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المحتوى المقدم من McAlvany Weekly Commentary. يتم تحميل جميع محتويات البودكاست بما في ذلك الحلقات والرسومات وأوصاف البودكاست وتقديمها مباشرة بواسطة McAlvany Weekly Commentary أو شريك منصة البودكاست الخاص بهم. إذا كنت تعتقد أن شخصًا ما يستخدم عملك المحمي بحقوق الطبع والنشر دون إذنك، فيمكنك اتباع العملية الموضحة هنا https://ar.player.fm/legal.
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<div class="span index">1</div> <span><a class="" data-remote="true" data-type="html" href="/series/threshold-1347809">Threshold</a></span>
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Threshold is a Peabody Award-winning documentary podcast about our place in the natural world. Each season, we take listeners on a journey into the heart of a complex environmental story, asking how we got here and where we might be headed. In our latest season, Hark, we hand the mic over to our planet-mates and investigate what it means to truly listen to nonhuman voices—and the cost if we don't. With mounting social and ecological crises, what happens when we tune into the life all around us? Threshold is nonprofit, listener-supported, and independently produced.
BRICS to Steal Dollar Dominance
Manage episode 456150399 series 3624741
المحتوى المقدم من McAlvany Weekly Commentary. يتم تحميل جميع محتويات البودكاست بما في ذلك الحلقات والرسومات وأوصاف البودكاست وتقديمها مباشرة بواسطة McAlvany Weekly Commentary أو شريك منصة البودكاست الخاص بهم. إذا كنت تعتقد أن شخصًا ما يستخدم عملك المحمي بحقوق الطبع والنشر دون إذنك، فيمكنك اتباع العملية الموضحة هنا https://ar.player.fm/legal.
45 Countries attend BRIC Summit in Russia Gold seen as antidote to political/economic insanity Listen to Doug Noland’s analysis this Thursday: https://mcalvany.com/wealth/tactical-short-registration/ "Gold is sobriety in a world drunk on credit. Credit markets are where the action will be. Maybe that's over the next two to three years, not necessarily the next two to three months, but the downstream implications that stem from a credit bubble bursting will be like a flood, very difficult to contain." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, yesterday I was talking to a client in North Carolina, and it's tragic in some places, what happened in North Carolina, and then there's other places that were relatively unaffected—the higher elevation, and my client was in the higher elevation. But what we're seeing right now in real time in the physical world, there seems to be an analogy to that, doesn't there? You've been talking about the debt problem, and we just heard Morgan talking about the debt problem. It seems to me like there's a flood coming, and that is something that we can predict ahead of time. David: I have a picture on my phone. I have a little picnic with my family, and it was in Asheville a year and a half ago. We were looking for colleges for my oldest, and we stopped off at this little arts community, and lots of things, almost like a flea market and art gallery combined. We're sitting there, and off in the distance is this big mural about two stories high of Ruth Bader Ginsburg. And I look at these pictures from Asheville just a few weeks ago, and that entire complex was underwater, entire complex. From the picnic where you don't think that something like that can happen to looking in shock that, wait a minute, that's the tree we sat under. And you can see just the tippy-top of the tree. Kevin: Well, and the problem that you have with something like that, anytime you have an enormous deluge like came through, the dams are the things that you have to worry about because you don't just get the water that came at the time, but you get all the water that's been stored going backwards. David: Yeah, a few weeks back I watched a video that recapped those floods, and one I found fascinating to watch was— I think it has a debt market corollary. Dam nearly overflowing. It's a trickle of water, finding a weak spot through which to run. It went from a trickle to a flood as the dam itself was eroded, and then blew out, and downstream, there was nothing that could be done. So as I think about the debt markets, it's the downstream implications that stem from a credit bubble bursting, very much like a flood. It's difficult to contain. Join us this Thursday, Doug Noland and I will discuss late cycle bubble fragilities. This is our quarterly Tactical Short call. That's 2:00 PM Mountain Time. Register for the call. I think you'll need these insights pre-election. Kevin: Dave, we've often talked about when you were doing triathlon very regularly, about having in reserves— You have to have reserves, toward the end of the race especially. Like a matchbook. We talked about the analogy. You get 24 matches in a matchbook. You don't want to burn them all right off the bat. But I look at our debt. Again, Morgan just gave us our latest update, and this is the year we've talked about the interest on our debt exceeds what we pay for the military, and then next year, it's going to exceed what we pay for Social Security. You've got countries right now that are meeting—we're not talking just four or five BRIC countries. We're talking dozens of BRIC or potential BRIC countries meeting in Russia, Dave. Could they be discussing a critical breach in the dam that they think might be triggered? David: Yeah. Barron's did a great write-up on the 25th. "China, Russia, Brazil Want to Demote the Dollar. Gold is the Answer.
…
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252 حلقات
Manage episode 456150399 series 3624741
المحتوى المقدم من McAlvany Weekly Commentary. يتم تحميل جميع محتويات البودكاست بما في ذلك الحلقات والرسومات وأوصاف البودكاست وتقديمها مباشرة بواسطة McAlvany Weekly Commentary أو شريك منصة البودكاست الخاص بهم. إذا كنت تعتقد أن شخصًا ما يستخدم عملك المحمي بحقوق الطبع والنشر دون إذنك، فيمكنك اتباع العملية الموضحة هنا https://ar.player.fm/legal.
