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My mission to change the narrative of mental health | Glenn Close 13:44

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Legendary actor and mental health advocate Glenn Close is on a quest to change how we think about mental health, starting with her decision to speak out about her own family's struggles — a brave choice considering the stigma that pervades the topic. This week, we're revisiting this sweeping conversation with TEDWomen curator Pat Mitchell, where Close shares the inspiration behind the advocacy group she founded to combat the crisis, underscoring the transformative power of community and the critical need for comprehensive mental health care systems. Want to help shape TED’s shows going forward? Fill out our survey ! Become a TED Member today at ted.com/join Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.…

Podcast – Naval

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Podcast – Naval

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Podcast – Naval

1
Externalities: Calculating the Hidden Costs of Products

منذ 6 years

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Podcast: Apple · Spotify · Overcast · Download Externalities let you account for the true cost of products by including hidden costs like environmental damage. Nivi: What’s a mispriced externality ? You mentioned it on a previous episode . Naval : An externality is where there’s an additional cost imposed by whatever product is being produced or consumed, that’s not accounted for in the price of the product. This can happen for many reasons. Sometimes you can fix it by putting the cost back into the price. Some of the most ardent critics of capitalism argue it’s destroying the environment. If you throw away capitalism because it’s destroying the environment, then guess what—we’re all headed back to pre-industrial times. That’s not going to be a good thing. Pricing externalities properly is more effective than feel-good measures Because the environment is finite and precious, we have to price it properly and fold that back into the cost of products and services. If people are wasting water, releasing hydrocarbons into the atmosphere or polluting in other ways, society should charge them what it costs to clean up the pollution and return the environment to a pristine state. Perhaps that price has to be very, very, very high. If you raise the price high enough, you’ll knock out pollution. That’s much better than feel-good measures like banning plastic bags or restricting showers during a drought. Properly pricing externalities can save resources in a tremendous way California likes to run declarations and ads to scare people into avoiding showers during droughts. It would be better to raise the price of fresh water. The average consumer might pay a few pennies more for a shower; but the almond farmers—who consume a lot of water—will cut back and almond farming may move to a part of the country where water is more abundant. Properly pricing externalities can save resources in a tremendous way. It’s a good framework to use when you want to do things like save the environment, rather than doing feel-good things that won’t actually amount to anything.…

Podcast – Naval

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Net Present Value: What Future Income Is Worth Today

منذ 6 years

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Podcast: Apple · Spotify · Overcast · Download Calculate what future income is worth today by applying a discount to its future value. Nivi: Let’s talk about net present value (NPV). Naval: Net present value is when you say, “That stream of payments I’m going to get in the future—what’s it worth today?” Here’s a common example: You’re joining a startup and getting stock options, and the founder says, “This company is going to be worth $1 billion, and I’m giving you 0.1% of the company; therefore, you’re getting $1 million worth of stock.” Figure out what future income is worth today by applying a discount rate The founder is negotiating based on what it’s going to be worth in the future. You have to figure out what it’s worth today by applying a discount rate, or an interest rate, that accounts for the massive risk startups face. You’ll end up with the amount the company is actually worth today. That’s the price at which a venture capitalist would invest in the company. If the founder recently raised a round at a $10 million valuation, then the company’s only worth 1% of what the founder says it will be worth. So your $1 million package is actually worth $10,000. You should get very comfortable doing rough net present value calculations in your head.…

Podcast – Naval

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Consumer Surplus: Getting More Than You Paid For

منذ 6 years

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Podcast: Apple · Spotify · Overcast · Download A lot of people are willing to pay more than what companies charge. Naval: Consumer surplus and producer surplus are important concepts. Consumer surplus is the excess value you get from something when you pay less than you were willing to pay. I get a lot of joy out of my morning Starbucks coffee. Obviously I’ve made some money. So if my coffee cost $20, I would pay it. But Starbucks doesn’t know that. They can’t price the coffee at $20 just for me, because they’re selling the exact same product to others. So I’m getting a lot of consumer surplus out of the coffee. Consumer surplus is the extra value you get when you pay less than you were willing All businesses generate consumer surplus. It’s a good thing to keep in mind when someone’s harping on about how evil companies are. Amazon might be a trillion-dollar company, but I’ll bet they’re generating trillions of dollars in consumer surplus through people’s willingness to pay for convenience. A lot of people are willing to pay more than what Amazon charges.…

Podcast – Naval

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Price Discrimination: Charge Some People More

