Options Jive - October 1, 2025 - Government Shutdown Impacts Past Lessons and 2025

The tastylive network

Hosts Nick and Tom analyzed historical government shutdown data showing mixed short-term performance but consistent longer-term rebounds. Past shutdowns delayed economic reports, affected federal workers (numbers ranging from 380,000 to 800,000+ employees), and created business disruptions through contract and permitting delays. However, market performance data from four major shutdowns (2013, 2018-19, and prior) revealed a "flop and pop" pattern - initial bearish moves followed by recovery after 3-4 weeks and strong gains once government reopens. The current shutdown's first day showed E-mini S&P down 28 points with VIX barely moving, suggesting markets view this as a buying opportunity rather than major crisis. Tom emphasized the pattern shows this is historically a "buy the dip" scenario, noting bonds at 117 and minimal volatility indicate markets aren't pricing significant disruption despite potential $7 billion weekly economic impact.