45 Countries attend BRIC Summit in Russia Gold seen as antidote to political/economic insanity Listen to Doug Noland’s analysis this Thursday: https://mcalvany.com/wealth/tactical-short-registration/ "Gold is sobriety in a world drunk on credit. Credit markets are where the action will be. Maybe that's over the next two to three years, not necessarily the next two to three months, but the downstream implications that stem from a credit bubble bursting will be like a flood, very difficult to contain." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, yesterday I was talking to a client in North Carolina, and it's tragic in some places, what happened in North Carolina, and then there's other places that were relatively unaffected—the higher elevation, and my client was in the higher elevation. But what we're seeing right now in real time in the physical world, there seems to be an analogy to that, doesn't there? You've been talking about the debt problem, and we just heard Morgan talking about the debt problem. It seems to me like there's a flood coming, and that is something that we can predict ahead of time. David: I have a picture on my phone. I have a little picnic with my family, and it was in Asheville a year and a half ago. We were looking for colleges for my oldest, and we stopped off at this little arts community, and lots of things, almost like a flea market and art gallery combined. We're sitting there, and off in the distance is this big mural about two stories high of Ruth Bader Ginsburg. And I look at these pictures from Asheville just a few weeks ago, and that entire complex was underwater, entire complex. From the picnic where you don't think that something like that can happen to looking in shock that, wait a minute, that's the tree we sat under. And you can see just the tippy-top of the tree. Kevin: Well, and the problem that you have with something like that, anytime you have an enormous deluge like came through, the dams are the things that you have to worry about because you don't just get the water that came at the time, but you get all the water that's been stored going backwards. David: Yeah, a few weeks back I watched a video that recapped those floods, and one I found fascinating to watch was— I think it has a debt market corollary. Dam nearly overflowing. It's a trickle of water, finding a weak spot through which to run. It went from a trickle to a flood as the dam itself was eroded, and then blew out, and downstream, there was nothing that could be done. So as I think about the debt markets, it's the downstream implications that stem from a credit bubble bursting, very much like a flood. It's difficult to contain. Join us this Thursday, Doug Noland and I will discuss late cycle bubble fragilities. This is our quarterly Tactical Short call. That's 2:00 PM Mountain Time. Register for the call. I think you'll need these insights pre-election. Kevin: Dave, we've often talked about when you were doing triathlon very regularly, about having in reserves— You have to have reserves, toward the end of the race especially. Like a matchbook. We talked about the analogy. You get 24 matches in a matchbook. You don't want to burn them all right off the bat. But I look at our debt. Again, Morgan just gave us our latest update, and this is the year we've talked about the interest on our debt exceeds what we pay for the military, and then next year, it's going to exceed what we pay for Social Security. You've got countries right now that are meeting—we're not talking just four or five BRIC countries. We're talking dozens of BRIC or potential BRIC countries meeting in Russia, Dave. Could they be discussing a critical breach in the dam that they think might be triggered? David: Yeah. Barron's did a great write-up on the 25th. "China, Russia, Brazil Want to Demote the Dollar. Gold is the Answer.
…
continue reading
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
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Gold Price In Dollars To Rise China Approves Gold Now In Its Insurance Company Portfolios Russian Consumer Demand For Gold Up 60% Since Ukraine Invasion "A weaker dollar is on the agenda, and this is a decided shift to force the dollar lower on a managed basis, ultimately will require a multilateral currency agreement that takes the dollar lower relative to its global peers. We'll have to have participation from other central banks as we orchestrate that. The Plaza Accord accomplished this in 1985, and a version of that is a growing likelihood." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Well, it was a quick trip, but I have to say aloha. Welcome back. David: The halfway point between the Philippines and Durango, Colorado is Honolulu—Waikiki. Kevin: Honolulu with a— Didn't you say you got a convertible and you just drove all around the island up to the North Shore? David: Oh, got a great deal, and took my parents all over the place. Yes, we're going to talk about gold. Kevin: Yeah. David: Yeah. New all-time highs warrant a conversation. It's trading over 2,900 this week. My call on Bloomberg Television a month back for 3,250 in 2025 seems a little less far-fetched. Kevin: It feels sort of daring when you do it and now you can look at it and go, "Okay, 3,250." We're very, very close to that, but let's go back to the trip. You have been out of the office now for the last week. Is there perspective that comes when you step away from the chaos? David: Definitely. A few days out of the office, a few days with my parents brings perspective. I'm grateful for our annual meetups, and I hope we have a lot more of them. I treasure each one of them. Kevin: I love the fact that you guys are so deliberate year after year after year. Think back, Dave. Think back to some of the great trips that you've had with your parents. David: Oh, well, one that stands out, I remember a trip to Manhattan with my parents to celebrate what was our first anniversary and their 30th. We were living in Boston at the time, so New York was a short stretch away. Now I'm approaching, still have five years, a 30th anniversary of my own. Life happens that fast. You blink, and decades have passed. I think we're confronted with inescapable moments of self-reflection, and sometimes those are at big life events. Think of your family, weddings, funerals. You get together and it's reflecting back and you see how much has changed in the time that's passed in between. Outside of the best man's toast and the epitaph—between them, I should say—there's a blur of days and years and decades. I think some of us with a melancholy streak or sentimental soft spot reflect a little more often and don't need those big days for inspiration. Most days, frankly, are strung together in sort of an undifferentiated stream like frames in a film reel. Kevin: I just got off the phone with a client before we stepped into the studio. These folks own a ranch up in Oregon—or farm, actually—and they just had a new lamb that was born right before we talked. She had to run out the door to chase off predators actually, but they had been accumulating precious metals for years. They listen to the Commentary. I got to know them more than a decade ago, but they said, "Kevin, I just want you to know as we go through this triangle update, is what we call it, we are really thinking about our grandkids at this point." He said, "A lot of people think about their kids for inheritance. We're already on grandkids." And I said, "Well, Dave calls that legacy. Legacy investing. It's a legacy mindset." There's a lot of things to count other than money, right? I mean, we value a lot of things. David: Sure. I mean, we're in the investment business. We're constantly toggling between present value and future value. We assign resources for a positive outcome in the future,…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
