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المحتوى المقدم من Ryan Ray. يتم تحميل جميع محتويات البودكاست بما في ذلك الحلقات والرسومات وأوصاف البودكاست وتقديمها مباشرةً بواسطة Ryan Ray أو شريك منصة البودكاست الخاص بهم. إذا كنت تعتقد أن شخصًا ما يستخدم عملك المحمي بحقوق الطبع والنشر دون إذنك، فيمكنك اتباع العملية الموضحة هنا https://ar.player.fm/legal.
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205 - When will us production pick up? & Dr. Dean Foreman with API

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Manage episode 341694022 series 1758294
المحتوى المقدم من Ryan Ray. يتم تحميل جميع محتويات البودكاست بما في ذلك الحلقات والرسومات وأوصاف البودكاست وتقديمها مباشرةً بواسطة Ryan Ray أو شريك منصة البودكاست الخاص بهم. إذا كنت تعتقد أن شخصًا ما يستخدم عملك المحمي بحقوق الطبع والنشر دون إذنك، فيمكنك اتباع العملية الموضحة هنا https://ar.player.fm/legal.
Private Oil Drillers Are Hitting Their Limits
https://www.wsj.com/articles/private-drillers-are-hitting-their-limits-11663579982
- "they tapped many of their best drilling spots, and will have to ease their rapid pace of drilling as their inventory shrinks"
- US oil production could decrease by "hundreds of thousands of barrels per day" - that's not very specific. Is going from 11.8 million bpd to 11.7 million bpd
- Private producers hold around one-fifth of the Permian’s most valuable acreage
- OPEC toys with the market when they don't hit their quota
EPA reverses course, rejects permit for massive oil exporting project offshore from Corpus Christi
https://www.texastribune.org/2022/09/02/texas-oil-epa-export-terminal-corpus-christi/amp/
- Supposed to rival LOOP in size
- Permit to emit more VOCs than allowable was given by Trump admin but revoked by Biden admin
- Mixed message sending is the biggest problem
IEA Lowers 2022 Oil Demand Forecast Amid China Lockdowns, Economic Growth Fears
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/iea-lowers-2022-oil-demand-050501715.html
Oil Traders Should Consider Global Demand Forecasts From IEA And OPEC
https://www.investing.com/analysis/oil-traders-should-consider-global-demand-forecasts-from-iea-and-opec-200629867
- IEA forecast is based on Chinese demand falling and then increasing
- Is this realistic?
- Real estate investors can't get their money out of China, China wants to keep Chinese money in China
- Xi to be elected President for life
- Will China attack Taiwan after this? No real indication that China is going to attack Taiwan. Is this "American propaganda?" (Noam Chomsky's argument)
- If China doesn't attack Taiwan what does that mean for oil demand?
API Monthly Statistical Report and Quarterly Outlook
- Rig activity in US is still down more than 1/5 - combo of energy policy, supply issues, labor issues
- Private equity companies are leading oil production this year
- Without completion crew we are seeing DUCs accrue in various regions
- Are we running low on acreage? NOW there are plenty of sweet spot good rocks to drill. Problem is labor and supply chain constraints. Fiscal constraints are mitigated. Capital access is an issue still.
- Lack of support for leasing on federal lands, steel tariffs cause problems, no real backing of oil and gas production from administration.
- We are sitting with the lowest SPR since 1985 but consumption is 3 or 4 times higher than in 1985.
- Problems getting high voltage lines in communities to build charging stations is a huge challenge so charging stations are putting in diesel generators in California.
- Sheer enormity of oil and gas consumption is being ignored. Can't put all the resources into something that is only 10% of global energy (renewables). Neglecting what shoulders the bulk of global energy systems is ... going to have consequences.
- Only reason we have oil prices that are lower is because we are papering over the shortage in supply by releasing SPR.
- Dichotomy between news about "fears of recession" and the economic indicators.
- All in holistic view of oil inventories - they are down. US has basically pushed intelf into a recession with the interest rate increases. Europe is now following
- China has potentially got large economic growth.
- Dollar is at all time high, making imports for American consumers less expensive. US exports are less price competitive abroad. In the past this creates a wider trade deficit. Erodes investment. Petrochemical margins have now turned negative. Not worth it to build another ethane cracker on the gulf coast, for example. Not just about the sheer productively of the rocks. Its about the entire chain. Global economy is close to 3% growth, which means need 1.5 million bpd more oil each year.
- Huge uncertainty now, especially with Russia sanctions coming online soon.
- Ultimately supply and demand will determine prices, not the speculative momentum.Rate increases and pricing in recession is causing the opposite to happen with the speculators.
- The fact that the economy is expected to actually be "historically strong"
- Savings rate is not at recessionary levels and delinquencies in American households is not historically high, only edged up a little. Rebound in consumer sentiment.
- IEA, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and OPEC have all said that they don't see investment patterns enough to meet oil demand. EIA forecast is 101 million bpd of global oil demand in 2023. Not enough investment to meet this.
- Threat to US and global energy security
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com
  continue reading

