A common claim among e/accs is that, since the solar system is big, Earth will be left alone by superintelligences. A simple rejoinder is that just because Bernard Arnault has $170 billion, does not mean that he'll give you $77.18. Earth subtends only 4.54e-10 = 0.0000000454% of the angular area around the Sun, according to GPT-o1.[1] Asking an ASI…

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Glitch Token Catalog - (Almost) a Full Clear, published by Lao Mein on September 22, 2024 on LessWrong. This is a collection of every unidentified GPT2 glitch token …

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Investigating an insurance-for-AI startup, published by L Rudolf L on September 21, 2024 on LessWrong. We (Flo & Rudolf) spent a month fleshing out the idea of an in…

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Applications of Chaos: Saying No (with Hastings Greer), published by Elizabeth on September 21, 2024 on LessWrong. Previously Alex Altair and I published a post on t…

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Work with me on agent foundations: independent fellowship, published by Alex Altair on September 21, 2024 on LessWrong. Summary: I am an independent researcher in ag…

A year ago, I started trying to deliberate practice skills that would "help people figure out the answers to confusing, important questions." I experimented with Thinking Physics questions, GPQA questions, Puzzle Games , Strategy Games, and a stupid twitchy reflex game I had struggled to beat for 8 years[1]. Then I went back to my day job and tried…

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: o1-preview is pretty good at doing ML on an unknown dataset, published by Håvard Tveit Ihle on September 20, 2024 on LessWrong. Previous post: How good are LLMs at d…

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Interested in Cognitive Bootcamp?, published by Raemon on September 20, 2024 on LessWrong. I'm running more 4-day "Cognitive Bootcamps" over the next couple months (…

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Laziness death spirals, published by PatrickDFarley on September 19, 2024 on LessWrong. I've claimed that Willpower compounds and that small wins in the present make…

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: We Don't Know Our Own Values, but Reward Bridges The Is-Ought Gap, published by johnswentworth on September 19, 2024 on LessWrong. Background: "Learning" vs "Learnin…

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: AI #82: The Governor Ponders, published by Zvi on September 19, 2024 on LessWrong. The big news of the week was of course OpenAI releasing their new model o1. If you…

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Which LessWrong/Alignment topics would you like to be tutored in? [Poll], published by Ruby on September 19, 2024 on LessWrong. Would you like to be tutored in appli…

After the release of Ben Pace's extended interview with me about my views on religion, I felt inspired to publish more of my thinking about religion in a format that's more detailed, compact, and organized. This post is the first publication in my series of intended posts about religion. Thanks to Ben Pace, Chris Lakin, Richard Ngo, Renshin Lauren …

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: [Intuitive self-models] 1. Preliminaries, published by Steven Byrnes on September 19, 2024 on LessWrong. 1.1 Summary & Table of Contents This is the first of a serie…

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: The case for a negative alignment tax, published by Cameron Berg on September 18, 2024 on LessWrong. TL;DR: Alignment researchers have historically predicted that bu…

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Monthly Roundup #22: September 2024, published by Zvi on September 18, 2024 on LessWrong. It's that time again for all the sufficiently interesting news that isn't o…

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Generative ML in chemistry is bottlenecked by synthesis, published by Abhishaike Mahajan on September 18, 2024 on LessWrong. Introduction Every single time I design …

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Skills from a year of Purposeful Rationality Practice, published by Raemon on September 18, 2024 on LessWrong. A year ago, I started trying to deliberate practice sk…

There's a popular story that goes like this: Christopher Hitchens used to be in favor of the US waterboarding terrorists because he though it's wasn't bad enough to be torture.. Then he had it tried on himself, and changed his mind, coming to believe it isn't torture. (Context for those unfamiliar: in the decade following 9/11, the US engaged in a …

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: I finally got ChatGPT to sound like me, published by lsusr on September 17, 2024 on LessWrong. I publish lots of words on the Internet. These words are fed into LLMs…

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Book review: Xenosystems, published by jessicata on September 17, 2024 on LessWrong. I've met a few Landians over the last couple years, and they generally recommend…

