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المحتوى المقدم من Al Ahly Pharos. يتم تحميل جميع محتويات البودكاست بما في ذلك الحلقات والرسومات وأوصاف البودكاست وتقديمها مباشرة بواسطة Al Ahly Pharos أو شريك منصة البودكاست الخاص بهم. إذا كنت تعتقد أن شخصًا ما يستخدم عملك المحمي بحقوق الطبع والنشر دون إذنك، فيمكنك اتباع العملية الموضحة هنا https://ar.player.fm/legal.
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Technical Analysis
Manage episode 463352632 series 2987212
المحتوى المقدم من Al Ahly Pharos. يتم تحميل جميع محتويات البودكاست بما في ذلك الحلقات والرسومات وأوصاف البودكاست وتقديمها مباشرة بواسطة Al Ahly Pharos أو شريك منصة البودكاست الخاص بهم. إذا كنت تعتقد أن شخصًا ما يستخدم عملك المحمي بحقوق الطبع والنشر دون إذنك، فيمكنك اتباع العملية الموضحة هنا https://ar.player.fm/legal.
- Market Overview
- AMOC
- GBCO
- ORAS
- EGAS
Prepared by: Mayada Amin, CETA, CFTe
1620 حلقات
Manage episode 463352632 series 2987212
المحتوى المقدم من Al Ahly Pharos. يتم تحميل جميع محتويات البودكاست بما في ذلك الحلقات والرسومات وأوصاف البودكاست وتقديمها مباشرة بواسطة Al Ahly Pharos أو شريك منصة البودكاست الخاص بهم. إذا كنت تعتقد أن شخصًا ما يستخدم عملك المحمي بحقوق الطبع والنشر دون إذنك، فيمكنك اتباع العملية الموضحة هنا https://ar.player.fm/legal.
- Market Overview
- AMOC
- GBCO
- ORAS
- EGAS
Prepared by: Mayada Amin, CETA, CFTe
1620 حلقات
كل الحلقات
×IMF boss confirmed that the Fund will continue to support the Egyptian economy as it carries out reforms. The government will pay out USD1 billion of arrears owed to foreign energy companies early next month. The Emirati company Dana Gas will resume its drilling activities in Egypt starting next March, after receiving part of its overdue dues from the Egyptian Petroleum Authority. BP kicked off production from the second development phase of its Raven natural gas field in its North Alexandria offshore concession. The Arab Organization for Industrialization is in talks with Emirati investors to set up three new factories in Egypt. The planned facilities will specialize in car tires, MDF wood from palm tree fronds, and advanced defense manufacturing. A number of tax facilities regarding SMEs, simplifying tax procedures, and settling disputes will take effect in March. EAST released outstanding 1H24/25 financial results. 1H24/25 net profit recorded EGP5,382 million (+85.8% YoY). EAST is currently trading at FY24/25f P/E of 6.8x and EV/EBITDA of 6.1x. AMOC released 2Q24/25 full financial results. Net profit dropped 35% YoY (-68% QoQ) to EGP148 million. Net profit declined 5% YoY to EGP610 million in 1H24/25. AMOC is currently trading at a FY24/25e PE of 4.3x and EV/EBITDA of 2.1x. MASR achieved strong FY24 sales of EGP46.1 billion, up 54.2% y/y, implying 4Q24 sales of EGP13.4 billion, down 10.8% y/y and up 13.7% q/q. EGAL is studying establishing a new 600k ton aluminum plant with no further details announced. SWDY's Chairman expects the company to start supplying building materials to Ras Al Hekma project in North Coast in two months. SWDY is also eyeing an entrance into Brazil and India as part of its expansion plan. CLHO announced the execution of an agreement to extend Cleopatra October (Haven) Hospital through a Build-to-Suit lease to add approximately 200 beds to the existing hospital. The expansion is expected to increase the hospital’s total capacity to up to 300 beds by 2026. CIRA Education will submit a mandatory tender offer (MTO) to up its stake in Cairo for Educational services (CAED) to up to 90% from the current 69.4%. CIRA is looking to acquirean additional 20.6% of its subsidiary at an initial share price of EGP30. Weekly Commodities Update…
- Market Overview - ABUK - ORHD - ETEL - ADIB - ORAS - Prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe
Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides reconfirmed that he will sign “the first agreements for the commercialization of natural gas from deposits in the Republic of Cyprus” tomorrow. Egypt’s unemployment rate fell to 6.4% in 4Q 2024, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous quarter, according to data from state statistics agency Capmas. Efforts to speed up customs clearance got the cabinet thumbs up, with a plan from the finance and investment ministries to improve the process of exporting and importing goods being passed in its bid to cut customs clearance times down from eight days to just two. A power purchase agreement between Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power and the Egyptian Electricity Transmission Company was approved to allow energy supplies from wind energy projects totaling 2 GW to be fed into the national grid. A plan to simplify private healthcare regulation detailed in a draft law was passed, which is designed to make it easier to license new private healthcare facilities, disentangle administration from ownership, and greenlight foreign players wanting to open up shop in the country. Stamp tax amendments set to replace the planned capital gains tax will be issued within days, Deputy Finance Minister for Tax Policies Sherif El Kilani said. The government intends to reformulate the criteria for granting the golden license, in addition to discussing the determinants and controls for establishing public free zones, in order to govern the procedures related to all industrial activities and projects, Minister Kamel EL-wazir said. ABUK released 2Q24/25 full financial statements with net profit surging to EGP3.2 billion in 2Q24/25 (+59% YoY, +146% QoQ), with a NPM of 47.7% in 2Q24/25 (+1pps YoY, +12pps QoQ), further supported by revenue growth as well as EGP897.4 million of forex gains recorded in the quarter. This brings 1H24/25 bottom line to EGP4.4 billion (+12% YoY) with a NPM of 43.4% (-3pps YoY). ABUK is currently trading at FY24/25f PE of 4.8x. CANA 4Q24 bottom line recorded a strong EGP2,559 million (+95% q/q, +173% y/y), bringing FY24 net profit to EGP5,681 million (+148% y/y, 49% higher than Al Ahly Pharos Estimates). We reiterate our Overweight recommendation of CANA on an updated FV of EGP35.00/share up from EGP 23.08/share. CANA is currently trading at 2.1x P/E 2025 and 0.4x P/B 2025. BoD proposed distribution of 0.54 bonus share for every outstanding share. BTFH aims to launch an app specializing in data analytics in 2025. EMFD inked a strategic partnership agreement with Midar Investment to set up the EGP100 bn New Mivida residential project in New Cairo.…
- Market Overview - COMI - HRHO - CIEB - ETEL - EMFD - PHAR prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe
The government is currently working on preparing the budget for FY 2025-26, all while preparing a comprehensive three-year budget with a financial ceiling that can only be exceeded in exceptional cases, one of the sources said. Government entities will also submit another budget covering FY 2026-27 to FY 2029-30. Ministries will be given cabinet-approved financial ceilings that can’t be exceeded. The Public Government Budget is set to rise to somewhere in the vicinity of EGP8 tn in the fiscal year 2025-2026, up from EGP6.6 tn in the current fiscal year, as the government looks to incorporate additional state economic bodies’ budgets into the budget, a government source told local press. The budget pencils in growth of around 5-5.5%, reduced public debt, and a primary surplus amounting to approximately 4% of GDP. The government is also working on reducing the amount of funds allocated for fuel subsidies from the current fiscal year’s EGP150 bn. The government is planning to further cut down public investments and is set to, instead, rely on self-financing through various entities and limit spending to highly urgent projects or those already nearing completion, the sources said. The Finance Ministry is looking to launch a new public debt policy document by the end of March. Phase two of the new capital’s development will be offered to a French investment consortium in March. The Minister of Finance revealed the features of the proposed package of reforms of the customs system through 19 proceduresز CIEB released 4Q24 consolidated bottom line of EGP1,944 million (+4% q/q, +44% y/y ), bringing FY24 bottom line to EGP8,030 million (+55% y/y and perfectly in line with Al Ahly Pharos estimate of EGP8,039 million). CIEB is currently trading at P/E25 of 3.1x (based on bottom line post minority and appropriations) and P/B25 of 0.9x. CIEB's BoD proposed cash dividend distribution of EGP3.82/share, implying a payout ratio of 60% and DY of 20%, pending the CBE and AGM approvals. CCAP reported a consolidated net profit after minority interest of EGP114.5 million in 3Q24 (-94% YoY, -108% QoQ). The company is currently trading at FY25e P/E of 1.4x and EV/EBITDA of 4.8x. Minister of Petroleum appointed Maged Mostafa El Kordy as acting chairman and managing director