Lead-Lag Live podcast

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40 subscribers

تمت الإضافة منذ قبل three أعوام

المحتوى المقدم من Michael A. Gayed, CFA, Michael A. Gayed, and CFA. يتم تحميل جميع محتويات البودكاست بما في ذلك الحلقات والرسومات وأوصاف البودكاست وتقديمها مباشرة بواسطة Michael A. Gayed, CFA, Michael A. Gayed, and CFA أو شريك منصة البودكاست الخاص بهم. إذا كنت تعتقد أن شخصًا ما يستخدم عملك المحمي بحقوق الطبع والنشر دون إذنك، فيمكنك اتباع العملية الموضحة هنا https://ar.player.fm/legal.

The Vanished

1
Fifth Avenue: The Last Walk of Dorothy Arnold 6:43

منذ 20 يومًا6:43

التشغيل لاحقا

قوائم

إعجاب

احب

6:43

In 1910, Dorothy Arnold—a wealthy, educated socialite from New York City—left her home for a shopping trip and never returned.

Lead-Lag Live

منزل السلاسل•Feed

Welcome to the Lead-Lag Live podcast, where we bring you live unscripted conversations with thought leaders in the world of finance, economics, and investing. Hosted through X Spaces by Michael A. Gayed, CFA, Publisher of The Lead-Lag Report (@leadlagreport), each episode dives deep into the minds of industry experts to discuss current market trends, investment strategies, and the global economic landscape.
In this exciting series, you'll have the rare opportunity to join Michael A. Gayed as he connects with prominent thought leaders for captivating discussions in real-time. The Lead-Lag Live podcast aims to provide valuable insights, analysis, and actionable advice for investors and financial professionals alike.
As a dedicated listener, you can expect to hear from renowned financial experts, best-selling authors, and market strategists as they share their wealth of knowledge and experience. With a focus on topical issues and their potential impact on financial markets, these live unscripted conversations will ensure that you stay informed and ahead of the curve.
Subscribe to the Lead-Lag Live podcast and follow @leadlagreport on X to stay updated on upcoming live conversations and to gain exclusive access to a treasure trove of financial wisdom. Don't miss out on this incredible opportunity to learn from the best and brightest minds in the business.
Join us on this journey as we explore the complex world of finance and investments, one live unscripted conversation at a time. Be sure to like, comment, and share the Lead-Lag Live podcast with your network to help others discover these invaluable insights.
Stay tuned for the latest episode of the Lead-Lag Live podcast, and remember to turn on notifications so you never miss a live conversation with your favorite thought leaders. Happy listening!

810 حلقات

#Trading #Business #Michael A Gayed CFA #CFA #Michael A Gayed #Investing #Inflation #Economy #Options #Podcasting Education #Stock #Bond #Recess

Lead-Lag Live

40 subscribers

updated منذ 3 أيام

منزل السلاسل•Feed

810 حلقات

#Trading #Business #Michael A Gayed CFA #CFA #Michael A Gayed #Investing #Inflation #Economy #Options #Podcasting Education #Stock #Bond #Recess