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: MIRI's September 2024 newsletter, published by Harlan on September 17, 2024 on LessWrong. MIRI updates Aaron Scher and Joe Collman have joined the Technical Governan…

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Secret Collusion: Will We Know When to Unplug AI?, published by schroederdewitt on September 16, 2024 on LessWrong. TL;DR: We introduce the first comprehensive theor…

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: GPT-4o1, published by Zvi on September 16, 2024 on LessWrong. Terrible name (with a terrible reason, that this 'resets the counter' on AI capability to 1, and 'o' as…

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: How you can help pass important AI legislation with 10 minutes of effort, published by ThomasW on September 16, 2024 on LessWrong. Posting something about a current …

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: My disagreements with "AGI ruin: A List of Lethalities", published by Noosphere89 on September 16, 2024 on LessWrong. This is going to probably be a long post, so do…

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Why I funded PIBBSS, published by Ryan Kidd on September 15, 2024 on LessWrong. I just left a comment on PIBBSS' Manfund grant request (which I funded $25k) that peo…

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Proveably Safe Self Driving Cars, published by Davidmanheim on September 15, 2024 on LessWrong. I've seen a fair amount of skepticism about the "Provably Safe AI" pa…

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Not every accommodation is a Curb Cut Effect: The Handicapped Parking Effect, the Clapper Effect, and more, published by Michael Cohn on September 15, 2024 on LessWr…

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Did Christopher Hitchens change his mind about waterboarding?, published by Isaac King on September 15, 2024 on LessWrong. There's a popular story that goes like thi…

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Pay-on-results personal growth: first success, published by Chipmonk on September 15, 2024 on LessWrong. Thanks to Kaj Sotala, Stag Lynn, and Ulisse Mini for reviewi…

Midjourney, “Fourth Industrial Revolution Digital Transformation”This is a little rant I like to give, because it's something I learned on the job that I’ve never seen written up explicitly. There are a bunch of buzzwords floating around regarding computer technology in an industrial or manufacturing context: “digital transformation”, “the Fourth I…

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: OpenAI o1, Llama 4, and AlphaZero of LLMs, published by Vladimir Nesov on September 14, 2024 on LessWrong. GPT-4 level open weights models like Llama-3-405B don't se…

[Conflict of interest disclaimer: We are FutureSearch, a company working on AI-powered forecasting and other types of quantitative reasoning. If thin LLM wrappers could achieve superhuman forecasting performance, this would obsolete a lot of our work.] Widespread, misleading claims about AI forecasting Recently we have seen a number of papers – (Sc…

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: If-Then Commitments for AI Risk Reduction [by Holden Karnofsky], published by habryka on September 14, 2024 on LessWrong. Holden just published this paper on the Car…

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Evidence against Learned Search in a Chess-Playing Neural Network, published by p.b. on September 14, 2024 on LessWrong. Introduction There is a new paper and lesswr…

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: The Great Data Integration Schlep, published by sarahconstantin on September 13, 2024 on LessWrong. This is a little rant I like to give, because it's something I le…

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: AI, centralization, and the One Ring, published by owencb on September 13, 2024 on LessWrong. People thinking about the future of AI sometimes talk about a single pr…

This is a link post. --- First published: September 12th, 2024 Source: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bhY5aE4MtwpGf3LCo/openai-o1 --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Open Problems in AIXI Agent Foundations, published by Cole Wyeth on September 13, 2024 on LessWrong. I believe that the theoretical foundations of the AIXI agent and…

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: How to Give in to Threats (without incentivizing them), published by Mikhail Samin on September 13, 2024 on LessWrong. TL;DR: using a simple mixed strategy, LDT can …

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Contra papers claiming superhuman AI forecasting, published by nikos on September 12, 2024 on LessWrong. [Conflict of interest disclaimer: We are FutureSearch, a com…

Link to original article Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: OpenAI o1, published by Zach Stein-Perlman on September 12, 2024 on LessWrong. It's more capable and better at using lots of inference-time compute via long (hidden)…