Travis Dauwalter on the electrical grid: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5JY8e84sEXmHFlc8IR2kRb?si=35ymIC0UQ5SKdV8rrBcgIw Complex Systems with Austin Vernon on fracking: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0YDV1XyjUCM2RtuTcBGYH9?si=YshjUXPEQBiScNxrNaI-Gw Complex Systems with Casey Handmer on direct capture of CO2 to turn into hydrocarbon: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0GHegWgLSubYxvATmbWhQu?si=xNYBjn0ZTX2IT_pAZ5Ozsg – Twitter: @azeem @patio11 – Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:27) The power economics of data centers (01:12) Historical infrastructure rollouts (04:58) The telecoms bubble (06:22) Unprecedented enterprise spend on AI capabilities (11:12) Let's have your LLM talk to my LLM (16:44) Is there a saturation point? (19:25) Sponsors: Safebase | Check (21:55) What’s in a data center? (24:52) The challenges of data centers (29:40) Geographical considerations for data centers (36:53) Energy consumption and future needs (40:48) Challenges in building transmission lines (41:35) The solar power learning curve (43:51) Small modular nuclear reactors (51:26) Geothermal energy and fracking (01:01:34) The future of AI and energy systems (01:12:57) Wrap…

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

1
You can’t retract the facts 42:03

منذ 18 يومًا42:03

42:03

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) responds to a recent request by a crypto unicorn founder / bank CEO to retract his essay Debanking (and debunking?). Come for the note about editorial standards and independence, stay for the diss track. – Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/editorial-standards-and-independence/ – Sponsors: Safebase | Check Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you. – Recommended in this episode: Debanking (and debunking?): https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/debanking-and-debunking/ CEO: Retract your debanking article? Me: No. https://www.kalzumeus.com/2025/02/10/retraction-request-denied/ Geekiest rap single in history https://suno.com/song/c5ac7441-4a0b-4e5e-9c85-480e3ba63fc1 – Twitter: @patio11 – Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (03:04) Musical interlude (04:56) Return to commentary (06:35) You can’t please everyone (08:06) The bar for retraction is high (10:07) Our review of the retraction request (10:37) “A few areas were incorrect or misleading” (16:12) “Lots of omission of key facts” (18:57) “Missing the point about what we mean by debunking” (20:40) Sponsors: Safebase | Check (25:00) Our response to McCauley’s testimony (28:24) McCauley’s concluding remarks and our response (30:21) Bank CEOs do not often ask writers for retractions (34:20) Some context regarding custodial banks (40:50) Returning to our regularly scheduled programming…

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

1
Stablecoins and shenanigans, with Zeke Faux 1:27:03

منذ 25 يومًا1:27:03

1:27:03

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Zeke Faux, investigative reporter at Bloomberg and author of Number Go Up , to discuss stablecoins and crypto fraud. They dive into Tether's controversial history, the senate’s emerging GENIUS act, and how crypto enables various types of financial crime. The conversation explores how Tether went from a “quilted collection of red flags” to becoming crypto's dominant stablecoin, its noteworthy relationship with Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX, and its current political maneuvering. They also discuss the societal value of financial regulation versus laissez-faire approaches to consumer protection. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/zeke-faux-stablecoins-tether/ – Sponsors: Check Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you. – Recommended in this episode: Number Go Up: https://zekefaux.com/ Anyone Seen Tether’s Billions? Zeke Faux, Bloomberg Businessweek: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-10-07/crypto-mystery-where-s-the-69-billion-backing-the-stablecoin-tether Patrick’s review of Number Go Up: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/a-review-of-number-go-up-on-crypto-shenanigans/ Doesn't Matter, That's Reg E: https://suno.com/song/173bbd67-92f7-4868-930f-efeca4b373c0 – Twitter: @zekefaux @patio11 – Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:45) The GENIUS act of 2025 (02:28) Tether's audit controversy (05:49) The origins and impact of Tether (08:17) Investigative reporting and red flags (12:58) Tether's shady business practices (19:23) Tether meets SBF (21:40) Sponsor: Check (22:51) New anecdotes in the Number Go Up paperback (28:53) The role of stable coins in crime (38:20) The importance of AML and KYC rules (44:21) Financial privacy (45:18) Sam Bankman-Fried's conference in the Bahamas (47:14) Loot NFTs (49:34) Axie Infinity: a case study (52:30) Crypto's real-world consequences (58:15) Regulation and financial safety (01:05:40) Stablecoin bill and ownership limits (01:06:50) Political realignment and crypto (01:14:40) Citizen journalists and the crypto-skeptic community (01:20:36) The abilities and limitations of institutional journalists (01:26:00) Wrap…