كل الحلقات

1
Carbon Markets as Alternative Investments with Luke Oliver 48:14

منذ 3 أيام48:14

48:14

The quest for true portfolio diversification often feels impossible in today's market environment. When volatility strikes, traditional "alternatives" tend to move in lockstep with equities, undermining their diversification benefits. But what if there existed an asset class with genuine structural independence from equity markets? Enter the carbon credit market – perhaps the ultimate alternative investment. With a remarkably low 0.3 correlation to US equities, carbon markets offer double the potential returns of the S&P 500 while operating on completely different cycles. Unlike most investments vulnerable to economic downturns, carbon markets feature government-mandated demand, steadily decreasing supply, and in California's case, a floor price that increases by inflation plus 5% annually – approximately 8% in today's environment. This trillion-dollar market remains largely unknown to mainstream investors despite covering 25% of the global economy. Companies across Europe, California, the UK, and other regions must purchase carbon permits corresponding to their emissions by law. As governments tighten these markets to meet climate goals through 2050, the structural pressure on prices creates a compelling investment case completely disconnected from traditional market dynamics. Luke Oliver of KraneShares explains how carbon investments like KRBN (global carbon), KCCA (California carbon), and KEUA (European carbon) can transform portfolio construction. Typically allocated at 2-4% of portfolios (though some institutions go up to 8%), carbon exposure provides diversification previously available only to endowments and family offices. For investors searching for alternatives that actually behave differently from stocks during market stress, carbon credits offer a unique opportunity backed by regulatory frameworks rather than sentiment. Ready to diversify beyond the traditional 60/40 portfolio? Explore how carbon markets might be the missing piece in your investment strategy – offering genuine diversification with substantial return potential in a world where true alternatives have become increasingly scarce. With ChatDOC, instantly analyze professional documents using AI — featuring word-level citations , chart/formula breakdowns, cross-file query, and full support for PDFs/epub/scanned files. Free version handles 10 documents (up to 3000 pages) and cross-searches 30 files. Click the link below to unlock +10 document slots : https://chatdoc.com?src=leadlaglive Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive . Foodies unite…with HowUdish! It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world! Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups! HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world. So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show…

1
Breaking the 60/40 Myth with Philip Toews 43:09

منذ 8 أيام43:09

43:09

Phillip Toews, founder of Toews Asset Management, delivers a master class in portfolio construction that challenges everything you thought you knew about investing. Drawing from historical market catastrophes often ignored by conventional wisdom, Toews reveals how a traditional 60/40 portfolio would have been devastated during the Great Depression – losing up to 72% of its value and remaining down over 60% after thirteen years. This eye-opening conversation explores the concept of "adaptive fixed income" as Toews walks us through the little-discussed bond bear market from 1945 to 1981 that eroded investor wealth by 21% in real terms. With high sovereign debt levels globally and unprecedented monetary policy responses, Toews suggests we may be vulnerable to currency debasement rather than traditional market dynamics. The heart of Toews' philosophy lies in his revolutionary approach to behavioral finance. Rather than starting with conventional portfolios and coaching investors through volatility, he advocates designing "all-weather" portfolios from the ground up that address both economic and psychological needs. His hedged equity approach aims to capture most market upside while dramatically limiting participation in downturns, potentially allowing investors to maintain positions during crashes and capitalize on eventual recoveries. Toews introduces the concept of "corona bias" – just as society was unprepared for a pandemic despite historical precedent, investors ignore financial catastrophes outside their professional lifetimes. This collective amnesia leaves portfolios vulnerable to recurrences of historical calamities. Whether you're an investment professional seeking to differentiate your practice or an individual investor concerned about today's complex market environment, this conversation provides a roadmap for building portfolios designed to withstand various economic scenarios while managing the crucial behavioral aspects of investing. Discover why Toews' recently published book "The Behavioral Portfolio" is changing how advisors approach client relationships and portfolio construction. With ChatDOC, instantly analyze professional documents using AI — featuring word-level citations , chart/formula breakdowns, cross-file query, and full support for PDFs/epub/scanned files. Free version handles 10 documents (up to 3000 pages) and cross-searches 30 files. Click the link below to unlock +10 document slots : https://chatdoc.com?src=leadlaglive Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive . Foodies unite…with HowUdish! It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world! Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups! HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world. So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show…