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Gold and precious metals saw more volatility over the last week, but overall strong in the beginning of this new year. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on February 5: The price of gold is up 3.6% to $2,862. However, gold did break above $2,900 in the futures market. The price of silver rose up 4.8% to $32.32. This has inched the gold to silver ratio down a couple of points to 88 to 1. Platinum is up about 3% to $1,008, from a week earlier. Palladium up about 3.8% to $1,015, rising from a week earlier as of recording. Looking at the broader markets… The S&P 500 moved sideways, and was at 6,058 as of recording. The US dollar index was down about 0.25% to $107.06. But it did reach $110 before making a pretty significant crash back down. A Strong January for Metals Looking back at January performance, precious metals across the board showed strength in the first month of the year. Gold closed out the month up 6.5%, while silver outperformed gold with a rise of 8.6%. It gets none of the attention, but that's because gold's at all time highs. Platinum rose up 8.1% in January, while palladium led the charge overall, up 10.6% by the end of the month. As discussed in our January 24th show, the commitment of traders continues to bet long on gold. We believe that gold could reach a new record high of $3,000 before we see a decline. Bond Market Stabilizes Despite interest rates shifting down 18%, the bond market looks pretty stable. The short-term one-year and two-year bond yields are down around 20%. But looking at the 10-year bond yield, it has only declined 10%. So despite the massive interest rate rise through 2022 into 2023, tapering off in 2024 and down a little bit at the end of last year, the bond rates have stabilized. The bond market is far bigger than the equities market, and it’s encouraging to see money moving into 10 year Treasurys — an indication that big money is happy with the direction the US is going and perhaps even hedging risk in the equity world. Volatility in Cryptos Bitcoin still looks relatively healthy, but Ethereum had a 36% drop in a day. And while it took a significant bounce up, it did also have a significant decline over the last couple weeks and months in some of the alternative cryptos. So we're seeing rampant volatility in certain places right now. While some investors will continue to beat the drum for this gold alternative, cryptocurrencies still haven’t shown the stability of precious metals. Gold is still the original money — real, tangible, and the true hedge against inflation. Protect Your Money With Gold Gold is a powerful safe haven and insurance policy against economic and political uncertainty. Now is the time to reach out to a trusted McAlvany advisor for precious metals investing advice. They are happy to speak with you about your investment goals and strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
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Radical Re-think On Dollar Boosts Gold's Future Read Doug Noland's Latest Credit Bubble Bulletin Read Morgan Lewis' Hard Asset Insights "If the US is to be the primary winner in the restructuring of the global system, it will come at the expense of our trade partners. Think about China and over a trillion dollars in Treasuries. Think about Japan. If that cycle has contributed to the hollowing out of our US manufacturing base, the course he's proposing is one that is decidedly dollar negative. So to boost the value of our trade partners' currencies, to devalue the dollar and rebuild our manufacturing base is a 180 from the conditions that have created our current system of trade and drive our import-export balances to the levels we have. Now, clearly we've got trade deficits on a gargantuan scale. I think we're on the cusp of a major monetary regime change." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick along with David McAlvany. Dave, there are times when the guys that we would go to say, "Hey, where is this going to end up?", like Doug Noland or Morgan Lewis or some of the people that help give us instruction. We go, "Okay, so Trump's doing this. Where is this going to end up?" When these guys themselves are saying, "Well, let's analyze it, but I have no idea." That's what it feels like right now, that nobody really knows. What does this look like as we recreate the entire financial and economic structure of America? David: Yeah, the idiom being caught off balance, I think has application because there's not an asset class that hasn't been sort of scratching their head, investors saying, "What exactly does this mean and what am I supposed to do about it?" So yes, there is a sense of being annoyed and disturbed and rattled, and we're seeing that show up in the form of volatility, for sure. Kevin: And that's why it would probably be a good idea for our listeners to go back, if they didn't hear the Tactical Short call with you and Doug last week. It's not only available in recorded form on our website, we'll go ahead and put that on the links, but it's transcripted as well if you'd rather read. David: Yeah. So if you don't want to spend two hours, I think— Last week Doug Noland and I recorded the Tac Short call. There is a brief version of it in the Credit Bubble Bulletin from the weekend. So if you weren't on the call, I insist you take 10 minutes to read this week's Credit Bubble Bulletin. If I told you your financial health depended on it, would you ignore that? And I do think your financial health depends on it. In the show notes, follow the link and just take 10 minutes, read the first part of the weekly Credit Bubble Bulletin. It's the weekly. We do a daily as well, which has the news feeds. So make sure and look for the weekly. Kevin: Well, and just to mention, you're just about to get on a plane, and I love it when you get a chance to go see your dad, I think he's going to be 85 in June, and your mom. But just for the listener's sake, we're recording this one day early, so anything that we say, there'll be a little bit of news events that come before the Wednesday publication of this show. David: Well, the last few weeks, every day there's been news items coming at us fast and furious. But yeah, you're right. My dad's 85 this year. Mom is a spry 78, but with a cancer recovery effort still in play there are even more reasons to be with them whenever possible. So if the events in the call today seem different by the time you're listening, I just wanted you have that context. Kevin: Well, and so let's start putting some things in context because over the last week, we talked about the DeepSeek shock. But we're seeing shocks in a lot of areas: cryptocurrencies, AI, DeepSeek, and honestly a lot of the ramifications from tariffs I'd like to just maybe talk about all of that today. David: Yeah. Last week was DeepSeek and a challenge to the AI narrative....…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
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Gold and precious metals were largely flat over the week, as broader markets gyrated on AI news from China and the Fed’s decision to keep rates steady. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on January 29: Gold is flat at $2,755 from a week earlier. Gold did touch up into its all-time high territory for a moment, but it didn’t reach its record. Silver is sitting at $30.65 — dead even from a week earlier. Silver did have a mid-week dip down 3%, but recovered by the time of recording. Platinum is up 1.5% to $972 from a week earlier. Palladium is down 1.5%, also at $972 from a week earlier. Looking at movement in the broader markets… The S&P 500 is down about 0.5% to 6,040 this week. It did put in a new high as well as about a 2% decline at one point in the immediate reaction of the AI news coming out of China. The US dollar is also dead even at $108. For the first time in quite a while, the dollar did go below $107 for a short period. Dr. Copper Shows Strength in Economy Looking at a chart of copper prices over the past year, the metal has shown a strong pendant formation. And when we look back over the last four years, copper shows its in a rising trend line. The shiny metal is nicknamed "Dr. Copper" because it is an indicator that reflects the health of the economy. With copper’s price rising steadily, the economy is growing stronger. Trump Picks a Fed Fight Trump is blaming Powell and the Fed for high inflation, and he wants the Fed to reduce the target for interest rates. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve indicated that they would keep interest rates steady and noted the lack of progress toward their 2% inflation rate goal. Cutting rates would further stimulate the economy, increasing the inflation rate and making it harder for people to afford staples like groceries and gas. As we’ve discussed in past episodes, the way to attack inflation is to curb overspending by Congress — an unpopular solution that can kill a political career. One thing that will preserve your purchasing power no matter what move the Fed makes? Turning your dollar bills into gold ounces. Invest in Gold Today Our team of advisors have decades of experience investing in gold and other precious metals, and they can help you find the best strategy to meet your unique needs. They are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556.…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