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

1
Power plays: grid economics and engineering, with Travis Dauwalter 1:13:46

منذ 5 weeks1:13:46

1:13:46

Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Travis Dauwalter, energy enthusiast (and PhD), to explain the systems we often take for granted behind the US electrical grid. The conversation covers how the grid maintains perfect supply-demand balance in real-time, the challenges of integrating renewable energy sources, and why America actually has three separate interconnected grids. Patrick and Travis weave through the economics of power generation, transmission line physics, and how data centers are reshaping energy markets. (Also, in a bit of a surprise, Patrick defends the honor of Bitcoin miners.) – Full transcript available here: complexsystemspodcast.com/electricity-grids-travis-dauwalter/ – Sponsors: Check Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you. – Links: Utility Dive: https://www.utilitydive.com/ The Bitter Lesson by Rich Sutton: https://www.cs.utexas.edu/~eunsol/courses/data/bitter_lesson.pdf Austin Vernon on Fracking: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0YDV1XyjUCM2RtuTcBGYH9 Casey Handmer on Solar Economics: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0GHegWgLSubYxvATmbWhQu – Twitter: @TravisDauwalter @patio11 Travis’ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/travisdauwalter/ – Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:28) Understanding the energy grid (02:22) The complexity of supply and demand (05:43) Regional differences in energy grids (08:16) Seasonal and daily energy demand (11:22) Renewable energy and storage solutions (17:17) Sponsor: Check (18:29) Renewable energy and storage solutions (continued) (24:07) Demand response and time of use rates (34:08) Bitcoin mining and energy economics (39:29) Exploring behind the meter arrangements (40:44) Transmission line challenges and innovations (45:51) Dynamic line rating and grid efficiency (50:58) Data centers and energy demand (58:33) Interconnection queue and grid security (01:03:38) Understanding the US grid structure (01:09:46) Wrap…

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

1
The landmines buried in the fine print of Chicago’s new casino deal 45:17

منذ 6 weeks45:17

45:17

In today’s episode Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) examines a Chicago casino investment, first of its kind within the city limits. Patrick reads from his Bits About Money essay (published January 2025) with additional commentary based on recent developments. The discussion reveals how municipal politics, grievances about national and local economic history, and creative financing intersect for ‘a very Chicago gamble.’ – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/the-landmines-buried-in-the-fine-print-of-chicagos-new-casino-deal/ – Sponsors: Vanta | GiveWell | Check Vanta automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at https://vanta.com/complex Support proven charities that deliver measurable results and learn how to maximize your charitable impact with GiveWell . Go to givewell.org (and type in "Complex Systems" at checkout). Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you. – Links: Bits About Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/chicago-casino-investment-offering/ The Story of Vaccinate CA: https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-story-of-vaccinateca/ The Conservative Investor: https://www.patreon.com/theconservativeincomeinvestor Complex Systems interview with Jim McKenzie: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6ocJirzGTStuf0K9ITM21X?si=7HA0RhEOS8GFsA1MlY-EVw – Twitter: @patio11 – Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:43) Chicago has wanted a casino for a long time (04:55) The stock offering (10:29) Chicago’s peculiar definition of minority (14:04) Sponsors: Vanta | Check (16:26) Reading a complex corporate structure (20:29) Is this valuation a gift to investors? (23:20) Capital stack arbitrage (30:04) The casino will not distribute profits, per se (32:45) Tax consequences of this offering (38:34) In conclusion…