1
The Rise of Intangible Value Investing with Kai Wu 46:42

منذ 10 أيام46:42

46:42

Warren Buffett himself called our economy "asset light" – and for good reason. Today's most valuable companies derive their worth not from factories or equipment, but from intellectual property, brand equity, human capital, and network effects. Yet traditional value investing metrics, developed in the industrial era of railroads and utilities, completely miss these crucial drivers of modern business value. Kai Wu, founder and CIO of Sparkline Capital, takes us on a fascinating journey through the evolution of value investing and explains why it's due for a radical update. With 50-80% of US company balance sheet value now coming from intangible assets, investors relying solely on price-to-book ratios find themselves increasingly unable to identify true value in today's markets. The problem extends beyond mere definition. Our accounting standards systematically distort company valuations by expensing rather than capitalizing R&D and other intangible investments. This creates the paradoxical situation where companies investing heavily in their future appear less profitable in the present – a disconnect that creates tremendous opportunity for investors willing to look deeper. Sparkline's innovative approach leverages artificial intelligence and big data to analyze unstructured information sources, from patent filings to social media, quantifying what traditional financial statements miss. This methodology bridges the growing divide between growth and value investors, applying timeless valuation principles to the digital economy. Wu shares a compelling case study of NVIDIA, which Sparkline owned when it traded at a seemingly astronomical P/E ratio of 100. After adjusting for NVIDIA's extraordinary intellectual property and innovative culture, their models showed the stock was actually undervalued – a perspective completely missed by traditional metrics. For investors looking to apply these insights, Sparkline offers two ETFs: ITAN for US markets and DTAN for international developed markets. Both funds seek companies rich in intangible assets but trading at reasonable valuations – essentially value investing adapted for the digital age. Want to dive deeper into Kai's research? Visit sparklinecapital.com to explore his published papers and learn more about investing in the intangible economy. With ChatDOC, instantly analyze professional documents using AI — featuring word-level citations , chart/formula breakdowns, cross-file query, and full support for PDFs/epub/scanned files. Free version handles 10 documents (up to 3000 pages) and cross-searches 30 files. Click the link below to unlock +10 document slots : https://chatdoc.com?src=leadlaglive Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive . Foodies unite…with HowUdish! It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world! Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups! HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world. So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show…

1
Global Markets Beyond America 38:21

منذ 11 يومًا38:21

38:21

The global investment landscape is shifting beneath our feet, yet most investors remain fixated on US markets. Rohit Goel, Partner and Head of Global Macro at Breakout Capital, reveals why this myopia could prove costly in the years ahead. Rohit drives home an alarming point: US fiscal deficits running at 6.5-7% of GDP during economic expansion represent an understated risk that markets have largely ignored. "If it is any other country on this planet, you would see a reaction, whether in bond yields or currency," he explains. This fiscal vulnerability could eventually force global investors to demand higher risk premiums on US assets, catalyzing capital flows toward international alternatives. Where might this capital flow? Rohit points to markets starved of investment for fifteen years – Europe, Japan, and particularly emerging markets. Latin America stands at an inflection point with elections potentially delivering reform-minded leadership across major economies. Poland's investment-focused policies create another bright spot, while frontier markets from Nigeria to Sri Lanka implement meaningful reforms after pandemic-era financing constraints forced hard choices. Perhaps most valuable is Rohit's framework for emerging market investing: "In emerging markets, 65% of returns are attributable to country selection." Unlike developed markets where sector selection drives performance, getting the country right is paramount in emerging spaces. And while liquidity remains challenging, patient investors with two-to-five-year horizons stand to benefit as capital eventually follows performance. Rohit also dispels a common misconception about dollar cycles. The currency's likely depreciation over the next several years represents a normal economic cycle unrelated to reserve currency status. Since 1975, the dollar has experienced multiple significant bear markets without losing its position in the global financial architecture. For investors willing to look beyond US borders, the coming years may offer extraordinary opportunities in markets long overlooked by global capital. The question is whether you'll position yourself ahead of this potential sea change or chase it after it's already underway. With ChatDOC, instantly analyze professional documents using AI — featuring word-level citations , chart/formula breakdowns, cross-file query, and full support for PDFs/epub/scanned files. Free version handles 10 documents (up to 3000 pages) and cross-searches 30 files. Click the link below to unlock +10 document slots : https://chatdoc.com?src=leadlaglive Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive . Support the show…

