AI Energy Forecasting: How Machine Learning is Transforming the Grid

Clean Power Hour

#319

The modern power grid faces an existential challenge: integrating massive amounts of renewable energy while keeping the lights on. Sean Kelly, CEO and Founder of Amperon, explains how artificial intelligence and machine learning are replacing outdated forecasting methods to predict energy supply and demand with precision. This conversation explores battery optimization, demand response programs, and why traditional grid models no longer work in a world of extreme weather and distributed generation.

Sean Kelly leads Amperon, a company providing AI-driven energy forecasting platforms for grid operators, battery owners, and energy traders. With nearly 20 years of experience in energy trading and risk management, Kelly has worked for major energy firms such as Tenaska, Lehman, EDF, and E.ON, where he led significant trading desk developments and transitions, including bringing nuclear power plants into new markets.

Key Discussion Points:

• Traditional forecasting models look backward. AI models look forward and learn in real time, adapting to grid changes as they happen.
• Battery storage is exploding. ERCOT expects 40% more storage in the next 5 years. Texas batteries run 1-2 hours, California runs 4-hour batteries, and companies like Form Energy are developing 100+ hour systems.
• The critical hours are 6pm to 9pm. When solar goes down at sunset and wind drops simultaneously, batteries become essential. Amperon's platform tells operators exactly when to charge and discharge for maximum profit.
• The grid needs 6 terawatt hours of energy storage but we're only one-tenth of the way there. Developers should build all projects battery-ready or include storage today.
• Demand response works like insurance. Grid operators pay large customers to reduce load during peak times. Penalties are severe for non-compliance, ensuring the system works when needed.
• Forecasting is no longer optional. Sean calls it "the operating system of the modern grid." Historical averages won't keep the lights on anymore.
• Data centers and large industrial loads play a critical role in grid flexibility, backing down from 20 megawatts to 10 megawatts when grid operators need relief.

Connect with Sean Kelly

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sean-kelly-0792626/

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