275 حلقات

Artwork
iconمشاركة
 
Manage episode 341694022 series 1758294
المحتوى المقدم من Ryan Ray. يتم تحميل جميع محتويات البودكاست بما في ذلك الحلقات والرسومات وأوصاف البودكاست وتقديمها مباشرةً بواسطة Ryan Ray أو شريك منصة البودكاست الخاص بهم. إذا كنت تعتقد أن شخصًا ما يستخدم عملك المحمي بحقوق الطبع والنشر دون إذنك، فيمكنك اتباع العملية الموضحة هنا https://ar.player.fm/legal.
Private Oil Drillers Are Hitting Their Limits
https://www.wsj.com/articles/private-drillers-are-hitting-their-limits-11663579982
- "they tapped many of their best drilling spots, and will have to ease their rapid pace of drilling as their inventory shrinks"
- US oil production could decrease by "hundreds of thousands of barrels per day" - that's not very specific. Is going from 11.8 million bpd to 11.7 million bpd
- Private producers hold around one-fifth of the Permian’s most valuable acreage
- OPEC toys with the market when they don't hit their quota
EPA reverses course, rejects permit for massive oil exporting project offshore from Corpus Christi
https://www.texastribune.org/2022/09/02/texas-oil-epa-export-terminal-corpus-christi/amp/
- Supposed to rival LOOP in size
- Permit to emit more VOCs than allowable was given by Trump admin but revoked by Biden admin
- Mixed message sending is the biggest problem
IEA Lowers 2022 Oil Demand Forecast Amid China Lockdowns, Economic Growth Fears
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/iea-lowers-2022-oil-demand-050501715.html
Oil Traders Should Consider Global Demand Forecasts From IEA And OPEC
https://www.investing.com/analysis/oil-traders-should-consider-global-demand-forecasts-from-iea-and-opec-200629867
- IEA forecast is based on Chinese demand falling and then increasing
- Is this realistic?
- Real estate investors can't get their money out of China, China wants to keep Chinese money in China
- Xi to be elected President for life
- Will China attack Taiwan after this? No real indication that China is going to attack Taiwan. Is this "American propaganda?" (Noam Chomsky's argument)
- If China doesn't attack Taiwan what does that mean for oil demand?
API Monthly Statistical Report and Quarterly Outlook
- Rig activity in US is still down more than 1/5 - combo of energy policy, supply issues, labor issues
- Private equity companies are leading oil production this year
- Without completion crew we are seeing DUCs accrue in various regions
- Are we running low on acreage? NOW there are plenty of sweet spot good rocks to drill. Problem is labor and supply chain constraints. Fiscal constraints are mitigated. Capital access is an issue still.
- Lack of support for leasing on federal lands, steel tariffs cause problems, no real backing of oil and gas production from administration.
- We are sitting with the lowest SPR since 1985 but consumption is 3 or 4 times higher than in 1985.
- Problems getting high voltage lines in communities to build charging stations is a huge challenge so charging stations are putting in diesel generators in California.
- Sheer enormity of oil and gas consumption is being ignored. Can't put all the resources into something that is only 10% of global energy (renewables). Neglecting what shoulders the bulk of global energy systems is ... going to have consequences.
- Only reason we have oil prices that are lower is because we are papering over the shortage in supply by releasing SPR.
- Dichotomy between news about "fears of recession" and the economic indicators.
- All in holistic view of oil inventories - they are down. US has basically pushed intelf into a recession with the interest rate increases. Europe is now following
- China has potentially got large economic growth.
- Dollar is at all time high, making imports for American consumers less expensive. US exports are less price competitive abroad. In the past this creates a wider trade deficit. Erodes investment. Petrochemical margins have now turned negative. Not worth it to build another ethane cracker on the gulf coast, for example. Not just about the sheer productively of the rocks. Its about the entire chain. Global economy is close to 3% growth, which means need 1.5 million bpd more oil each year.
- Huge uncertainty now, especially with Russia sanctions coming online soon.
- Ultimately supply and demand will determine prices, not the speculative momentum.Rate increases and pricing in recession is causing the opposite to happen with the speculators.
- The fact that the economy is expected to actually be "historically strong"
- Savings rate is not at recessionary levels and delinquencies in American households is not historically high, only edged up a little. Rebound in consumer sentiment.
- IEA, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and OPEC have all said that they don't see investment patterns enough to meet oil demand. EIA forecast is 101 million bpd of global oil demand in 2023. Not enough investment to meet this.
- Threat to US and global energy security
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com
  continue reading

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