1
Trading Psychology Unveiled 45:12

منذ 16 يومًا45:12

45:12

Remember when trading meant calling your broker and waiting an hour just to find out if your order was filled? That world is gone. JJ Kinahan, CEO of IG North America (parent company of Tasty Trade), shares how the playing field has fundamentally changed for retail traders. With 21 years of experience trading on the Chicago Board Options Exchange and leadership roles at major brokerages, JJ offers rare insight into this transformation. Today's retail traders wield professional-grade tools, instant executions, and information flows that rival institutional capabilities. The most dramatic shift? Options trading is no longer exclusive to professionals. As JJ explains, "Options are giant probabilities" that can be used strategically when traders understand the risks involved. The conversation explores a fascinating retail trading psychology: during market uncertainty (like the recent "tariff tantrum"), traders initially flock to broad ETFs like SPDR and QQQ, gradually returning to individual stocks as confidence rebuilds—starting predictably with Microsoft and Meta. This behavioral pattern offers valuable signals about market sentiment that even professionals watch closely. For new traders, JJ's advice is refreshingly straightforward: start with one contract, know your personal risk tolerance, and understand why you're entering each trade. "The easiest thing in the world is to risk more money. The hardest thing is to risk a lot, lose it, and then get into a bad cycle where you feel you have to make it back." Looking ahead, the trading landscape continues evolving toward 24/7 access, with Tasty Trade launching 24-5 equity trading by June. This shift reflects growing global interest in US markets and the expectation that investors should be able to react to news in real-time, regardless of time zone. Ready to level up your trading knowledge? Explore how defining your risk parameters might be the most important skill you can develop as a trader. With ChatDOC, instantly analyze professional documents using AI — featuring word-level citations , chart/formula breakdowns, cross-file query, and full support for PDFs/epub/scanned files. Free version handles 10 documents (up to 3000 pages) and cross-searches 30 files. Click the link below to unlock +10 document slots : https://chatdoc.com?src=leadlaglive Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive . Foodies unite…with HowUdish! It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world! Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups! HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world. So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show…

1
Finding the Hidden Gems in Mid-Cap Markets 42:30

منذ 17 يومًا42:30

42:30

Ever wonder why everyone seems to chase the same handful of mega-cap tech stocks? Seth Cogswell of Running Oak challenges this herd mentality with a refreshingly contrarian perspective: the real opportunity lies in investing where others aren't. This candid conversation explores how market complacency has driven investors to overlook compelling opportunities hiding in plain sight. Seth makes a powerful case for mid-cap stocks, which have actually outperformed large-caps by 60 basis points annually over 33 years—delivering 20% more total return—yet remain undervalued while the S&P 500's largest components trade at extreme premiums. The discussion delves into today's unprecedented corporate debt landscape, where companies have borrowed heavily just to finance buybacks rather than productive investments. As interest rates rise, we may witness a complete reversal of this trend: companies selling equity to pay down debt, creating significant headwinds for overleveraged firms and their shareholders. Meanwhile, "zombie companies" that survived only through cheap refinancing face an existential threat. Seth shares the philosophy behind Running Oak's RUNN ETF, explaining why quality factors like lower debt and earnings consistency matter more than ever, and why equal-weighting positions offers both protection and opportunity in today's market environment. You'll gain insights into why historical patterns suggest today's market concentration is anomalous rather than the new normal. Whether you're concerned about portfolio concentration, seeking undervalued opportunities, or simply want a fresh perspective on navigating today's complex markets, this conversation offers practical wisdom that cuts through the noise. Ready to discover where smart money is quietly positioning for the next market phase? Listen now and reconsider what might be missing from your investment approach. With ChatDOC, instantly analyze professional documents using AI — featuring word-level citations , chart/formula breakdowns, cross-file query, and full support for PDFs/epub/scanned files. Free version handles 10 documents (up to 3000 pages) and cross-searches 30 files. Click the link below to unlock +10 document slots : https://chatdoc.com?src=leadlaglive Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive . Foodies unite…with HowUdish! It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world! Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups! HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world. So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show…

