Property Special: Retail’s return from the dead and what to expect from its recovery

Capital Economics Weekly Briefing

Reports of retail’s death have been exaggerated. After a long and painful adjustment, the retail’s potential to deliver decent returns means our commercial real estate team now thinks it’ll be the second best performer among the major sectors over our forecast horizon in both the US and UK.

CRE Chief Economist Kiran Raichura and Matt Pointon, our UK CRE lead, are on this special property-themed episode of The Weekly Briefing to talk to David Wilder about our forecasts and address some of the big issues around retail’s recovery, including:

• How this recovery will compare to the sector’s performance in the early 2000s;
• What Macy’s store closures announcement suggests about the performance of shopping malls;
• What a slowing US economy could mean for retail returns;
• How the UK’s retail sector stacks up;
• What proposals to pedestrianise London’s Oxford Street suggests about the UK outlook.

Analysis referenced in this episode:

US: Time to go shopping for retail assets

UK: Retail investment will continue to lead the recovery
UK Q4 Outlook: Look to beds, sheds and retail for best returns