for AMOC . State-owned El Nasr for Fertilizers & Chemical Industries (Semadco) is gearing up to set up a wind farm and solar power stations with a combined capacity of 500 MW to power its new green ammonia factory in Suez, according to local media. FWRY has acquired a majority stake in Code Zone, a manager of local hospitals and medical institutions, as part of its strategy to invest in complementary startups. The company is also in negotiations with Gulf firms to expand its presence in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. In the first quarter, Fawry plans to launch new investment services focused on the stock market and gold, including various investment funds. Additionally, the company is considering applying for a digital bank license and has introduced Fawry Business, a platform designed to assist local companies with digital transformation, offering payment management, e-receipts, SME loans, and salary management solutions. EFIH and its sister company eHealth will work together to link the Universal Health Insurance System with social protection systems under an MoU they inked with the Social Solidarity Ministry and the Universal Health Insurance Authority (UHIA). ARCC signed a EUR25 million loan agreement with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) to fund energy efficiency upgrades and expand alternative fuel use.…
- Market Overview - ETEL - CIEB - ISPH - RMDA - HRHO - prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFT
*Key news articles for today* Egypt plans to “present a comprehensive vision for the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip in a manner that ensures the Palestinian people remain in their homeland and aligns with their legitimate and legal rights. Two consortiums of international energy players are set to invest a total of USD130 million over the next five to eight years in drilling 10 oil and gas exploration wells in East Port Said and the Western Desert. US oil producer Apache is set to kick off a USD60 million drilling program in its Western Desert blocks in March as it looks to ramp up natural gas production by a daily 80 million cubic feet. The project is reportedly part of a wider five-year plan by the company to invest USD3.5 billion in exploration, research, and production in the Western Desert. Spanish medical consultancy WHM is looking into setting up a USD1.8 billion healthcare data center in Egypt through a consortium of investors and in partnership with the CIT Ministry. The Suez Canal’s EGP9 billion southern expansion has been completed. The 10 km expansion will improve navigation through the canal by 28%. Egypt is moving forward with plans to set up two industrial zones in Libya with investments of USD250 million, with 22 local players have already expressed interest in setting up shop in the new zones and more are expected to follow in their footsteps. The government plans to increase domestic wheat purchases from farmers by around 11% y-o-y to 4 million tons during the harvest season starting mid-April. The House of Representatives approved the agreement concluded between the Egyptian government and the French Development Agency, providing a loan worth EUR70 million and a grant of EUR800k for the project to establish the Al-Rubiki - 10th of Ramadan – Belbeis railway. Sky Tower for Real Estate Development, in which EMFD holds a stake, signed a partnership agreement with Golden Coast for Hotels, Resorts, and Entertainment Projects to develop a fully-integrated tourism project on the Red Sea. BTFH signed a share purchase agreement to acquire a majority stake in Baobab Group. FRA issued new regulations on insurance companies' investments, giving them sixmonths to meet the new requirements. • They will need to invest at least 5% of their free funds in open-ended funds that invest in EGX-listed equities. • They will also invest at least 2.5% of their paid-up capital in open-ended funds that invest in EGX-listed stocks. • New investments cannot exceed 30% of their total funds allocated for investment. • Personal insurance companies can invest up to 10% of their investment-allocated funds in real estate investment funds.…
- Market Overview