1
The Hidden Bus: Preparing for Market Uncertainty 45:29

منذ 19 يومًا45:29

45:29

Ever notice how the biggest market disruptions are rarely the ones everyone sees coming? Brad Barrie challenges conventional wisdom about diversification with his compelling "bus you don't see" analogy, explaining why most investors remain vulnerable despite thinking they're adequately protected. "Diversification is not more stuff," Brad emphasizes, dismantling the common misconception that simply owning numerous investments creates safety. His multidimensional asset allocation approach transcends traditional thinking by focusing on diversifying return drivers rather than just asset classes. This subtle but crucial distinction makes all the difference when markets experience unexpected shocks. Through practical examples like the recent tariff volatility, Brad demonstrates how investors often underestimate visible risks while remaining completely blind to others. His counterintuitive wisdom that "diversification means always having to say you're sorry" reveals an uncomfortable truth: if everything in your portfolio performs well simultaneously, you're probably not truly diversified. Brad explains how his Dynamic Alpha Macro Fund (DYMIX) embodies this philosophy by combining equities with discretionary global macro futures strategies. Unlike trend-following approaches that struggle in choppy markets, DYMIX positions based on fundamental theses that remain valid regardless of broader market conditions. This creates genuine non-correlation not just to stocks and bonds, but to other alternative strategies as well. The conversation delivers actionable insights for both investors and advisors seeking to build more resilient portfolios. By understanding the specific drivers behind different investments and combining multiple uncorrelated return sources, you can better prepare for the investment "buses" you never see coming. Visit dynamicwg.com to learn more about Brad's multidimensional approach to navigating today's complex market environment. With ChatDOC, instantly analyze professional documents using AI — featuring word-level citations , chart/formula breakdowns, cross-file query, and full support for PDFs/epub/scanned files. Free version handles 10 documents (up to 3000 pages) and cross-searches 30 files. Click the link below to unlock +10 document slots : https://chatdoc.com?src=leadlaglive Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive . Foodies unite…with HowUdish! It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world! Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups! HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world. So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show…

1
Unlocking China's Potential Through Covered Calls 48:43

منذ 22 يومًا48:43

48:43

Are you struggling to find meaningful yield in today's unpredictable markets? You're not alone. The investment landscape is evolving rapidly, pushing savvy investors toward innovative solutions that combine income potential with strategic diversification. In this enlightening conversation with Jonathan Shelon, Chief Operating Officer at KraneShares, we dive deep into the explosive growth of covered call strategies and why international markets offer a particularly compelling opportunity. Shelon reveals how KLIP, KraneShares' international covered call ETF focused on Chinese internet stocks, generates monthly income in the impressive 3-5% range – substantially higher than what most U.S.-based covered call products offer. What makes this strategy especially powerful is its diversification benefit. With a correlation of just 0.4 between U.S. and Chinese markets, these assets move on completely different cycles, creating a portfolio cushion when you need it most. As Shelon explains, "When US markets experience stress or drawdowns, it happens at a completely different time than when China experiences market stress." We explore the compelling valuation case for Chinese equities, with tech companies trading at PE ratios in the mid-teens while maintaining strong growth. This stands in stark contrast to U.S. markets trading near historic highs both in index levels and valuations. Most investors remain significantly underweight China at just 2-3% exposure, despite KraneShares recommending 5-10% allocation. Whether you're seeking to enhance your income strategy, reduce portfolio volatility, or strategically position for a potential shift in global market leadership, this conversation offers practical insights you won't want to miss. Ready to transform your approach to income and international diversification? Visit kraneshares.com to learn more about KLIP and other innovative investment solutions designed for today's challenging market environment. With ChatDOC, instantly analyze professional documents using AI — featuring word-level citations , chart/formula breakdowns, cross-file query, and full support for PDFs/epub/scanned files. Free version handles 10 documents (up to 3000 pages) and cross-searches 30 files. Click the link below to unlock +10 document slots : https://chatdoc.com?src=leadlaglive Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive . Foodies unite…with HowUdish! It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world! Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups! HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world. So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show…