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1 Tactical Short 4th Quarter 2024 Recap 1:51:00
1:51:00
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Historic ‘24 Excess Portends Precarious 2025 MWM Q4 2024 Tactical Short Conference Call January 30, 2025 David: Good afternoon. This is David McAlvany. We'll go ahead and get started. This is our January 30th, 2025 Tactical Short conference call titled Historic 2024 Excess Portends Precarious 2025. Good afternoon. Thank you for participating in our fourth-quarter recap. As always, thank you to our valued account holders. We so greatly value our client relationships. With first-time listeners on today's call, we'll begin with some general information. And for those of you unfamiliar with Tactical Short, more detailed information is available at mcalvany.com/wealth/tactical-short/. If you'd like to explore next steps for opening a Tactical Short account or investigate how the service might complement your existing equity exposures, it's a good time to do so. The order of our call today will be my comments on performance followed by Doug's market commentary and then Q&A at the tail end. I have a number of questions already submitted. You may submit further questions to Ted via his email ted@mcalvany.com. And also, for inquiries on Tactical Short and its inclusion in your current strategies, you can also submit those inquiries to ted@mcavany.com. The objective of Tactical Short is to provide a professionally managed product that reduces the overall risk in a client's total investment portfolio, while at the same time providing downside protection in a global market backdrop with extraordinary uncertainty and extreme risk. The strategy is designed for separately managed accounts. It's investor friendly with full transparency, flexibility, reasonable fees, and no lockups. We have the flexibility to short stocks and ETFs and our plan has been to on occasion buy liquid listed put options. Shorting entails a unique set of risks we're set apart both by our analytical framework as well as our uncompromising focus on identifying and managing risk. Our Tactical Short strategy began the quarter with short exposure targeted at 80%. The target was held steady throughout the quarter, focused on the challenging backdrop for managing short exposure. The short in the S&P 500 ETF, SPY remains the default position for this high-risk environment. I'll give you an update on performance. Tactical Short accounts after fees returned negative 1.73 during Q4. The S&P 500 returned a positive 2.39. So for the quarter, Tactical Short accounts returned negative 72% of the S&P 500's positive return. As for one-year performance, Tactical Short after fees returned negative 15.32% versus the 25% return of the S&P, with Tactical Short losing 61.3% of the S&P 500's positive return. We regularly track Tactical Short performance versus three actively managed short-fund competitors. First, the Grizzly Short Fund, which returned a negative 1.64 during Q4, and over the past year Grizzly returned a negative 6.74. Ranger Equity Bear returned a negative 5.71 for the quarter, with a negative 7.97 for a one-year return. And Federated Prudent Bear returned a negative 0.68% during Q4 and a negative 12.32 for the one year. Tactical Short outperformed the actively managed bear funds for the quarter on average by 95 basis points. Tactical Short underperformed over the past year by an average 631 basis points. It has significantly outperformed, Tactical Short has, each of the bear funds since inception. From April 7th, 2017 inception through the end of the year, Tactical Short outperformed each of the three competitors by an average of 1,743 basis points or 17.43 percentage points. There are also the passive short index products. ProShares' short S&P 500 ETFs, which returned a negative 70 basis points for the quarter and a negative 13.51% for the past year. And the Rydex Inverse S&P 500 fund, which returned negative 0.53 in Q4, negative 13.08 for the one-year numbers. And then the PIMCO StocksPLUS Short Fund with a Q4 return of negative 15 b...…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
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1 Will DeepSeek Be Deepshock To The Market? 28:20
28:20
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NVIDIA Loses Over Half Trillion In One Day The World Needs Resources The Fed Can't Print DeepSink Is AI's Sputnik Moment "So earnings growth in the AI space, admittedly meteoric if not miraculous through the early quarters of 2024. Earnings growth slowed considerably in late 2024 and as we come into this year. And if the supply chain for AI is put under the microscope and found to be creating overcapacity, you've got an eerie echo from 1999 and 2000." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Before we start, Dave, let's go ahead and remind our listeners about the call with Doug Noland this week. David: Yeah, join Doug Noland and me on Thursday afternoon, 4:00 p.m. Eastern, 2:00 Mountain, for the Tactical Short. This is a Q4 recap conference call, “Historic ’24 Excess Portends Precarious 2025.” I announced this call three weeks ago, and the word "precarious” seemed out of place. The comment might not have made sense. Kevin: A little precarious now, though, huh? David: Yeah. Kevin: Yeah. David: Do market conditions seemed more precarious? I think so. Perceptions shift, and with them market pricing does as well. I highly recommend that you join us. If you are inadequately hedged, you can still remedy that. Get informed, register for the call, submit your questions ahead of time, and we'll do our best to address specific issues following the formal remarks. Short exposure has, as you might expect, been the inverse to the markets as they've been rising in recent years. You may not care about short exposure in a rising market without limits, but what about the limits? And what about a falling market? Are you adequately liquid? Do you have a form of financial insurance in place? We look forward to your presence on Thursday's call. Kevin: It's important to talk about hedges. I was thinking this week, Dave, when we saw DeepSeek come out. We can talk about that through the show, but I love South Pole history. I love Ernest Shackleton, or Robert Falcon Scott, or Roald Amundsen, and it reminded me of the story. You probably remember this, but in January of 1912, a very well-stocked team of 65, it started with 65 people. The last five to push to the South Pole for the English, it was Robert Falcon Scott, and four other guys. 65 people, hardware heavy. They had dogs, they had ponies, they had motors that they had to move, but there was a shock when they got there on January 17th, 1912. A Norwegian team had gotten there first. David: Almost a month earlier. Kevin: A month earlier, and they had 19 guys—19 in, 19 out. No one was lost. The Norwegians beat them. It was very light on the hardware. Scott was heavy on the hardware, and unfortunately the five that went in and came back out, all five were lost for the Scott team. So I'm wondering, Dave, if NVIDIA isn't a little bit like the Scott team right now, hardware heavy, and then you had DeepSeek this last week, come in and say, "Hey, you don't need that much hardware." David: Well, it's exactly right. You had a decline of $589 billion in a single day, and that marks the greatest concentrated single-company loss in financial history— Kevin: Wow. David: —in a 24-hour period. Kevin: Almost $600 billion lost. David: Forbes reports, "NVIDIA's nearly $600 billion market cap loss Monday is larger than the individual market values of all but 13 American companies. More than the market cap of titans like health insurer United Health, oil giant ExxonMobil, and retailer Costco. Kevin: Wow. David: And at issue, if Chinese company DeepSeek can do what the large language models do at a fraction of the cost with a fraction of the hardware, then you're looking at the AI supply chain in that Wile E. Coyote moment. Kevin: Wow. David: Gravity is in effect, and so the claim is that this more efficient open-source application was built for under $6 million, uses fewer than 10,…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