Annual urban inflation recorded 24.0% in January 2025 compared with 24.1% in December 2024. Annual core inflation, computed by the CBE, recorded 22.6% in January 2025 compared with 23.2% in December 2024. Spanish hospitality group Barceló is in negotiations to acquire and participate in several projects in Egypt, CEO Raúl González said in a meeting with Investment Minister Hassan El Khatib during his time in Spain, according to a statement. Egypt’s foreign debt inched up 1.5% q-o-q to USD 155.2 bn during the first quarter of the current fiscal year, up from the USD 152.9 bn recorded at the end of FY 2023-24, according to data from the Central Bank of Egypt. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the IMF, revealed that the Executive Board is expected to approve the disbursement of additional financing to Egypt worth USD 1.3 billion, within the Resilience and Sustainability Program, to enhance the Egyptian economy’s ability to confront shocks. The Constitutional and Legislative Affairs Committee of the House of Representatives approved yesterday an agreement for a soft loan worth CNY 1.5 billion, to implement the third phase of the railway project - Tenth of Ramadan Mitsubishi Corporation is looking into opportunities to produce its models in Egypt in the coming period. The Russian company Lukoil has agreed with the Ministry of Petroleum and the South Valley Holding Company to obtain the rights to exploit the “South Valley El-Sahl” petroleum concession west of the Gulf of Suez. HRHO announces appointing Khaled Al-Suwailem as their new Chairman for its Saudi subsidiary. BTFH 's subsidiary, Beltone Leasing and Factoring signed a EGP4 bn syndicated leasing term sheet with Al Qalaa Al Hamraa to fund the construction of Al Ahly Club's stadium and sports city in Sheikh Zayed. DCHC stated in an EGX release that it wants to raise its authorized capital to EGP 1.5 billion, up from EGP 400 million, and increase its issued and paid-up capital to EGP 1.1 billion, up from EGP 200 million. Suez Canal Authority head Osama Rabie expects traffic in the suez canal to gradually normalize by late March and fully recover by mid-year, provided that the ceasefire in Gaza holds and the second phase of the truce goes through. NIPH submitted a request to the EGX for increasing its issued and paid-up capital from EGP101 million to EGP 300 million, with an increase of EGP198.75 million, to be distributed on 19.87 million shares with a par value of EGP10/share.…
- Market Overview - TAQA - CCAP - OIH - HRHO - ELKA - prepared by : Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe
The National Wages Council decided to raise the minimum wage for private sector workers to EGP7k a month, up from EGP6k, starting March. The Council also set the value of the bonus granted to employees at no less than 3% of their social insurance wage with a floor of EGP250 per month. Hong Kong-listed United Energy Group (UEG) inked a sale and purchase agreement to fully acquire Apex's upstream oil and gas exploration and production operations in Egypt for an undisclosed sum. A consortium of Infinity Power, Hassan Allam Utilities, and the UAE’s Masdar secured a 20 sq km land plot in New Valley Governorate’s Dakhla Oasis for their 900 MW solar power plant and its accompanying battery storage. South Sinai is looking to pull in EGP500-600 billion in industrial investments. Both foreign and local investors will be offered plots to encourage investment. The Investment Authority is close to issuing a comprehensive decision which includes updating the financial and accounting standards and procedures for companies evaluation, including mergers, divisions, and amending the companies' financial structures, and updating the methods of evaluating in-kind shares. The Egyptian government is close to concluding negotiations with the European Union and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) to obtain financing of up to EUR200 million to launch a new power line, to transmit electricity produced from wind energy projects in Gebel El Zeit, which will take a year to implement. ADIB (FV: EGP85.00, OW) recorded a strong 4Q24 consolidated bottom line post minority of EGP2,207 million (-1% q/q, +97% y/y), bringing FY24 bottom line post minority to EGP9,009 million (+93% y/y and 6% higher than Al Ahly Pharos estimate). Board of Directors proposed to increase the bank’s paid-in capital from EGP6 billion to EGP12 billion, through the distribution of one share for each original share before the increase, deducted from FY24 net profit. The bank is currently trading at P/E25 2.4x. OCDI reported strong FY24 sales of