1
Navigating Rising Yields 53:24

منذ 23 يومًا53:24

53:24

The financial world stands at a critical juncture as Treasury yields approach 18-year highs and markets wrestle with conflicting economic signals. In this riveting conversation between macro strategists Jim Bianco and Jay Hatfield, hosted by Michael Gayed, we explore the counterintuitive relationship between Fed policy and market reactions that has left many investors scratching their heads. When the Fed cut rates last September, yields went up. This paradox forms the backdrop for a fascinating debate about whether higher rates might actually be the cure for higher rates. Hatfield advances his "Hopfield Rule"—the observation that housing starts falling below 1.1 million units have preceded 11 of 12 post-WWII recessions—suggesting we may be closer to economic trouble than many realize. Meanwhile, a 20% drop in oil prices this year has created what Hatfield calls "stag-deflation" rather than the stagflation many fear. The conversation takes a surprising turn when examining market influences. Bianco reveals that retail investors purchased $4.1 billion worth of stocks in just four hours following the Moody's downgrade, effectively stabilizing the market. This "do-it-yourself" investor revolution has fundamentally changed market dynamics, with retail traders wielding unprecedented influence despite focusing on just a handful of popular stocks and ETFs. Both experts offer nuanced perspectives on tariffs, inflation expectations, and the global bond sell-off. While the immediate outlook suggests continued volatility, they highlight that today's fixed income market structure offers significantly more favorable characteristics than during the initial rate hiking cycle of 2022-2023. Whether you're concerned about spiking Treasury yields, curious about the impact of retail traders, or trying to position your portfolio for what comes next, this discussion provides crucial insights from two of the sharpest minds in macro investing. Subscribe for more illuminating conversations that help you navigate these complex market conditions. With ChatDOC, instantly analyze professional documents using AI — featuring word-level citations , chart/formula breakdowns, cross-file query, and full support for PDFs/epub/scanned files. Free version handles 10 documents (up to 3000 pages) and cross-searches 30 files. Click the link below to unlock +10 document slots : https://chatdoc.com?src=leadlaglive Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive . Foodies unite…with HowUdish! It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world! Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups! HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world. So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show…

1
Inside AI: The Future of Technology Investments 29:21

منذ 25 يومًا29:21

29:21

Technology isn't just a sector anymore—it's the driving force reshaping every industry. Whether companies are creating technology or adopting it to avoid disruption, understanding this transformation is crucial for investment success. Columbia Threadneedle's tech investment approach stands apart through its disciplined focus on three complementary buckets: moat-type businesses with sustainable competitive advantages, secular growth themes identified early, and value opportunities where market prices underestimate business quality. This balanced strategy has consistently generated top-tier returns, with their technology portfolio ranking in Morningstar's top third for 8 of the past 12 years. What truly distinguishes their approach is patience. With just 7% annual turnover, they allow investments in companies like Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and NVIDIA to compound over many years. This long-term perspective proves especially valuable when navigating tech's inherent volatility. As portfolio manager Rahul explains, even AI—their largest investment theme since 2016—has experienced two 20% pullbacks in the last 18 months alone. Recent earnings revealed tech's continued strength, with mega-cap tech growing earnings 28% versus just 9% for the remainder S&P 493. Cloud infrastructure spending is projected to reach $390 billion this year, nearly nine times higher than a decade ago. While tariffs pose the most significant current risk, particularly for semiconductors, the team's diversified approach and deep research capabilities help manage these challenges. With technology now representing 31% of the S&P 500 and nearly half the Russell 1000 Growth Index, investors increasingly recognize the value of specialist management in this complex sector. Columbia Threadneedle's recently launched Select Technology ETF (SEMI) offers another vehicle to access their expertise alongside their established funds. Ready to enhance your portfolio with professional technology exposure? Visit Columbia Threadneedle's website to explore their SEMI ETF and discover how their research-driven approach can help navigate technology's opportunities and challenges. With ChatDOC, instantly analyze professional documents using AI — featuring word-level citations , chart/formula breakdowns, cross-file query, and full support for PDFs/epub/scanned files. Free version handles 10 documents (up to 3000 pages) and cross-searches 30 files. Click the link below to unlock +10 document slots : https://chatdoc.com?src=leadlaglive Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive . Support the show…