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Gold and precious metals continue their march higher this week, buoyed by continued enthusiasm for the new US president and administration. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of our recording on January 23: The price of gold is up 2.5%, sitting at around $2,756. That’s only about $35 away from its previous all-time high. The price of silver is up around 0.9% at $30.85. Platinum is up 2.8%, to $960. Palladium is up 3.9% at $1000, just slightly below platinum. Looking at the broader market… The S&P 500 is up about 2% this week to 6,091. The US dollar is down a little over 1% at $108.22. Big Money Bets on Gold Rise The Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows the aggregate holdings of different participants in the U.S. futures market. These are compiled and published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in the U.S. COT reports detail how many long, short, and spread positions make up the open interest. Looking at a recent report, we see that far more institutional investors have been betting long on gold futures. Their bets have paid off handsomely, as gold has recovered from its dip to rise back up to record levels. But will the managed money continue to speculate that gold will go up? Or will they start taking profits? Of course, it’s impossible to predict exactly how the price of gold will change. But here are a few scenarios to consider. Scenario 1: A Mild Selloff If there is an unwinding of those managed money speculative bets, it’s possible that we’ll see gold drop down closer to the lows seen in post-election November and December — potentially around the $2,500 per ounce range. If this happens, gold could trade sideways for a few months. Scenario 2: A Shallow Correction If instead there’s more of a correction, we might see gold in the intermediate term fall to a floor. A shallow correction would look like gold dropping to $2,350 per ounce. A deeper correction might be closer to where gold was during the post-pandemic highs, around $2,075. If silver decides to hold around its current level, that would open up a potential gold to silver ratio trade. That’s because the gold to silver ratio would be closer to 52:1 in this case. However, it looks less likely that this scenario would happen. Scenario 3: Untested Territory There’s a good possibility that a correction might not happen at all. And instead, gold would push up to new high levels into uncharted territory. If this happens, it’s possible that gold could climb to a new high around $3,500 per ounce. Looking at recent charting patterns, it is possible that gold could reach these new highs. Which means that investors waiting on the sidelines to catch the next dip would continue to miss out. Should you buy gold right now? The best way to know what would work for you is to consult a trusted, experienced precious metals professional. Get Started With Expert Advice Our advisors have decades of experience investing in gold and other precious metals, and they can help you find the best strategy to meet your unique needs. They are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556.…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
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1 The Trump Sounds & Volatility Shall Follow 33:17
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Executive Orders Signal Immediate Change Mr. Bond Vigilante Still Has The Strongest Say Uncertainty The Best Driver To Gold "So returning to the executive orders, at the end of page 2, I was saying, "Wow." At the end of page 5, each page with at least 10 executive orders on it, it was awe-inspiring, ambitious in scope, sure to offend, and FDR and Reagan both came to mind. Massive change, very disruptive to the status quo. From a market perspective, I kept thinking disruption, uncertainty. These are things that drive market volatility." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Well, David, all I can describe is sensory overload. I think about punk rock concerts back in the 1970s through the mid '80s. You had the bright lights, the strobes, you had the loud music, you had all these different things going on, which purposely are trying to create sensory overload. I wasn't really part of that movement, but I remember getting my pilot's license. And the guy who was checking me out was trying to do the same thing while I was flying a plane. Now, if I'm the markets right now, whether you're happy about Trump, whether you're not happy about Trump, but if I'm the markets, how in the world do I know what to do next? David: It's an amazing week. Normally on MLK day, I read a passage from MLK, Jr. and discuss it with my kids. Not this year. We've got the inauguration, the announcement of sweeping changes into the late hours of the evening. I was reading word for word the five pages of links to the new executive orders, redirecting the usual practice and had me a little bit distracted. So we've got the rescindment of 78 Biden-era executive actions. The second executive order stopped bureaucrats from issuing new regulations. The third mandated federal workers return to offices. Imagine that. Kevin: You got to go to work. David: I know. Kevin: You got to go to work. David: Ending government censorship, freezing hiring of the IRS agents, ending some birthright citizenships, signing pardons for 1,500 Jan. 6 prisoners, and then six commutations as a part of that. It goes on and on. Kevin: I told you, bright lights, strobe lights, sounds, it's all happening all at once. David: Yeah. Kevin: And it's presidential. I mean, these are executive orders, Dave. Nobody's voting on this. David: The one word I would apply to the markets going forward—reflecting on the knowns and the unknowns, the intended changes, and really the actual paths forward—is the word volatility. Kevin: Oh, sure. Well, what do you do when you have sensory overload? And again, there may be many really great long-term outcomes coming out of this, but what do you do in the meantime while things are shifting back and forth? David: I'm trying to replay in my mind Sid Vicious soundtracks, cassette tapes—because it would've been a cassette tape. The best way of describing the financial markets in the current context is like a vast casino. And again, you talk about sensory overload. Vegas has gotten a little bit better, even leaving the airport's not quite as loud as it used to be. But our current context is like a casino. You've got high stakes bets. They're rolling through constantly. You've got currency bets and fixed income bets and equity and option bets, cryptocurrency and commodity bets. And all of these bets are based on economic inputs. They're based on external factors which are deemed to tilt the odds in the favor of a certain outcome. Make no mistake, it is a casino and it's no longer clear to the currency players what those external factors are going to be. It's no longer clear to the fixed income players, the options traders, the commodity traders, and the equity operators just how those external factors are going to impact pricing. Kevin: Well, how about crypto? I mean, crypto just has one direction, doesn't it? David: Well,…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
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1 Markets Hold Steady Amid Incoming Inauguration 18:37
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The markets are sitting with bated breath ahead of the inauguration of President Trump. However, precious metals continue to show strength. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of this recording, January 15: The price of gold is up 1.3%, sitting at around $2,695. The price of silver is up 1.8% at $30.66. It is now comfortably above the $30 mark. Platinum is down 3.3%, to $934. But in the middle of the week, it did hit a high that it hadn’t reached since November 2024. Platinum is stair-stepping up. Palladium is up 5.2%, a big move up the day of recording. at $924, just slightly below platinum. Looking at the broader market… The S&P 500 is up about 1.1% this week to 5,954. It is on an upswing of a downward movement, as it has been stair-stepping down. The US dollar is even this week, hovering around $109.20. But the dollar did have an intraweek high as it broke above $110. If we could look into a crystal ball and predict the future, the outlook right now is one of great optimism There’s a consistent pattern that we’re following according to our election market expectation show. The honeymoon is over, and the markets are settling back into reality — that is, back into the trends that they were in before the election. Economic Watch The CPI report for December indicated that inflation is still hot, rising up 2.9% over the year. The core CPI figure, tracking food and energy prices, rose 0.2%. The markets reacted with enthusiasm, hoping for an additional rate cut by the Fed. The DJIA, S&P 500, and