USDA makes large adjustments in final 2024 crop numbers | Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield Ag News

This week Will and Ben look at USDA's revamped production and supply numbers for 2024 crops.

Market recap (changes on week as of Monday's close):

» March 2025 corn up $.13 at $4.70

» December 2025 corn up $.05 at $4.50

» March 2025 soybeans up $.28 at $10.25

» November 2025 soybeans up $.18 at $10.31

» March soybean oil up 5.25 cents at 45.53 cents/lb

» March soybean meal down $9.00 at $298.30/short ton

» March wheat down $.10 at $5.30

» July 2025 wheat down $.07 at $5.54

» March 2025 cotton down 1.67 cents at 67.01 cents/lb

» December 2025 cotton down 1.04 at 68.86 cents/lb

» October WTI Crude Oil up 2.93 at $75.75/barrel

Weekly highlights:

There was lots of economic news this week- headlined by the December jobs and wage reports. The US economy added 256,000 jobs in December- well above expectations of 155,000 jobs. US unemployment ticked lower to 4.1% along with both a decrease in the number of layoffs on the month and the median length of unemployment. These data suggest the FED may slow interest rate cuts.

US energy stocks were mixed with US crude oil stocks down 40.3 million gallons but a surprisingly large build to gasoline and distillate stocks of 266 and 255 million gallons, respectively. Implied gasoline demand was up 4% week over week.

US ethanol production decreased to 324 million gallons for the week ending December January 3, but up from 312 million gallons last year and a five-year average of 294- ethanol stocks increased 21 million gallons.

USDA lowered their estimate of 2024 corn and soybean yields to 179.3 and 50.7 bushels/acre, respectively- both below the most bullish pre-report estimates. With changes to harvested acreage- 2024 production for both crops came in below all estimates.

US winter wheat seedings came in above the 2023 by 725,000 acres when the trade was expecting a small decrease. The acreage total was within the range of expectations. Wheat acreage was up year over year for all three wheat classes.

It was a bearish week for grain and oilseed export inspections. US corn, soybean and wheat sales of 17.5, 10.6 and 4.1 million bushels were all the lowest of the marketing year to date and below all pre-report expectations.

Topics:

» Market recap

» USDA numbers provide bullish push

» Watch upcoming soybean crush

» Reports to watch

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