1
Money & Markets: Navigating Stagflation 38:48

منذ 26 يومًا38:48

38:48

The specter of stagflation—sluggish economic growth combined with persistent inflation—looms large in today's uncertain economic landscape. While Federal Reserve Chair Powell once claimed to see "no stag and no flation," current indicators suggest otherwise. Economic growth appears to be slowing after an extended expansion, while inflation remains stubbornly above target levels. Adding to these concerns, potential tariffs could exacerbate stagflationary pressures by simultaneously hampering growth and increasing prices. Amid this challenging environment, conventional investment wisdom falls short. The standard 60/40 portfolio, commonly touted as "balanced," actually maintains a 90% correlation to an all-stock portfolio—hardly providing true diversification when markets face stagflationary headwinds. This reality underscores the value of risk parity strategies, which distribute risk evenly across assets that perform differently under varying economic conditions. Gold emerges as a particularly compelling asset in this context. Contrary to popular perception, gold has outperformed stocks over the past 25 years and has nearly matched global equities' returns since 1971, trailing by merely half a percent annually. During the stagflationary 1970s, gold appreciated by approximately 30% annually, highlighting its effectiveness as a portfolio stabilizer during precisely the economic conditions many fear today. The risk parity approach offers a systematic framework for achieving genuine diversification—not by simply holding numerous securities, but by balancing risk exposure across uncorrelated assets. This means owning more of less volatile assets and less of more volatile ones, ensuring no single economic factor dominates portfolio performance. When implemented within an ETF structure like RPAR, this approach gains additional tax efficiencies while automating the psychologically challenging process of regular rebalancing. Ready to protect your portfolio against stagflation while maintaining long-term growth potential? Explore how risk parity strategies might complement your existing investments and provide smoother returns through uncertain economic conditions. With ChatDOC, instantly analyze professional documents using AI — featuring word-level citations , chart/formula breakdowns, cross-file query, and full support for PDFs/epub/scanned files. Free version handles 10 documents (up to 3000 pages) and cross-searches 30 files. Click the link below to unlock +10 document slots : https://chatdoc.com?src=leadlaglive Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive . Support the show…

1
Market Mayhem: Is the Worst Behind Us? 15:22

منذ 28 يومًا15:22

15:22

Market veterans know that bull runs and corrections rarely travel in straight lines, and in this riveting conversation with Michael Gayed, we explore the subtle signals suggesting our recent market recovery might be more fragile than it appears. Michael, who accurately predicted the S&P's 20% drop earlier this year, walks us through the conflicting indicators currently puzzling even seasoned analysts. What particularly stands out is the disconnect between rapidly recovered credit spreads and still-struggling small caps – a warning sign Michael believes shouldn't be ignored. Treasury yields remain stubbornly elevated despite easing tariff concerns, while the Japanese yen's strengthening since January suggests forces beyond trade policy may be driving market volatility. For anyone trying to read these complex market signals, Michael offers a refreshingly candid framework that cuts through the noise. The conversation takes a fascinating turn when addressing gold's prospects, with Michael clarifying his controversial stance. Having been bullish since October 2023, he now sees gold transitioning from safety asset to momentum play – often a precursor to correction. Through behavioral finance principles like the disposition effect, he explains why gold could face a 10-20% pullback despite its long-term bull case remaining intact. Most provocatively, we explore what Michael calls "manipulation on a scale we've never seen before," where presidential tweets move markets and rhetoric trumps fundamentals. If you're navigating today's bewildering investment landscape, this episode provides the context and perspective to help you distinguish between market noise and meaningful signals. Subscribe now for more cutting-edge market insights that go beyond the headlines! With ChatDOC, instantly analyze professional documents using AI — featuring word-level citations , chart/formula breakdowns, cross-file query, and full support for PDFs/epub/scanned files. Free version handles 10 documents (up to 3000 pages) and cross-searches 30 files. Click the link below to unlock +10 document slots : https://chatdoc.com?src=leadlaglive Support the show…