EGP50.3 billion, up 66.2% y/y, implying 4Q24 sales of EGP10.5 billion, up 0.5% y/y and down 63.5% q/q. Sales performance in FY24 was driven by the launch of Ogami on the North Coast, which contributed sales of EGP24.5 billion. OCDI plans to open five new hotels offering a total of 550 rooms, is studying acquiring land plots of no less than 300 feddans in East and West Cairo, and is looking into expanding into education. U.S. President said that he will introduce new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports into the U.S., on top of existing metals duties. Egypt steel production increased 12.3% YoY to 9.04 million tons in 2024, while steel sales inched up 6.1% YoY to 7.0 million tons throughout the year. Egyptian cement manufacturers received export orders of 1 million tons this month, driven by the reconstruction of neighboring countries, primarily Libya, Syria, and Iraq. Libyan market captures more than 50% of the received orders. Badr City’s medical city Capital Med is planning to make its EGX debut through a direct listing in 1H25. The company will then move forward with a capital increase to fund the construction of the new phase of the medical city. Al Ahly Pharos will act as the financial advisor and offering manager for the listing. The Suez Canal Economic Zone signed a contract with ETRS and Nafith International to develop a smart truck yard in West Port Said Port at an investment cost of EGP250 million. Weekly Commodities Update Last Price | WoW Change, % Brent, USD/bbl | 74.7 | -2.7% Diesel-HSFO Spread, USD/ton | 259.2 | -1.6% Egypt Urea, USD/ton | 447.5 | 3.2% Polyethylene, USD/ton | 940.0 | 0.0% Polypropylene, USD/ton | 957.5 | 0.0% Iron Ore 65%, USD/ton | 123.3 Steel/Iron Ore Spreads, USD/ton | 375.0 | -1…
- Market Overview - ABUK - EAST - JUFO - HRHO - ADIB - prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe
The IMF’s Executive Board is to sign off on Egypt’s fourth review “in the coming weeks,” IMF Communications Director Julie Kozack said in a briefing to the press. The meeting will also see the board look into a set of fresh funds under the IMF’s Resilience and Sustainability Facility. BP’s recent discovery at its King Mariout offshore concession could hold up to 4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, according to early estimates cited by two unnamed government officials that spoke to Asharq Business. The Industry Ministry has allocated 30 million sqm in Ras El Hekma for an industrial zone, Industry Ministry Kamel El Wazir said, adding that the Ministry is working on setting up three other zones across the country, in Borg El Arab, New Alamein, and Matrouh. The government has also broken ground on the Ras El Hekma airport. According to the Minister of Finance, Egypt will launch a customs facilitation package within weeks to increase competitiveness and ease of goods release, in addition to launching a facilitation package related to real estate tax before the end of this year. Trade balance deficit rose 0.5% y/y to USD3.7 billion in November 2024. The EGX and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) are working together on a project to boost market liquidity in the EGX. The National Wages Council will meet later today to discuss the minimum wage for the private sector. The Finance Ministry is considering issuing a bookkeeping scheme to account for the FX rate difference between the official and parallel markets for profit earned before the Central Bank of Egypt liberalized the exchange rate in March 2024, with the Ministry currently preparing tax budgets for the upcoming corporate tax filing season, which ends on 30 April. COMI has cut interest rates on its local currency, high-yield CDs by 3 percentage points. Emirati and Kuwaiti financial institutions have begun due diligence to acquire at least 60% of Banque du Caire (BdC). The Financial Regulatory Authority (FRA) has raised the borrowing limit for micro enterprises by 10% to EGP266k. ORAS's Orascom Industrial Parks is setting up a 3.5 million sqm industrial zone in Ain Sokhna with projected investments of EGP7 billion over the next ten years. Egypt plans to increase its aluminum production by 200k tons annually within three years, bringing total production to 510k tons, according to Minister of Public Enterprises. This expansion aims to meet domestic market needs and export the surplus. The Minister added that a new project is underway with the private sector to establish a new aluminum plant with modern furnaces, with a production capacity of 600k tons per year. The Ministry of Public Enterprises is developing EGCH with investments of USD400 million within three years. The development will include the production of nitrates, which will add value to the products. French pharma giant Servier’s Egypt arm has inaugurated a new packaging and filling line at its 6th of October facility. With this expansion, Servier’s total investments in Egypt reaches EGP1.6 billion.…