NASDAQ rose up around 2% on the news. Over the last few days, bond yields have been declining while prices continue to rise. Even though yields have declined, bonds appear to be in a holding pattern ahead of the inaugration. Gold to $3,000? For people holding gold, the fundamentals look good. We predict that we’ll be seeing gold peeking above $3,000 per ounce this spring. Gold rising up to $3,000 per ounce in 2025 is a conservative estimate, because that would be a 10% gain at its current price. If you look back over the last 50 years, you will see that gold has been gaining an average of 8.5% - 10% per year. Gold: Silver Ratio Trades As for an upcoming ratio trade between gold and silver, it will depend on whether the ratio widens or narrows to a favorable ratio. The price of silver dipped below $30 a bit earlier in the week. However, silver has bounced back strongly above $30. Silver still has a lot of upside potential, and it is undervalued right now. Industrial demand for silver continues to grow, especially with the development of new EV batteries that rely heavily on the white metal for their manufacturing. There’s also the potential for internal ratio trades — such as trading silver bars for junk silver or silver American eagles. Sometimes, the premiums on one product are significantly lower than for another product, and a trade will give you more ounces without paying for them. Get Started With Expert Advice Will there be a new ratio-trading opportunity coming up this year for you? The best way to know what your ideal next trade would look like is to speak with your McAlvany financial advisor. Our advisors have decades of experience investing in gold and other precious metals, and they can help you find the best strategy to meet your unique needs. They are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556.…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
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1 Your Mission Critical Checklist For 2025 45:43
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AI Tech Bubble Says, "Feed Me"! How Will Trump Respond To Financial Instability? The Fed Can't Get Longer Maturity Interest Rates To Go Down "This is one of the factors which is super bullish for gold. Bond markets are signaling a divergence for monetary policy, and implicitly saying that either fiscal commitments are already too great or inflation is coming back. Perhaps it's a combination of the two, but either way, yields are telling you where rates are headed next, and it's not lower. The implication is that financial market stability is very much in the cross hairs." —David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. David, I was just going back and looking at discussions we've had in the past on catastrophe math. Zeeman made that very famous back in the 1960s, 1970s, and what it basically boils down to is, certain factors build to a tension point, like a bridge. A bridge may work for 40 or 45 years and then suddenly collapse. And the question is, is there any math behind that? Is there any predictability in the timing behind that? And you've just brought up in our meeting the sand pile effect, same type of thing. Let's talk about that a little bit because there are some tensions building right now in one direction that can't hold forever. David: Well, first of all, welcome back. You had more eventful weekend than I did, and I'm glad you're in— Kevin: Speaking of catastrophe. Yeah. David: Yeah. You're in good repair, stitches and all. Kevin: Yeah. Yeah, emergency appendectomy, but boy, am I happy that we have a medical system that can actually get that kind of thing out. David: Well, looking ahead to two weeks out, we can put it on the calendar. January 30th, Doug and I will tackle perhaps the toughest analytical mashup ever on our quarterly Tactical Short call. Starting 2025, there is a confluence of major concerns—and this is to your point, Kevin. When you start looking at the various factors, you don't know, considering that sand pile effect, which grain is the culprit for the slide, but there's a confluence of major concerns, whether it's fiscal, economic, financial market—encompassing both equities and bonds, geopolitical and strategic considerations that make this Tactical Short call a feast for the inquisitive. And, I think, full of opportunity, if you are observant and in the markets and agile, assuming you can get a few of these macro themes right. I think the difference could be between your best performance in a calendar year or your worst, and 2025 is shaping up to be very, very interesting. Of great consequence long-term are the impacts on society as a larger expression of your own balance sheet expansion or balance sheet compression because there is a mirror, there is an echo, a reflection. Kevin: Yeah. We just heard Morgan give the update to our meeting today, and he said we have two major, major issues right now, inflation and a debt problem, the interest that we have to pay on our debt. And he calls that a debt spiral. It gets to the point where the Federal Reserve has lost control and we talk about catastrophe. You can have inflation and manage inflation if you don't have too much of a debt problem. You can have a debt problem if you don't have inflation, but when the two come together, it creates a major issue. And I know you've got some other major issues. I would imagine one of the issues you guys are going to talk about is the bond market, which reflects that. David: Well, again, one of the key issues there is with debt being at the level it's at, typically the way that you would fight inflation is by raising rates, except if you're raising rates because of how much debt we already have in play, the interest component is already at an overwhelming level. So to raise interest rates just piles on even more to the deficit via the interest component. And that is unique because typically a debt crisis can...…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
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Precious metals started the year strong, with prices rising higher across the board. Let’s take a look at where prices stand as of January 9: The price of gold is up 1.2% currently sitting at around $2,656. Looking back at 2024, gold ended last year strong — moving up about 27% throughout the year. The price of silver is up 4% to $30.11 so far in 2025. Silver rose up 22% in 2024, a good year though not quite as strong as gold. Platinum is up 8% so far in 2025, to $968. In 2024, platinum was actually down 10% — so now it’s about flat from a year earlier. Palladium is up about 2% so far in 2025 at $924, just slightly below platinum. Looking at the broader market… The S&P 500 is up about 1% this week, but it did push up about 24% last year. The US dollar is up about 0.5% to $109.20, also starting the year strong. The dollar index was up about 7% in 2024. Dollar, Gold in Lockstep It is very unusual to have a strong gold market coupled with a strong dollar market. They usually have an inverse relationship, so this is a strange time. In case you missed it, we did a deep dive into the fundamentals of gold investing on our last show. This explains more about how gold moves compared to other asset classes. Inflation Watch It appears as if the market is pricing in expected inflation. If you look at the deficit from the first fiscal quarter of 2024 to the first fiscal quarter of 2025, the US deficit is up over 60% from where it was a year ago. And it looks like it will continue along the same trajectory. The US has a strong economy. Commodity prices are rising according to CPI numbers and inflation is starting to rise. Trump will likely want the Fed to cut interest rates at their meeting in January. A rate cut would drive the credit markets, borrowing and potentially spending. But analysts have noted that there’s less than a 50% change of a rate cut in January because the economic numbers aren’t indicating a rate cut is needed. Gold to Silver Ratio at 90:1 It’s important to note that the gold to silver ratio has shifted again to 90:1 at the close of 2024. The last six times that the ratio has widened that much, there has been a massive rally in silver. The minimum rally in 2024 was a 26% move in the price of silver. In the largest rally, the price of silver gained 79%. So this is a massive opportunity to purchase silver now and see big gains in the near future. Buying Opportunities For silver, the most intriguing product right now is junk silver. Even though silver has been flat to down through the close of 2024, the premiums have come down in that particular product. Junk silver is less per ounce now than the big thousand ounce silver bullion bar. Looking at the collectible gold coin market, US Double Eagles are priced at the same price per coin as Gold Eagles. Fractional European 100-year-old coins are in some instances cheaper than one ounce Gold Eagles. There are some great values right now — if you know where to look. Get Started With Expert Advice Working with an expert in precious metals will help you find the best buying opportunities. If you haven’t had a complimentary meeting with an advisor at McAlvany Precious Metals to talk through your financial objectives, now is a great time to start. Our advisors have decades of experience investing in gold and other precious metals, and they can help you find the best strategy to meet your unique needs. They are happy to speak with you about your strategy for investing in gold and other precious metals. Reach us at 800-525-9556.…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
