#168-Mercedes gives up on AVs; AV design; AV timelines

Autonomous Cars with Marc Hoag

Today: Mercedes-Benz announces they're giving up on AVs; we talk AV design and what it really means; and, we unpack the true meaning of AV timelines. All this, right now....

1. Mercedes-Benz gives up on AVs

In a bizarre bit of PR non-hype, Mercedes-Benz announced to the world that they are giving up on AVs; this includes their (long since forgotten) partnership with BMW in which the Bavarian heavyweights were meant to co-produce AV software together, never mind the fact that neither company possesses such expertise. What's curious about this announcement is that it raises the question of what happens to Mercedes' ongoing development and improvement of their existing ADAS systems. Also, I make a fairly bold prediction, namely, that Mercedes will acquire an AV company in the next one to three years.

2. AV design

The question of AV design often misses the bigger picture question: it's not so much a matter of how will today's passenger vehicles look, but rather, how will existing automobile companies' product lines change, and by change, I mean, how will they grow. Companies will soon branch out into both human-driven and autonomous vehicles in the same way they currently have, say, passenger vehicles and camper vans.

3. AV timelines

In a recent AV roundtable-type discussion in which I participated, 2038 was pegged as "the year" that Level 5 AVs become a thing. And while I agree with that prediction -- I've often said that L5 vehicles should start to become a part of our lives in the mid- to late-30s -- I think this binary view of AV timelines sort of misses the point, i.e., it misses the crucially important interim years for businesses to ramp up in preparation for an AV future, not least of all, insurance companies.