منذ 6 years

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Podcast: Apple · Spotify · Overcast · Download You can charge people for extras based on their propensity to pay. Nivi: Are there any other microeconomic concepts, outside of zero marginal cost of replication and scale economies , that are important to understand? Naval: Price discrimination is important. It means you can charge people based on their propensity to pay. Now, you can’t charge people different amounts just because you don’t like them. You have to offer them something extra. But it has to be something rich people care about. Business-class seats routinely cost five or 10 times more than economy seats. But it costs the airline much less—maybe two or three times more than a standard seat—to provide perks like wider seats, more legroom and free drinks. Rich people and large enterprises are willing to pay more Price discrimination works because rich people are willing to pay more. You just have to give them the extra little things they need to signal they’re rich or that little bit of comfort they want. A lot of enterprise software companies use price discrimination, especially with freemium products. The free or low-price version will do almost everything you want. But if you want the version that’s extra secure or hosted on your site or has multiple-user administration so the IT person can monitor everything, you’ll find yourself paying 10 or 100 times more.…

Podcast – Naval

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Compounding Relationships Make Life Easier

منذ 6 years

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Podcast: Apple · Spotify · Overcast · Download Life gets a lot easier when you know someone’s got your back. Nivi: Earlier, we talked about compound interest , but we didn’t dig into it much. Naval: Relationships offer a good example of compound interest. Once you’ve been in a good relationship with somebody for a while—whether it’s business or romantic—life gets a lot easier because you know that person’s got your back. You don’t have to keep questioning. If I’m doing a deal with someone I’ve worked with for 20 years and there is mutual trust, we don’t have to read the legal contracts. Maybe we don’t even need to create legal contracts; maybe we can do it with a handshake. That kind of trust makes it very easy to do business. Mutual trust makes it easy to do business If Nivi and I start another company and things aren’t working out, I know we’re both going to be extremely reasonable about deciding what to do—how to exit or shut it down. Or if we’re scaling it, how to bring in new people. We have mutual trust, and that allows us to start businesses more easily and compounds the effect. The most under-recognized reason startups fail is because the founders fall apart. A startup is so difficult to pull off, so removing potential friction points between founders can be the difference between success and failure. It’s better to have a few compounding relationships than many shallow ones Nivi: There are a couple of non-intuitive things about compounding. The first is that most of the benefits come at the end, so you may not see huge benefits up front. Sam Altman wrote, “ I always want it to be a project that, if successful, will make the rest of my career look like a footnote .” Again, most of the benefits of compounding come at the end. Another thing that’s non-intuitive about compounding: It’s better to have a few deep compounding relationships than many shallow, non-compounding relationships. It takes just as much effort to create a small business as a large one Naval: One thing about business that people don’t realize: it takes just as much effort to create a small business as it does to create a large one. Whether you’re Elon Musk or the guy running three Italian restaurants in town, you’re working 80 hours a week; you’re sweating bullets; you’re hiring and firing people; you’re trying to balance the books; it’s highly stressful; and it takes years and years of your life. In one case, you get companies worth $50-$100 billion and everyone’s adulation. In the other, you might make a little bit of money and you’ve got some nice restaurants. So think big.…

Podcast – Naval

1
Turn Short-Term Games Into Long-Term Games

منذ 6 years

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Podcast: Apple · Spotify · Overcast · Download Improve your leverage in negotiations by turning short-term relationships into long-term ones. Nivi: Do you want to talk about Pareto optimal ? Naval: Pareto optimal is another concept from game theory, along with Pareto superior. Pareto superior means something is better in some ways while being equal or better in other ways. It’s not worse in any way. This is an important concept when you’re negotiating. If you can make a solution Pareto superior to where it was before, you will always do that. Pareto optimal solutions require a trade-off to improve any criterion Pareto optimal is when the solution is the best it can possibly be and you can’t change it without making it worse in at least one dimension. There is a hard trade-off from this point forward. These are important concepts to understand when you’re involved in a big negotiation. Negotiations are won by whoever cares less I generally say, though: “ Negotiations are won by whoever cares less .” Negotiation is about not wanting it too badly. If you want something too badly, the other person can extract more value from you. If someone is taking advantage of you in a negotiation, your best option is to turn it from a short-term game into a long-term game. Try to make it a repeat game. Try to bring reputation into the negotiation. Try to include other people who may want to play games with this person in the future. An example of a high-cost, low-information single-move game is having your house renovated. Contractors are notorious for overbooking, ripping people off, and being unaccountable. I’m sure contractors have their own side to it: “The homeowner has unreasonable demands.” “We found problems.” “The homeowner doesn’t want to pay for it.” “They don’t understand; they’re low-information buyers.” It’s an expensive transaction. Historically it’s been very hard to find good contractors; and the contractor has little information on the homeowner. Convert single-move games to multi-move games So you try to go through friends. You try to find people with good reputations. You’re converting an expensive single-move game with a high probability of cheating on both sides into a multi-move game. One way to do that is to say: “Actually, I need two different projects done. The first project we’ll do together, and based on that I’ll decide if we do the second project.” Another way is to say: “I’m going to do this project with you, and I have three friends who want projects done who are waiting to see the outcome of this project.” Another way is to write a Yelp or Thumbtack review—especially if the contractor operates within a community and wants to protect their reputation in that community. These are all ways to turn a single-move game into a longer term game and get past a position of poor negotiating leverage and poor information.…