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1 Trump Is Bold But Liquidity Is A Coward 29:56
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Interest Rates Rise In Worldwide Competition For Liquidity Mag 7 Stocks Represent 70% Of Trading Volume Gold & Dollar Rise In 2024, What Does That Mean? "Yeah. I mean, breadth is the idea of how spread out the participation is in a market move to higher levels. Are all boats rising with the tide or just a few? And when you have narrow breadth, it's just a few names participating. It's not a good sign when breadth is narrow in only a few names—70% of trading volume in seven names, 20% of global market cap. Breadth this narrow is, to say the least, worrying." - David McAlvany Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Well, David, where the holidays fell this year—Christmas on a Wednesday, New Year's on a Wednesday—with my travel plans, with my kids' travel plans, I honestly feel like, well, happy New Year. It feels like the holiday was about a month. It was wonderful. It was wonderful. But gosh, it's sort of nice to be back in the pattern. David: It is good to be back. I love the holidays. I love the guests and hosting parties. I love the family time and the change of pace. And I love getting back to routines as well. As the new year starts, there are the common reflections on the past year and anticipations or goal setting for the new year. And everybody has prognostications of what will be in 2025. I feel this with clients, the number of requests to do financial planning reviews, how are we doing. It increases dramatically in the first quarter. And I encourage you to do that as well. The next four years are likely to have surprises geopolitically, economically, and in the financial markets. And I think getting your bearings is a good idea. So whether it's a quick look at how you're balancing liquidity, precious metals, growth and income assets, real estate, or factoring in new situations like retirement, a new job, other new variables, our staff are a great resource to bring perspective and counsel. Kevin: Well, and you know, Dave, I dream triangles. Okay? I love the triangle, the foundation, the preservation element, and then of course the left side, which has to do with growth and income, and the right side, your cash savings. And that's what I encourage my clients to do. I have, I think, trained— We talk about habits and how you can train yourself in habits. You can also help train others to have good habits. I've been really thinking about this. One of the great habits of what we've done is we draw triangles and we do that analysis, the how-we-are-doing analysis. So that's what I would encourage our clients to do too. I've got my clients calling me right now and saying, "Hey, let's do a triangle update." David: Yeah, I think probably the underemphasized portion of the perspective triangle for most investors is the metals piece. We think of it as insurance, that's the role that it plays in an overall portfolio. From a practical standpoint, it's there as a reserve. And you don't know you need the reserves until you need the reserves. We're watching a lot of currency volatility, 2024, and that's a big question. When do these countries who are defending their currency, supporting their currency with tens of billions of dollars, sometimes in a week, when do they run thin on reserves? That's when you end up with real currency crisis. You can get through any kind of crisis—whether it's an emotional crisis, a spiritual crisis, a family crisis, a financial crisis—if you're adequately reserved, and I think that's worth taking stock of. Kevin: You know, Dave, that's a great point as far as reserves emotionally, spiritually, financially. I remember I was walking out to the car the other day, and sometimes in the first of the year I can also feel a heaviness. It's like, "Wow, what have I got to do this year? There's things I've got to do." I felt this heaviness, and I realized I had forgotten to be thankful.…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
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1 Our Annual Q&A Part 2 – Happy New Year! 37:20
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Morgan Lewis answers your question on Gold Recycling/Dollar Recycling Philip Wortman on Crypto and Gold What indicators does David McAlvany look at consistently? Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. Happy New Year! I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Well, I sure enjoyed the questions last week, Dave, and look forward to what you have to say on the questions this week. We're never disappointed, are we? David: No, and I'm grateful to be closing out another year with the Weekly Commentary. Kevin, thank you for your efforts throughout the year. I enjoy the engagement with our audience and am grateful for the questions that have been sent in. You know, some of the questions are beyond what I have the capability to answer, so we bring in Philip Wortman and Morgan Lewis to tackle a couple of the ones that are just right down their alley. Kevin: And I'm looking forward to that. Well, tell you what, let's just go ahead and get started. Jeff asks, "Do you see the stock market correcting, and if so, when will that happen? And will it be a minor correction or a large pullback?" The second part of the question is the commercial real estate market, Dave, in America. "Is it still in trouble? If so, how will that affect the banking system? And thanks for your efforts in putting the weekly podcast together." That was Jeff. David: The answer is yes. No idea when we have a market correction. We just know the context is set, and by any measure valuation, it will happen. When is, of course, the billion-dollar question. A '30s-style crash? I think that's less likely. A '70s-style crash, where performance in real inflation-adjusted terms ends up over a course of time being as grave as the 1930s? I think that kind of pressured environment is more probable. So it's either large and all at once, or less extreme—minor, if you want to think of it in those terms—extended, and excruciating over time because of the impact of inflation. Commercial real estate, there are really big refinance needs in 2025. Estimates are between one and two trillion dollars, and so it makes sense that we would see pressure in commercial real estate. But I think it obviously depends on liquidity dynamics at the time. Your ability to refinance that debt, if it is with commercial lenders or if it's in the private markets, it all depends on the current liquidity dynamics and financial market conditions at that time. Part of the commercial real estate market is finding a bottom, part of the commercial real estate market has yet to materially correct. So if we assume that there is another leg or another segment within that asset class—commercial real estate—then I think your banks—commercial banks—will see a lot of stress on their CRE portfolios. Kevin: Dave, this next question reminds me of a conversation I had with a client the other day. He said he's got a Wednesday morning ritual. He pours a cup of coffee, he listens to the Commentary every Wednesday, and I was surprised at how many people do that. They have rituals for actually sitting down and listening. So James—this question reminded me of this—he said, "It's been great listening to the show over the last few months. It's become part of my Wednesday morning routine at this point. I've got a few questions, no pressure to answer any or all of them." Dave, I know you're probably going to answer them, so I'll ask you the first one. "Are there any often overlooked market indicators that you'll be paying attention to in 2025?" David: Well, I love the rituals. It also reminds me of a friend of ours, a client of ours in Mexico, and that's a common thing. Friday evening at the end of a work week, popcorn, a glass of wine, and the Weekly Commentary. Kevin: That sounds like fun. David: And he and his wife have been doing that for the better part of 15 years. Kevin: Wow. Wow. So what are you looking at in 2025? David: Yeah. Yeah,…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