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

1
The banking crisis, two years later 1:11:42

منذ 7 weeks1:11:42

1:11:42

Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) revisits his March 2023 essay that explained the dynamics of bank runs and system stress during the banking crisis one month prior. With data from a newly released Federal Reserve paper, he analyzes the true scope of the banking stress - including revelations that 22 banks experienced severe deposit outflows, far more than publicly known at the time. While officials blamed social media for bank runs, data shows institutional players, not retail depositors, drove the events. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/banking-crisis-two-years-later/ – Sponsors: Vanta | GiveWell | Check Vanta automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at https://vanta.com/complex Support proven charities that deliver measurable results and learn how to maximize your charitable impact with GiveWell . Go to givewell.org (and type in "Complex Systems" at checkout). Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you. – Links: Bits About Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/banking-in-very-uncertain-times/ Federal Reserve Report: Tracing Bank Runs in Real Time https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr1104.html Byrne Hobart’s blog The Diff: https://www.thediff.co/ Matt Levine’s blog Money Stuff: https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/money-stuff – Twitter: @patio11 – Timestamps: (00:00) Revisiting the March 2023 essay (01:47) The Fed's study (11:21) Why are banks failing? (14:41) A useful heuristic from bond math (18:05) Sponsors: Vanta | Check (21:00) Maturity transformation (29:54) Sponsor: GiveWell (30:42) Liquidity problems are the proximate cause of bank failures (33:43) Trying to forestall a banking crisis (40:16) Deposit insurance expansion (47:12) Deposit insurance has some legacy issues (52:04) What would happen if my bank were to go into receivership this weekend? (59:46) What should users of the banking system do? (01:04:09) Parting thoughts (01:05:08) Footnote…

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

1
Debanking explained 1:02:38

منذ 8 weeks1:02:38

1:02:38

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) unpacks his 24k word essay Debanking (and Debunking?) originally published on Bits about Money. He discusses the contours of recent debanking claims made by the crypto community, notably Marc Andreessen, Nic Carter, and explains how banking actually works as infrastructure rather than conspiracy. The conversation moves from Operation Chokepoint's documented history to current claims about coordinated action against certain industries, while highlighting how banking access challenges disproportionately affect those who are "relatively less resourced, relatively less educated." – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/debanking-patrick-mckenzie/ – Sponsors: Vanta | GiveWell | Check Vanta automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at https://vanta.com/complex Support proven charities that deliver measurable results and learn how to maximize your charitable impact with GiveWell . Go to givewell.org (and type in "Complex Systems" at checkout). Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you. – Links: Debanking (and Debunking?) https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/debanking-and-debunking/ a16z's Debanking explainer: https://a16zcrypto.com/posts/article/debanking-explained/ – Twitter: @patio11 @eriktorenberg – Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:19) Marc Andreessen's debanking claims (01:02) Understanding debanking and its implications (02:18) Crypto enthusiasts' perspective (07:43) Operation Chokepoint: A historical context (18:09) Sponsors: Vanta | Check (20:23) Operation Chokepoint 2.0: The present day (22:12) The fall of Silvergate Bank (29:55) Crypto advocates and Silvergate Bank (30:45) Sponsor: GiveWell (31:43) Understanding bank account closures (32:35) Bodegas and money services businesses (36:38) Crypto companies and credit risk (47:24) Debanking and its broader implications (49:24) Political ramifications and free speech (59:27) Wrap – Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network.…

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

1
Retrospective on 2024, with Sammy Cottrell 1:05:45

منذ 9 weeks1:05:45

1:05:45

In this special episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) and his EA/producer Sammy Cottrell examine the production function behind Complex Systems, from studio logistics to transcript annotation and guest selection. They reflect on their most memorable episodes while discussing the podcast's core mission of making complex systems more legible and ensuring valuable content remains freely available on the internet. The conversation explores the subjective best episodes from 2024, plans for the year ahead, and how LLMs might transform both the systems they study and how we write about them. – Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/2024-year-in-review-sammy-cottrell/ – Sponsor: Vanta | GiveWell | Check Vanta automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at https://vanta.com/complex Support proven charities that deliver measurable results and learn how to maximize your charitable impact with GiveWell . Go to givewell.org (and type in "Complex Systems" at checkout). Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you. – Links: Ricki Heicklen on Complex Systems: https://open.spotify.com/episode/11kEUYRn4gXZGju232hzcg Casey Handmer on Complex Systems: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0GHegWgLSubYxvATmbWhQu Dan Davies on Complex Systems: https://open.spotify.com/episode/5QKxzgumJXSQuaWCmYAoM9 Zvi Mowshowitz on Complex Systems: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4itdtJFLCpLQNd2g1zTtdD Ross Rheingans-Yoo on Complex Systems: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4GiO0KYqxJNCIdltCyhN6m Patrick’s talk at Manifest 2024 (Manifold): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vfiiXq_bE1c Article mentioned - ‘50K in a Shoebox’: https://www.thecut.com/article/amazon-scam-call-ftc-arrest-warrants.html Copenhagen theory of culpability: https://laneless.substack.com/p/the-copenhagen-interpretation-of-ethics – Twitter: @patio11 @haththerescuer – Timestamps: (01:04) Introducing Sammy (01:37) The offscreen symphony behind Complex Systems (07:19) Production supply chain and transcript philosophy (08:40) LLMs of choice (15:11) Sponsors: Vanta | Check (21:21) Favorite episodes (25:49) Sponsor: GiveWell (27:15) Beyoncé (28:47) More subjectively favorite episodes (32:34) Thesis of Complex Systems (34:07) Canon in operations research (40:51) Sabbatical mode (48:52) Bits about Money and other writing in 2024 (51:22) On paywalls and not implementing them (54:29) LLM plans for 2025 – Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network.…