1
Investment Strategies for Uncertain Times 48:40

منذ 30 يومًا48:40

48:40

The financial landscape has dramatically shifted, leaving income-focused investors struggling to find reliable yield. Traditional bonds no longer serve as the dependable ballast they once were, forcing advisors and retirees to explore alternative paths to consistent income. Howard Chan, formerly of PIMCO and Goldman Sachs, shares how his firm Kurv Investments is addressing this challenge through volatility harvesting strategies that transform growth-oriented technology stocks into income-generating powerhouses. This approach solves a fundamental dilemma: no longer must investors choose between growth potential and current income – they can potentially have both. What makes these strategies particularly valuable today is the breakdown of traditional asset correlations. The negative relationship between stocks and bonds that underpinned the classic 60/40 portfolio has weakened significantly, with both assets sometimes declining simultaneously during market stress. Volatility itself has emerged as an effective portfolio diversifier with a -0.8 correlation to equity markets this year. Through covered call writing on high-volatility tech names, these strategies can generate substantial yields (7-14% annually) while maintaining some upside participation. The approach follows a four-step framework for navigating market turbulence: mitigating downside during corrections, generating income while awaiting clarity, repositioning for rebounds, and then capturing upside during risk-on periods. Particularly enlightening is Howard's warning about NAV erosion in high-yield ETFs – when funds promise distributions above what markets can sustainably deliver, they must return principal to maintain their stated yield, creating a slow death spiral for investor capital. This critical concept is often overlooked by yield-hungry retail investors. For those approaching or in retirement who rely on portfolio income rather than total return, these alternative income streams may provide the consistency and tax efficiency that traditional fixed income currently lacks. As Howard notes, with US debt growing at 7% while GDP grows at just 2-3%, challenging fiscal choices lie ahead – making thoughtful income strategies more essential than ever. With ChatDOC, instantly analyze professional documents using AI — featuring word-level citations , chart/formula breakdowns, cross-file query, and full support for PDFs/epub/scanned files. Free version handles 10 documents (up to 3000 pages) and cross-searches 30 files. Click the link below to unlock +10 document slots : https://chatdoc.com?src=leadlaglive Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive . Foodies unite…with HowUdish! It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world! Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups! HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world. So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show…

منذ 24 weeks51:02

51:02

Join us for a compelling conversation with Axel Merk from Merk Investments, as we unravel the complexities of risk management and the significant role gold plays in investment strategies. Discover how Axel transitioned from tech investing to managing an impressive $1.6 billion in gold and gold mining investments. This episode promises insights into the critical nuances of hedging, disciplined investment strategies, and the lessons learned from financial upheavals like the 2008 crisis. We'll discuss how maintaining a balanced portfolio and avoiding overexposure can safeguard your investments when markets appear deceptively calm. Explore the psychological and emotional dimensions of investing, particularly when facing substantial portfolio declines. Axel Merk and I dissect the common gap between expected and actual investor behavior during downturns, emphasizing the importance of understanding one's risk tolerance. Learn about the strategic use of gold as a hedge, its fluctuating correlations, and the potential benefits during economic instability. The discussion extends to the mining sector, with insights into the impacts of deregulation, the volatility of energy costs, and the essential role of management teams in executing successful projects on time and within budget. We wrap up with a forward-looking perspective on economic forecasting and the intriguing potential of AI in refining investment strategies. The conversation touches on the challenges of navigating deregulation and fiscal policy, underscoring the importance of diversification and realistic market expectations. Axel and I consider why mid-cap and development-stage companies may offer more potential in the gold mining sector, given their venture capital-like dynamics. As we close, I express gratitude to Axel Merk for his invaluable insights and share plans for a networking luncheon in Manhattan with industry leader Hal Lambert. Join us as we connect with the minds shaping the future of investing. DISCLAIMER – PLEASE READ: This is a sponsored episode for which Lead-Lag Publishing, LLC has been paid a fee. Lead-Lag Publishing, LLC does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in the episode or make any representation as to its quality. All statements and expressions provided in this episode are the sole opinion of Merk Investments and Lead-Lag Publishing, LLC expressly disclaims any responsibility for action taken in connection with the information provided in the discussion. The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participant With ChatDOC, instantly analyze professional documents using AI — featuring word-level citations , chart/formula breakdowns, cross-file query, and full support for PDFs/epub/scanned files. Free version handles 10 documents (up to 3000 pages) and cross-searches 30 files. Click the link below to unlock +10 document slots : https://chatdoc.com?src=leadlaglive Sign up to The Lead-Lag Report on Substack and get 30% off the annual subscription today by visiting http://theleadlag.report/leadlaglive . Foodies unite…with HowUdish! It’s social media with a secret sauce: FOOD! The world’s first network for food enthusiasts. HowUdish connects foodies across the world! Share kitchen tips and recipe hacks. Discover hidden gem food joints and street food. Find foodies like you, connect, chat and organize meet-ups! HowUdish makes it simple to connect through food anywhere in the world. So, how do YOU dish? Download HowUdish on the Apple App Store today: Support the show…

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