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With this mid-week Christmas break, we won’t be going into the usual analysis as we normally do. Instead, we’re going to dive deeper into the fundamentals and a recap of why gold is a great investment tool. Regardless of what will happen economically or geopolitically, some things don't change and those fundamentals are what really move the gold price. Despite a lot of volatility in different investment categories and what policy makers do, gold responds and reacts to underlying fundamentals. Who Buys Gold These Days? There’s a misconception that people who buy gold are somewhat “weird.” And while you might hold a greater percentage of your portfolio in gold if you lose faith in the system, there’s nothing strange about owning gold. Investors buy gold because they want to have real money that’s valued anywhere. Gold is recognized everywhere around the world. You can get on an airplane and fly anywhere in the world, hold up a gold coin and smile. Even if you don’t speak the language, people will know that you’re friendly and you have money. It’s a universal language. Preserves Your Purchasing Power Gold today will buy what it buys in five years regardless of the price. It's a constant store of value. It hasn't changed. Our friend Kevin Orrick on our McAlvany Weekly Commentary talks about how an ounce of gold buys a loaf of bread every day for a year. It's done that for thousands of years, and it still does today. If you’re considering owning gold, it’s smart to think of it as a legacy investment, something that you can hold. Insurance for Your Portfolio Gold is often described as insurance for the rest of the portfolio, but aside from the Justin Case, you went into all these different things that are, because it's guaranteed. Just look at the track record of gold over the years, and you’ll see that it is asset preservation. Tangible and Real Gold gets you out of “paper promise” assets into a tangible commodity. We're not talking about ETFs, mining shares or stocks. We're talking about owning physical coins and bars in various forms in and through various vehicles. It could be in your IRA or in a regular account in a vault. Tangible precious metals also provide a privacy component in the instance that you are holding it at home. What Moves the Gold Price? Most factors that move the price of gold have to do with fear or greed. For example, geopolitical fears such as global instability and threats of war — when the future looks uncertain, fear drives demand and increases the price. Another example is central bank demand — What do they know that we don't know? Why are they stocking up on gold? Obviously they're looking at the same things we see, but thinking, “wow, I don't like what I see. I think I'm going to increase my allocation to gold.” How Much Gold Should You Own? If you want to fund your retirement with gold, the best way to think about it is how much you will spend per month. What's your burn rate? You need to know your projection as well — do you need something like a 10 year or a 20 year annuity? When do you want to retire? You can then put that amount into ounces of gold. For example, if you need two ounces or three ounces a month to live, you start accumulating that ounce by ounce. The other way to look at owning precious metals in our Investment Triangle model. A third of your liquid wealth should be in physical gold. A third on the left hand side of the triangle is for growth and income. A third on the right hand side of the triangle is liquid Add Gold Ounces Today Call us at (800) 525-9556 so we can speak with you individually and walk through your own portfolio. Our team of experts can help you understand the whys and the hows with acquiring gold.…
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McAlvany Weekly Commentary
![McAlvany Weekly Commentary podcast artwork](/static/images/64pixel.png)
Kevin: Welcome to the McAlvany Weekly Commentary. Merry Christmas and happy Hanukkah. I'm Kevin Orrick, along with David McAlvany. Well, David, it's fun recording these programs. I had lunch with your son, who is a freshman in college, and I told him, "I'm thinking back 25 years, 26 years when we had lunch together, and what's happened, and then, before that, me working for your dad." What's amazing is these conversations have turned into the Weekly Commentary. And as I was talking to your son, I was thinking, wow, no wonder. There's so many interesting things to talk about, books, the things that we've studied, just our thoughts and dreams moving forward. The questions that our clients ask, I was reading through them and I was thinking, they're really family. Don't you feel like this is sort of family? David: Oh, I do. It's an extended conversation. It's a lot of what we experience, the two of us, when we get together for the regular Commentary meetings on a Monday afternoon and evening. Some of the questions are beyond what I have the capability to answer, so this will be the first Q&A that we bring in Philip Wortman and Morgan Lewis to tackle a couple of the ones that are just right down their alley. Kevin: I'm looking forward to that. Well, tell you what? Let's just go ahead and get started. And I hate to start saying that John Maynard Keynes might be right on something, but here's the question, "Dear Kevin and David, John Maynard Keynes was a complex human, but one thing he got absolutely right was the relationship between macroeconomics and wars. You and Doug (Doug Noland) have been warning of macro risks in China for years now, and we see those warnings playing out in real time. However, as China's economy falters, so does their ability to invade Taiwan. Are the Chinese still serious, and are they a serious military threat to Taiwan? Thanks, Seth." David: Well, thank you Seth. Yes, the Chinese economy has experienced much slower growth, and their primary source of growth has been impaired for many years from the real estate sector. And even now we're beginning to see yields on those companies, so their borrowing costs—numbers that you just can't even wrap your minds around. The very best case scenario is Vanke going from 17.5% to 21.5% just in the last two weeks. And then, on top of that, you've got other yields for companies that are 500%, 1,000%, 12,000%, and higher. So it's basically saying, in that sector, is game over. They do still maintain GDP growth well above that of the U.S. Even if you discount the official statistics by 30 or 40%, I would argue that the case for war does not go away. In fact, it increases with economic desperation. There's the aspect of public distraction on the one hand, playing to nationalist themes, and there's also the positive impact to youth employment, what is today an unemployment problem, both inside the military via conscription and in manufacturing employment growth, as well, for military hardware. So discouraged and unemployed youth need purpose. Low levels of inflation in China also leave them with the latitude to increase spending and money printing with less immediate negative impact to their consumers. Gas war is inflationary, so that's one other aspect of that John Maynard Keynes macroeconomic connection between war and the economy and macroeconomics, but the deflationary malaise they've been locked in is creating a dynamic which increases social and political pressure domestically. Thus far, they've not announced any radical fiscal measures to break that trend, and so I think it's worth keeping in mind that war could very well be an opportunity to redirect that negative attention. I think they understand the global demand for semiconductors and other manufactured goods from Taiwan. They may be inclined to invade Taiwan as if it were a hostile takeover of an industry or company. Not everyone's happy about a change in management, but your suppliers,…
مرحبًا بك في مشغل أف ام!
يقوم برنامج مشغل أف أم بمسح الويب للحصول على بودكاست عالية الجودة لتستمتع بها الآن. إنه أفضل تطبيق بودكاست ويعمل على أجهزة اندرويد والأيفون والويب. قم بالتسجيل لمزامنة الاشتراكات عبر الأجهزة.