Podcast – Naval

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Schelling Point: Cooperating Without Communicating

منذ 6 years

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Podcast: Apple · Spotify · Overcast · Download People who can’t communicate can cooperate by anticipating the other person’s actions. Nivi: Let’s talk about Schelling points. Naval: The Schelling point is a game theory concept made famous by Thomas Schelling in his book, The Strategy of Conflict , which I recommend. It’s about multiplayer games where people respond based on what they think the other person’s response will be. He came up with a mathematical formalization to answer: How do you get people who cannot communicate with each other to coordinate? Use social norms to cooperate when you can’t communicate Suppose I want to meet with you, but I don’t tell you where or when to meet. You also want to meet with me, but we can’t communicate. That sounds like an impossible problem to solve—we can’t do it. But not quite. You can use social norms to converge on a Schelling point. I know you’re rational and educated. And you know I’m rational and educated. We’re both going to start thinking. When will we meet? If we have to pick an arbitrary date, we’ll probably pick New Year’s Eve. What time will we meet? Midnight or 12:01 a.m. Where will we meet? If we’re Americans, the big meeting spot is probably New York City, the most important city. Where in New York City will we meet? Probably under the clock at Grand Central Station. Maybe you end up at the Empire State Building, but not likely. You can find Schelling points in business, art and politics There are many games—whether it’s business or art or politics—where you can find a Schelling point. So you can cooperate with the other person, even when you can’t communicate. Here’s a simple example: Suppose two companies are competing heavily and hold an oligopoly. Let’s say the price fluctuates between $8 and $12 for whatever the service is. Don’t be surprised if they converge on $10 without ever talking to each other.…

Podcast – Naval

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Kelly Criterion: Avoid Ruin

منذ 6 years

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Podcast: Apple · Spotify · Overcast · Download Don’t ruin your reputation or get wiped to zero. Nivi: Let’s chat about the Kelly criterion. Naval: The Kelly criterion is a popularized mathematical formulation of a simple concept. The simple concept is: Don’t risk everything. Stay out of jail. Don’t bet everything on one big gamble. Be careful how much you bet each time, so you don’t lose the whole kitty. If you’re a gambler, the Kelly criterion mathematically formulates how much you should wager per hand , even if you have an edge— because even when you have an edge, you can still lose. Let’s say you have 51-to-49 edge. Every gambler knows not to bet the whole kitty on that 51-to-49 edge — because you could lose everything and won’t get to come back to the average. Nassim Taleb famously talks about ergodicity , which is a fancy word for a simple concept: What is true for 100 people on average isn’t the same as one person averaging that same thing 100 times. Ruining your reputation is the same as getting wiped to zero The easiest way to see that is with Russian roulette . Say six people play Russian roulette one time each, and each winner gets $1 billion. One person ends up dead and five people get $1 billion. Compare that to one person playing Russian roulette six times with the same gun. They are never going to end up a billionaire—they will be dead and worth zero. So risk-taking—especially when the averages that are calculated across large populations—is not always rational. The Kelly criterion helps you avoid ruin. The number one way people get ruined in modern business is not by betting too much; it’s by cutting corners and doing unethical or downright illegal things. Ending up in an orange jumpsuit in prison or ruining your reputation is the same as getting wiped to zero—so never do those things.…

Podcast – Naval

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Principal-Agent Problem: Act Like an Owner

