043 - Ukraine is Dividing the Gulf States from the West

Arab Tyrant Manual Podcast

As Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused global energy prices to spike, the US looked to its traditional gulf partners to increase supply. However, Mohamed bin Zayed and Mohamed bin Salman chose not to - refusing President Joe Biden's calls and even raising prices, whilst making overt gestures of support for Putin.

In this episode, Iyad El-Baghdadi and Ahmed Gatnash discuss how the war in Ukraine has pushed a wedge between the US and its traditionally-close gulf allies, and what this means for the future of the Middle East.

Episode timetags:

02:40 - The economic context of Russia's invasion of Ukraine

04:40 - Alternative sources of energy & autocracies

08:00 - The gulf oil producers are acting differently

09:30 - Why Saudi's reaction is a bad idea

12:30 - Changing dictatorships through economic engagement

14:00 - Europe's reaction to war & the dictators' underestimations

18:20 - The shift in relationships from unconditional to transactional

21:00 - MBS taking political changes personally

23:55 - The Atlantic interview, disinformation, and MBS' continued self-owns

27:30 - US security guarantee isn't in doubt, but it's not enough

33:25 - The failure of dictatorship as a management system

38:10 - Is Saudi Arabia maximising profit for its national budget?

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