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

1
Seeing like an outsider, with Yatharth 1:19:31

منذ 10 weeks1:19:31

1:19:31

In this episode, Yatharth (@askyatharth), a graduate student and software engineer, turns the tables to interview Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) about cultural codes, writing, and AI. Patrick shares how his early experiences fighting credit report errors and navigating cross-cultural business environments led to his distinctive approach to understanding and writing about institutional systems. The conversation spans from Patrick's methodical exploration of banking infrastructure to his predictions about LLMs, weaving in personal stories about dating, parenthood, and bridging American and Japanese cultures along the way. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/outside-view-yatharth/ – Sponsor: Check Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you. – Links: Yatharth’s writing https://itsyatharth.substack.com/ Rules for Radicals by Saul Alinsky https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rules_for_Radicals Dave Kasten on Complex Systems https://open.spotify.com/episode/66SSmxK2Kpyef7WUxXxS6w?si=5EZYfZ7gThG8WV7hSs1aFQ Lars Doucet on Complex Systems https://open.spotify.com/episode/2XQjSGCfW6XIu1AFB4oZeR?si=n3C28PymT6m7pPqFb2NE8Q Bits about Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/ – Twitter: @askyatharth @patio11 – Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (01:30) Patrick's early interest in credit cards (03:53) Navigating financial challenges (05:10) Becoming a financial advisor (10:35) Cultural and educational insights (18:57) Sponsor: Check (22:14) Personal stories and reflections (25:48) Parenting and cultural integration (33:26) Writing and storytelling journey (37:35) Translating financial systems for a new audience (39:08) The role of AI in writing and style transfer (40:46) The concept of alpha in writing (44:48) Legal advice and AI's role (52:12) The impact of AI on bureaucratic systems (01:04:22) Reflections on government software and policy (01:13:49) Sabbatical insights and future interests (01:18:52) Wrap – Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse .…

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

1
The future of pandemic preparedness, with Joshua Morrison 1:12:30

منذ 12 weeks1:12:30

1:12:30

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Joshua Morrison, the CEO of advocacy non-profit 1Day Sooner. They discuss what worked and what didn't in Operation Warp Speed's unprecedented push to develop COVID-19 vaccines. The conversation then turns to the future of pandemic preparedness, particularly the promising (and underappreciated) clean air technology. Throughout, Joshua and Patrick illuminate how institutional design choices, political incentives, and technical constraints shape our ability to respond to public health challenges. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/warp-speed-joshua-morrison/ - Sponsors: GiveWell | Check Support proven charities that deliver measurable results and learn how to maximize your charitable impact with GiveWell . Go to givewell.org (and type in "Complex Systems" at checkout). Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you. – Links: 1Day Sooner: https://www.1daysooner.org/ Patrick’s Complex Systems interview with Ross Rheingans-Yoo: https://open.spotify.com/episode/4GiO0KYqxJNCIdltCyhN6m Patrick's Complex Systems interview with Dave Kasten about building VaccinateCA https://open.spotify.com/episode/66SSmxK2Kpyef7WUxXxS6w?si=VsSJMkktQiSGxtn9bFoOWA Takeda's licensing deal with Moderna: https://www.takeda.com/newsroom/newsreleases/2021/takeda-announces-approval-of-modernas-covid-19-vaccine-in-japan/ Bits about Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/ – Twitter: @joshcmorrison @patio11 – Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:56) The role of challenge studies in vaccine development (09:24) Understanding vaccine platforms (18:33) Sponsor: Givewell | Check (19:46) Regulatory system insights and future improvements (20:41) Lessons for our regulatory system (29:55) First doses first debate (37:35) The surprising nature of COVID-19 (39:30) Vaccine hesitancy and public communication (42:08) Political influence on vaccine distribution (58:28) Indoor air quality and disease prevention (01:06:52) Future of public health initiatives (01:12:27) Wrap…

