Rate Cuts, Rising Debt, and the Third Fed Mandate

Swan Signal Live - A Bitcoin Show

• Fed cut 25 bps; panel debates politics creeping into policy and what it means for risk assets
• Trump nominee Stephen Miran and the floated “third mandate” to “moderate long-term rates” seen as soft yield-curve control
• CPI data quality questioned: imputation/estimates are rising while lived costs outpace headline CPI
• Housing at peak unaffordability; searches for mortgage help, rent trouble, and credit-card stress are surging
• Labor mixed: manufacturing jobs slipping; job openings back near 2019 while S&P hovers near ATHs
• Moody’s recession risk ~48%—yet hosts note policymakers rarely tolerate prolonged market drawdowns
• Panel takeaway: despite macro cracks, being long scarce/risk assets (Bitcoin, equities, real estate, gold) generally wins vs. timing downturns
• Boomers’ home-equity windfall vs. younger generations sparks debate on “corrective” policies/UBI and the role of Bitcoin in restoring fairness
• Bitcoin treasury companies: PIPE unlock overhangs (e.g., Sequans, Nakamoto) create churn, but industry likely broadens beyond MSTR
• Cory Klippsten’s “tranching” frame: packaging Bitcoin exposure into debt/equity slices is pulling new capital into BTC and will scale

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