Power Plays and Peace Deals: The Middle East’s Wild Year

Secure Line

In this episode of Secure Line, Stephanie Carvin, Leah West, and Jessica Davis speak with returning guest Thomas Juneau to unpack a turbulent year in the Middle East and what it means for Canada. Juneau argues that U.S. policy under President Trump lacks a consistent doctrine and is driven largely by personal involvement that helped force a fragile Gaza ceasefire through pressure on Israel and coordination with key regional actors. He adds that Canada’s recognition of Palestinian statehood is not a historic shift but a calibrated diplomatic signal aligned with Europe and meant to strengthen the Palestinian Authority while maintaining Canada’s long-standing proximity to Israel.

The discussion surveys a shifting balance of power. Juneau says Iran has endured its hardest stretch in decades: Assad is gone, Hezbollah and Hamas are weakened, and direct clashes with Israel exposed Iran’s conventional military limits. Syria’s new leadership under Ahmed al-Sharaa is fragile and pragmatic, with Turkey emerging as a relative winner. Qatar’s mediator role is reaffirmed—despite the shock of an Israeli strike in Doha and ensuing U.S. damage control that highlighted Qatar’s importance and accelerated ties amid a luxury-plane controversy. In Yemen, the Houthis have effectively won the civil war; U.S. strikes without a political strategy are counterproductive, and threats to Red Sea shipping are likely to resume.

For Canada, Juneau is blunt about limits. Ottawa will not lead peace talks, but it can matter by acting with allies through humanitarian and development assistance, security-sector training for Palestinian forces, and modest re-engagement with Gulf partners as part of broader trade and security diversification. He also notes China’s growing commercial footprint alongside a deliberately constrained security role, and he questions how long that gap can persist without deeper political or military commitments.