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

1
How we tax property, with Lars Doucet 1:09:36

منذ 12 weeks1:09:36

1:09:36

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Lars Doucet, the author of Land is a Big Deal, discuss how cities determine your property's value and collect taxes. They explore how assessment offices juggle political pressures, statistical models, and technological tools while trying to maintain equity across millions of properties. They also cover why assessment offices are separate from tax collectors, how property value protests actually work, and why your neighbor's house might be assessed differently than yours. – Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/property-assessment-lars-doucet/ – Sponsors: GiveWell | Check Support proven charities that deliver measurable results and learn how to maximize your charitable impact with GiveWell . Go to givewell.org (and type in "Complex Systems" at checkout). Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you. – Links: Lars’ book: https://www.landisabigdeal.com/ Lars’ blog: https://www.fortressofdoors.com/ Bits about Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/ – Twitter @larsiusprime @patio11 – Timestamps (00:00) Introduction (00:23) How property taxes work (Texas Example) (02:45) The political art of avoiding tax rate blame (05:53) Sources of real estate data (08:08) Historical property assessment (11:04) Statutory guidance vs. Actual practice on market value assessment (14:25) Tax rate strategy and sandbagging (15:17) Assessed value vs market value (16:16) Assessment caps and Prop 13 (18:22) Sponsor: GiveWell | Check (20:27) Data collection in the field (22:54) Data collection methods (25:08) Property valuation: Beyond location and correlative factors (26:52) Depreciation of buildings (27:37) Orthodox view of depreciation (30:53) Real estate cultural differences (33:59) Urban redevelopment and land value (36:59) Small business realities and perceptions (46:19) Property tax protests (50:45) Predictive protests (52:19) Accuracy vs equity testing (58:50) Cook county assessor's office (1:01:11) Lars's background (1:05:38) What is GIS? (1:09:52) Wrap…

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

1
Fraud levels are a policy choice 49:21

منذ 14 weeks49:21

49:21

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) offers a reading of his viral essay, "The optimal amount of fraud is non-zero" with extensive live commentary. Patrick examines payment systems, benefits programs, and pandemic-era policies, to uncover how businesses and governments often intentionally accept some level of fraud as a cost of doing business. Reducing fraud to zero would require such restrictive verification that it would severely hamper legitimate commerce and social programs. Using examples from credit card processing to PPP loans, Patrick illustrates how different industries calibrate their tolerance for fraud based on their margins, mission, and societal role. – Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/fraud-choice-patrick-mckenzie – Sponsor: GiveWell | Check Support proven charities that deliver measurable results and learn how to maximize your charitable impact with GiveWell . Go to givewell.org (and type in "Complex Systems" at checkout). Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you. – Links: Bits about Money, "The optimal amount of fraud is non-zero" https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/optimal-amount-of-fraud/ Bits about Money, "The fraud supply chain" https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/archive/the-fraud-supply-chain/ Dan Davies on Complex Systems https://open.spotify.com/episode/5QKxzgumJXSQuaWCmYAoM9?si=AWkgvWEBSymrQNqpehg5tQ – Twitter: @patio11 - Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:32) Origins of the essay and Dan Davies' influence (02:16) Fraud is a policy choice (04:56) The unique nature of fraud enforcement (07:54) Who pays for payment fraud? (12:55) Fraud as a necessary business expense (21:13) Sponsors: GiveWell & Check (27:43) Credit reports (29:19) Anti fraud loops used in online commerce (35:38) Different business tolerances for fraud (37:20) High vs low margin fraud strategies (41:40) Fraud in Benefit Systems and Pandemic Programs (43:29) Taxes (45:38) Fraud as an intended component (51:55) Wrap…