منذ 6 years

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Podcast: Apple · Spotify · Overcast · Download If you think and act like an owner, it’s only a matter of time until you become an owner. Nivi: We spoke earlier about picking a business model that has leverage from scale economies, network effects and zero marginal cost of replication . There were a few other ideas on the cutting-room floor that I want to go through with you. The first one is the principal-agent problem . Naval: So mental models are all the rage. Everyone’s trying to become smarter by adopting mental models. I think mental models are interesting, but I don’t think explicitly in terms of mental-model checklists. I know Charlie Munger does, but that’s just not how I think. A principal is an owner; an agent is an employee Instead, I tend to focus on the few lessons I’ve learned over and over in life that I think are incredibly important and seem to apply almost universally. One that keeps coming up from microeconomics—because as we’ve established, macroeconomics is not really worth spending time on—is what’s called the principal-agent problem. In this case it’s a principal, who is a person; rather than a principle that you would follow. A principal is an owner. An agent works for the owner, so you can think of an agent as an employee. The difference between a founder and an employee is the difference between a principal and an agent. I can summarize the principal-agent problem with a famous quote attributed to Napoleon or Julius Caesar: “If you want it done, Go. If not, Send.” Which is to say: If you want to do something right, do it yourself; because other people just don’t care enough. A principal’s incentives are different than an agent’s incentives Now, the principal-agent problem pops up everywhere. In microeconomics, they try to characterize it this way: The principal’s incentives are different than the agent’s incentives, so the owner of the business wants what is best for the business and will make the most money. The agent generally wants whatever will look good to the principal, or might make them the most friends in the neighborhood or in the business, or might make them personally the most money. You see this a lot with hired-gun CEOs running public companies, where the ownership of the public company is distributed so widely that there’s no principal remaining. Nobody owns more than 1% of the company. The CEO takes charge, stuffs the board with their buddies and then starts issuing themselves low-priced stock options, or doing a lot of stock buybacks because their compensation is based directly tied to the stock price. If you can work on incentives, don’t work on anything else Agents have a way of hacking systems. This is what makes incentive design so difficult. As Charlie Munger says, “ Never, ever, think about something else when you should be thinking about the power of incentives. ” Almost all human behavior can be explained by incentives. The study of signaling is seeing what people do despite what they say. People are much more honest with their actions than they are with their words. You have to get the incentives right to get people to behave correctly. It’s a very difficult problem because people aren’t coin-operated. The good ones are not just looking for money—they’re also looking for status and meaning in what they do. As a business owner you are always going to be dealing with the principal-agent problem. You’re always going to be trying to figure out: How do I make this person think like me? How do I incent them? How do I give them founder mentality? Only founders can fully appreciate the importance of founder mentality and just how difficult and gnarly the principal-agent problem is. When you do deals, it’s better to have the same incentives If you are a principal, you want to spend a lot of your time thinking about this problem. You want to be generous with your top lieutenants — in terms of ownership and incentives — even if they don’t necessarily realize it; because over time they will and you want them to be aligned with you. When you do business deals, it’s better to have an aligned partnership where you both have the same incentives than a partnership where you have the advantage in the deal. Because eventually the other person will figure it and the partnership will fall apart. Either way, it’s not going to be one of those things that you can invest in and enjoy the benefits of compound interest over decades. If you’re an employee, your most important job is to think like a principal Finally, if you’re in a role where you’re an agent — you’re an employee — then your most important job is to think like a principal. The more you can think like a principal, the better off you’re going to be long-term. Train yourself how to think like a principal, and eventually you will become a principal. If you align yourself with a good principal, they will promote you or empower you or give you accountability or leverage that may be way out of proportion to your relatively menial role. I’m always impressed by founders who promote young people through the ranks and allow them to skip multiple levels despite their lack of experience. Invariably it happens because this agent — who’s way deep down in the organization — thinks like a principal. If you can hack your way through the principal-agent problem, you’ll probably solve half of what it takes to run a company. Nivi: The reason I asked about this one first is because I feel like I never see the principal-agent problem in my work. I tend to work in small teams where everybody is highly economically aligned, and the people have been filtered for a commitment to the mission, and everybody else who doesn’t work out moves on to another role elsewhere. Naval: These are all heuristics that you have designed to avoid having to deal with the single biggest problem in management. Deal with small firms to avoid the principal-agent problem Another example of a heuristic that helps you route around the principal-agent problem is to deal with the smallest firms possible. For example, when I hire a lawyer or a banker or even an accountant to work on my deals, I’ve become very cognizant about the size of the firm. Bigger firms — all other things being equal — are generally worse than small ones. Yes, the big firm has more experience. Yes, they have more people. Yes, they have a bigger brand. But you’ll find the principal and the agent are highly separated. Very often the principal will sell you and convince you to work with the firm, but then all the work will be done by an agent who simply doesn’t care as much. You end up getting substandard service. I prefer to work with boutiques. My ideal law firm is a law firm of one. My ideal banker is a solo banker. Now, you’re making other sacrifices and trade-offs in terms of that person’s resources — and you are betting big on that person. But you’ve got one throat to choke. There’s no one else to point fingers at; there’s nowhere to run. The accountability is extremely high. If you are an agent, the best way to operate is to ask, “What would the founder do?” If you think like the owner and you act like the owner, it’s only a matter of time until you become the owner.…

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Podcast – Naval

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The Let Them Theory: A Life-Changing Tool That Millions of People Can't Stop Talking About

The Let Them Theory: A Life-Changing Tool That Millions of People Can't Stop Talking About

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The Let Them Theory: A Life-Changing Tool That Millions of People Can't Stop Talking About

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