- Market Overview - SKPC - COMI - OCDI - JUFO - ETEL -prepared by: Mayada Amin- CETA, CFTe
The new social protection package will be announced “within days,” Prime Minister said. The package of minimum wage hikes and pension increases will come into effect starting the next fiscal year. Net foreign reserves inched up to USD47.3 billion at the end of January 2025, marking a USD156 million increase from December. Net foreign assets in Egypt’s banking sector reached USD5.23 billion in December, down 12.2% from USD5.96 billion in November. The decline was driven by a widening deficit in the net foreign assets of commercial banks, which widened to USD6.4 billion in December, compared to USD5.8 billion in November. Energy giant BP has made a fresh discovery off the North Coast in its King Mariout offshore concession, with initial reports suggesting the site could yield both gas and oil. Cabinet approved five concession agreements that will see no less than USD225.3 million invested to drill at least 40 wells in areas including the Eastern and Western Deserts. US energy giant ExxonMobil is reportedly planning to dig two new exploratory wells in its Cairo and Masry offshore concessions in 1Q26, with an initial investment of USD240 million, an unnamed government official said. Egypt is reportedly planning to increase crude oil production by 18% y-o-y by the end of the current fiscal year, an unnamed government official told Al Arabiya. Demand for gold bars and coins in Egypt fell 21% y-o-y in 2024, hitting 24 tons, according to the World Gold Council’s gold demand trend report for last year. The government is looking to see exports growing at an annual rate of 15-20% to achieve a trade surplus before 2030, Madbouly said, pointing to agriculture exports, which hit a record USD10.6 billion last year. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) the Finance Ministry inked a cooperation agreement that will see them set up a EUR10 million fund — dubbed the Egypt Account — to finance feasibility studies and advisory services for projects being set up under the public-private partnership model. The Islamic Corporation for the Development of the Private Sector (ICD), the private sector arm of the Islamic Development Bank, signed Egypt’s work plan for 2025, under which it will provide USD100 million in funds to support private sector projects in the country. The World Bank is preparing for the second phase of Egypt’s budget support program to be paid during this year, after the completion of the first phase in the middle of last year, worth USD500 million, according to the World Bank’s regional director, adding that the total value of the program is USD3 billion, as part of a package to support Egypt announced by the World Bank in March 2024 worth USD6 billion, half of which is allocated to support the general budget and the other half to support the private sector. CIEB 4Q24 consolidated bottom line recorded EGP1,944 million (+4% q/q, +44% y/y), bringing FY24 bottom line to EGP8,030 million (+55% y/y, and perfectly in line with Al Ahly Pharos estimate of EGP8,039 million). CIEB is currently trading at P/E25 of 3.1x (based on bottom line post minority and appropriations) and P/B25 of 0.9x. SWDY opened a EGP2 billion cable factory at its subsidiary Elsewedy Industrial Development’s Industrial zone in the Tenth of Ramadan. The factory will have a production capacity of 4 million km of fiber-optic cables and 200k km of copper communication cables. EGCH decided to hold an auction to sell unutilized land plots in Aswan with total area of around 35k sqm. According to AMIC, auto sales increased by 24.6% YoY and 19.7% MoM to reach 13k vehicles in December. EGTS ’s court date for the 20.0 million sqm third phase Sahl Hasheesh land plot lawsuit is postponed to 4 March 2025.…
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