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

1
AI, poker, and mind games, with Max Chiswick 55:00

منذ 16 weeks55:00

55:00

Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Max Chiswick, a former professional poker player turned AI educator, to explore how poker intersects with decision making. They discuss how the online poker boom created unprecedented opportunities to study decision-making at scale and how computational advances have transformed both the game's theory and practice. They dig into how poker serves as a laboratory for studying decision-making under uncertainty, pattern recognition, and opponent modeling, while also examining the sometimes problematic incentives that emerge in both online gambling and AI development. – Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/ai-poker-max-chiswick/ – Sponsor: Check Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you. – Links: Max's website: https://maxchiswick.com/ Max's startup for AI and Game Strategy: https://overbet.ai/ The Expected Value Foundation & poker camp course: https://expectedvalue.org/ Patrick's Bits about Money: https://www.bitsaboutmoney.com/ – Twitter: @chisness @patio11 - Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:26) Max's background and journey into poker (03:45) The credit card rewards game tangent (06:12) Why poker matters: reasoning and decision-making (07:49) The problem areas in the poker AI space (09:38) Poker as an assistive technology for reasoning (10:59) Online poker history (16:14) Understanding multitabling (21:14) Casino economics and gambling regulation (22:55) Sponsor: Check (26:32) PokerStars VIP program and professional incentives (29:47) Playing a million hands in a month (37:26) AI poker history and counterfactual regret minimization (43:35) Poker complexity (45:01) The impact of solvers on modern poker (45:52) Understanding poker game theory and decision trees (49:26) Recent developments in poker AI education (50:27) Teaching programmers to build poker bots (53:05) Wrap – Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network, the network behind Econ 102 with Noah Smith, The Riff with Byrne Hobart, and Turpentine VC. Turpentine also has a social network for top tech founders: https://www.turpentinenetwork.com/…

Complex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

1
Boom, busts, and long term progress with Byrne Hobart 1:42:59

منذ 17 weeks1:42:59

1:42:59

By popular demand, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Byrne Hobart for a 3rd conversation to discuss Byrne’s book "Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation." They explore how periods of irrational market enthusiasm often create lasting value despite their painful endings. Using examples from the 1990s fiber optic boom that enabled modern streaming to today’s AI investment surge, they examine how even when investment manias end badly, they frequently pull forward crucial technological development that benefits society long-term. Byrne and Patrick weave through historical cases like Bell Labs to present day examples in crypto and energy infrastructure, revealing hidden cycles where speculative excess can drive genuine innovation. – Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/episodes/boom-busts-and-long-term-progress-with-byrne-hobart-2/ – Sponsor: Check Check is the leading payroll infrastructure provider and pioneer of embedded payroll. Check makes it easy for any SaaS platform to build a payroll business, and already powers 60+ popular platforms. Head to checkhq.com/complex and tell them patio11 sent you. – Links: Order Byrne Hobart’s book Boom: Bubbles and the End of Stagnation on Stripe Press / Bookshop / Amazon here: https://press.stripe.com/boom The Diff https://diff.substack.com Capital Gains https://capitalgains.thediff.co/ The Reckoning by David Halberstam: https://www.amazon.com/Reckoning-David-Halberstam/dp/0380721473 Austin Vernon on Fracking, Complex Systems Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0YDV1XyjUCM2RtuTcBGYH9?si=CDrPD3nNSP-MUV60qffglg – Twitter: @byrnehobart @patio11 - Timestamps: (00:00) Intro (00:25) Discussing the book: Boom, Bubbles, and the End of Stagnation (01:08) Economic growth and productivity (04:42) Technological advancements and corporate R&D (07:31) The role of government and private sector (13:42) Sponsor: Check (14:57) Economic history and industrial evolution (20:12) Japanese industrial planning and efficiency (27:16) The dot-com boom and fiber optic investment (31:21) Bondholders vs. equity investors: A comparative analysis (32:32) Google’s strategic fiber investments (32:56) The evolution of online video and YouTube’s rise (35:22) The dot-com bubble and its aftermath (44:06) The housing bubble (49:39) Financial manias and reflexivity (52:23) The SaaS ecosystem and startup growth (54:58) Stripe and the evolution of online payments (01:00:22) Crypto (01:04:58) The value of currency and crypto (01:06:36) Exchange tokens and financial models (01:08:55) Crypto’s impact on financial systems (01:10:41) The evolution of banking technology (01:13:18) Crypto regulations and financial freedom (01:17:28) Smart contracts and financial innovation (01:26:47) The role of AI in technological advancements (01:29:18) The future of energy: Geothermal and fracking (01:41:39) The journey of writing ‘Boom’ (01:42:57) Wrap…

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The Let Them Theory: A Life-Changing Tool That Millions of People Can't Stop Talking About

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مشابه لـComplex Systems with Patrick McKenzie (patio11)

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